US$51.4bn
Alphabet, Q3 2026
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Markets & Investment · updated 31 Oct 2026
Following the money into AI infrastructure
Billions are flowing into AI chips, data centres and power. See what the biggest companies have spent, what they plan, what they have signed and what is only rumoured, each figure labelled and sourced.
Not investment advice. Figures come from company filings, investor relations pages and named publishers. Forecasts are the companies' or publishers' own, shown with their date. We do not set price targets or make recommendations.
Confirmed
US$201.9bn
filed capex of Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta in Q3 2026 (purchases of property and equipment)
Source: SEC filings (EDGAR)
Confirmed
+108%
year on year against Q3 2025, our calculation from the same filings
Commentary: our calculation
Live
US$12.76/W
average cost to build in Europe, up 13% in a year, the highest of any region
Source: Turner & Townsend via Construction Briefing (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
US$63bn
financing for Broadcom AI chips leased to Anthropic (26 Oct 2026)
Source: Broadcom (opens in a new tab)
Quarterly capex as filed
Purchases of property and equipment from each company's 10-Q and 10-K. Microsoft's fiscal quarters are shown by the calendar quarter they end in. Oracle is left out because its quarters end on different dates. Tap a legend name to hide or show a company.
Source: US Securities and Exchange Commission: EDGAR XBRL company facts (10-Q and 10-K filings) (opens in a new tab). Latest filings accessed 31 Oct 2026. Each quarter links to its filing in the table above.
Show the data as a table
| Quarter | Alphabet | Microsoft | Amazon | Meta | Four-company total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | US$13.1bn | US$14.9bn | US$22.6bn | US$8.3bn | US$58.9bn |
| Q4 2024 | US$14.3bn | US$15.8bn | US$27.8bn | US$14.4bn | US$72.3bn |
| Q1 2025 | US$17.2bn | US$16.7bn | US$25.0bn | US$12.9bn | US$71.9bn |
| Q2 2025 | US$22.4bn | US$17.1bn | US$32.2bn | US$16.5bn | US$88.2bn |
| Q3 2025 | US$24.0bn | US$19.4bn | US$35.1bn | US$18.8bn | US$97.3bn |
| Q4 2025 | US$27.9bn | US$29.9bn | US$39.5bn | US$21.4bn | US$118.6bn |
| Q1 2026 | US$35.7bn | US$30.9bn | US$44.2bn | US$19.0bn | US$129.8bn |
| Q2 2026 | US$44.9bn | US$35.8bn | US$54.2bn | US$30.1bn | US$165.1bn |
| Q3 2026 | US$51.4bn | US$39.4bn | US$77.3bn | US$33.9bn | US$201.9bn |
How the AI buildout is financed
Five kinds of money behind AI data centres, from cash already spent to unconfirmed reports. Each figure is sourced further down this page. They measure different things over different periods, so they are never added up.
- FiledSpent from company budgetsUS$201.9bnAlphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta combined, Q3 2026, from filings
- ForecastPlanned in company guidanceUS$90bn to US$220bnRange of 2026 capex guidance per company, each with its own basis
- CommittedLong-term compute commitmentsUS$542bn to US$567bnAnthropic, disclosed future payments
- CommittedChip and lease financingUS$63bnBanks and Blackstone finance Broadcom AI chips leased to Anthropic, 26 Oct 2026
- Reported, not confirmedReported deals2Media reports not confirmed by the companies
How to read these figures
- Filed
- Money already spent and reported in a regulatory filing for a stated period.
- Forecast
- A company's own guidance about future spending. It can change.
- Committed
- Contractual future payments a company has disclosed, such as leases and purchase commitments. Not yet spent.
- Reported, not confirmed
- A media report, usually citing unnamed people. Not confirmed by the companies.
- Operational vs Planned
- Capacity running today vs capacity a company says it intends to build.
- Fiscal periods
- Microsoft's year ends on 30 June and Oracle's on 31 May, so their quarters are labelled with their own fiscal names. Calendar-quarter totals include only companies whose quarters end on the same dates.
- Funding vs valuation
- Funding is money raised. Valuation is the price investors put on the whole company. We never add one to the other.
Spent: latest quarter Filed
US$39.4bn
Microsoft, Q1 FY2027
US$77.3bn
Amazon, Q3 2026
US$33.9bn
Meta, Q3 2026
US$28.5bn
Oracle, Q1 FY2027
Show data and filings
| Company | Quarter | Purchases of property and equipment | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | Q3 2026, ended 30 Sept 2026 calendar year | US$51.4bn | Derived from year-to-date filing figures. Filing (opens in a new tab), accessed 31 Oct 2026 |
| Microsoft | Q1 FY2027, ended 30 Sept 2026 fiscal year ending 30 June | US$39.4bn | As filed. Filing (opens in a new tab), accessed 31 Oct 2026 |
| Amazon | Q3 2026, ended 30 Sept 2026 calendar year | US$77.3bn | As filed. Filing (opens in a new tab), accessed 31 Oct 2026 |
| Meta | Q3 2026, ended 30 Sept 2026 calendar year | US$33.9bn | Derived from year-to-date filing figures. Filing (opens in a new tab), accessed 31 Oct 2026 |
| Oracle | Q1 FY2027, ended 31 Aug 2026 fiscal year ending 31 May | US$28.5bn | As filed. Filing (opens in a new tab), accessed 19 Oct 2026 |
Excludes equipment under finance leases, so it can be lower than capex quoted on earnings calls. Full history and charts: Market intelligence.
Analysis: the AI capex surge, power prices, building spend and Gulf money in six charts
Our commentary (not advice): the four companies filed US$201.9bn of capex in Q3 2026, 108% more than a year earlier and 3.4 times the US$58.9bn of Q3 2024. The largest single quarter in the set was Amazon in Q3 2026, at US$77.3bn. These are cash payments only. Equipment taken on finance leases is not included, which is why company capex guidance below can be higher.
Each bar runs to the low end of the company's own guidance, and the darker tip shows the range up to the high end (or a single figure where it gave one). Bases differ: Microsoft and Meta include finance leases, Amazon guides on cash capex net of proceeds and incentives, and Oracle's fiscal year runs June to May. So the bars show each company's plan, not a like-for-like ranking.
Sources: Microsoft Investor Relations: Fiscal Year 2027 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call (opens in a new tab) (given 28 Oct 2026); CNBC: Alphabet (GOOGL) earnings Q3 2026 (opens in a new tab) (given 28 Oct 2026); Amazon.com, Inc.: Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Results (opens in a new tab) (given 29 Oct 2026); Meta Platforms (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Meta Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab) (given 21 Oct 2026); The Motley Fool (call transcript): Oracle (ORCL) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript (opens in a new tab) (given 10 Sept 2026).
Show the data as a table
| Company | Guidance | Period | Basis | Given |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | about US$170bn | Calendar year (stated on the 28 October 2026 call) | Capital expenditure including finance leases (Microsoft records the full principal value of finance leases in capex at lease commencement) | 28 Oct 2026 |
| Alphabet | US$195bn to US$205bn | 2026 | Company-wide capital expenditure | 28 Oct 2026 |
| Amazon | about US$220bn | 2026 | Cash capital expenditures (Amazon's own measure, net of proceeds and incentives, so it differs from gross purchases of property and equipment) | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Meta | US$135bn to US$145bn | 2026 | Capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases | 21 Oct 2026 |
| Oracle | US$90bn to US$95bn | Fiscal 2027 (June 2026 to May 2027) | Capital expenditure; Oracle also said net cash capex, net of customer prepayments, would be not more than $70 billion | 10 Sept 2026 |
Hyperscaler free cash flow: is capex now bigger than the cash coming in? Filed
Not investment advice. Filed cash-flow figures from each company's 10-Q and 10-K. Free cash flow here is our own calculation (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment), which may differ from the companies' own measures. No forecasts.
−US$34.8bn
Amazon: free cash flow, Q3 2026 (capex 182% of operating cash flow)
−US$9.1bn
Alphabet: free cash flow, Q3 2026 (capex 121% of operating cash flow)
−US$1.2bn
Meta: free cash flow, Q3 2026 (capex 104% of operating cash flow)
US$18.6bn
Microsoft: free cash flow, Q3 2026 (capex 68% of operating cash flow)
Sums of the four companies' filed figures per calendar quarter. Free cash flow bars below zero (red) mean the four together spent more on property and equipment than their operations brought in. Capex excludes equipment taken on finance leases. Tap a legend name to hide or show a series.
Source: US Securities and Exchange Commission: EDGAR XBRL company concept: net cash provided by operating activities (opens in a new tab) (one file per company) and the capex filings linked on our statistics page. Accessed 1 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Quarter | Operating cash flow | Capex | Free cash flow (our calculation) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | US$115.6bn | US$58.9bn | US$56.7bn |
| Q4 2024 | US$135.0bn | US$72.3bn | US$62.7bn |
| Q1 2025 | US$114.2bn | US$71.9bn | US$42.3bn |
| Q2 2025 | US$128.5bn | US$88.2bn | US$40.2bn |
| Q3 2025 | US$159.0bn | US$97.3bn | US$61.7bn |
| Q4 2025 | US$178.8bn | US$118.6bn | US$60.2bn |
| Q1 2026 | US$150.7bn | US$129.8bn | US$21.0bn |
| Q2 2026 | US$171.8bn | US$165.1bn | US$6.7bn |
| Q3 2026 | US$175.5bn | US$201.9bn | minus US$26.4bn |
Purchases of property and equipment divided by net cash from operating activities in the same quarter, our calculation from the filings. Above 100% (red) means the quarter's capex was larger than the cash its operations produced.
Source: US Securities and Exchange Commission: EDGAR XBRL company concept: net cash provided by operating activities (opens in a new tab). Accessed 1 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Operating cash flow Q3 2026 | Capex Q3 2026 | Ratio Q3 2025 | Ratio Q3 2026 | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | US$42.4bn | US$77.3bn | 99% | 182% | SEC EDGAR (opens in a new tab) |
| Alphabet | US$42.3bn | US$51.4bn | 49% | 121% | SEC EDGAR (opens in a new tab) |
| Meta | US$32.8bn | US$33.9bn | 63% | 104% | SEC EDGAR (opens in a new tab) |
| Microsoft | US$58.0bn | US$39.4bn | 43% | 68% | SEC EDGAR (opens in a new tab) |
Our commentary (not advice): in Q3 2026 the four companies brought in US$175.5bn from operations and spent US$201.9bn on property and equipment, so on our calculation their combined free cash flow was minus US$26.4bn, against US$61.7bn a year earlier. Amazon, Alphabet and Meta spent more than their operating cash flow in the quarter. Below zero, the gap has to be covered by cash on hand or new financing, which is why financing deals such as the US$63bn Broadcom chip lease vehicle below matter for suppliers' order books. For engineers and suppliers, this is cash already paid, not just guidance.
Indicative construction cost per watt for a typical 60 MW design, as published in Turner & Townsend's tenth Data Centre Construction Cost Index (62 markets, over 500 projects, survey of 401 industry leaders). Europe averages US$12.76 per watt (up 13% year on year, the largest regional rise), against US$12.10 in Asia, US$12.06 in North America and US$9.93 in the Middle East.
Tokyo
Zurich
Singapore
Copenhagen
Oslo
Stockholm
Helsinki
London
Sources: Turner & Townsend: Data centre construction cost index 2026-27: cost trends (opens in a new tab) Published 20 Oct 2026, accessed 31 Oct 2026. Zurich, Singapore, London and regional averages: Construction Briefing (reporting Turner & Townsend's index): Revealed: world's costliest, most competitive places to build data centres (opens in a new tab) Published 26 Oct 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Market | US$ per watt (2026-27 index) |
|---|---|
| Tokyo | US$18.28 |
| Zurich | US$15.93 |
| Singapore | US$15.39 |
| Copenhagen | US$14.41 |
| Oslo | US$13.95 |
| Stockholm | US$13.92 |
| Helsinki | US$13.33 |
| London | US$12.95 |
| Europe (regional average) | US$12.76 |
| Asia (regional average) | US$12.10 |
| North America (regional average) | US$12.06 |
| Middle East (regional average) | US$9.93 |
Our commentary (not advice): four of the five most expensive European markets are Nordic capitals, the places that attract AI campuses with cheap clean power and cool air. Comparing editions as published, London went from US$12.00 to US$12.95 per watt (8%) and Tokyo from US$15.20 to US$18.28 (20%). Index methods can change between editions, so treat this as a rough trend. 2025 figures: Turner & Townsend: AI data center rush raises alarm over construction supply chain (Data center construction cost index 2025-2026 press release) (opens in a new tab). Regional detail: UK and Europe data centres.
RTO-wide Base Residual Auction clearing price for unforced capacity (UCAP). From 2026/27 to 2028/29 the price cleared at a FERC-approved price cap, so the true market price would have been higher. PJM's own simulation without the cap and floor gives US$554.72 for 2028/29. Delivery years run June to May. Darker bars are years that cleared at the cap.
Source: PJM Interconnection: 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (opens in a new tab) Published 14 Jul 2026, accessed 31 Oct 2026. Data centre share of the demand rise: PJM Inside Lines: PJM auction procures 134,479 MW of generation resources (2027/2028 auction) (opens in a new tab)
Show the data as a table
| Delivery year (June to May) | Clearing price, US$ per MW-day (UCAP) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2018/19 | US$164.77 | |
| 2019/20 | US$100.00 | |
| 2020/21 | US$76.53 | |
| 2021/22 | US$140.00 | |
| 2022/23 | US$50.00 | |
| 2023/24 | US$34.13 | |
| 2024/25 | US$28.92 | |
| 2025/26 | US$269.92 | |
| 2026/27 | US$329.17 | Cleared at the cap |
| 2027/28 | US$333.44 | Cleared at the cap |
| 2028/29 | US$325.00 | Cleared at the cap |
Our commentary (not advice): PJM's capacity price, paid to keep enough generation available for the region's grid, went from US$28.92 per MW-day for 2024/25 to US$325.00 for 2028/29, about 11 times higher. PJM said nearly 5,100 MW of the 5,250 MW rise in forecast peak demand for 2027/28 came from data centres. PJM puts cleared capacity multiplied by the price at about US$16.4bn for 2028/29, though not all load pays the auction price. For data centre developers this shows up as higher power bills and more pressure to bring their own generation. Regional detail: Northern Virginia and the PJM grid.
US power: what capacity costs and what utilities plan to spend
Not investment advice. PJM's auction value is a grid-operator figure, AEP's plan is a company plan (not money spent), and utility pipelines use each company's own definitions. Full detail: US data centre power.
PJM's figure: cleared megawatts times the clearing price in each zone. PJM says it is not the total cost to consumers, because load hedged through self-supply or bilateral contracts does not pay the auction price. Its own simulation with no price cap or floor puts 2028/29 at US$29.7bn. Darker bars are years that cleared at the cap.
Source: PJM Interconnection: 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (opens in a new tab) Published 14 Jul 2026, accessed 31 Oct 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Delivery year | Cleared value (US$bn) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2018/19 | US$10.9bn | |
| 2019/20 | US$7.0bn | |
| 2020/21 | US$7.0bn | |
| 2021/22 | US$9.3bn | |
| 2022/23 | US$3.9bn | |
| 2023/24 | US$2.2bn | |
| 2024/25 | US$2.2bn | |
| 2025/26 | US$14.7bn | |
| 2026/27 | US$16.1bn | Cleared at the cap |
| 2027/28 | US$16.4bn | Cleared at the cap |
| 2028/29 | US$16.4bn | Cleared at the cap |
AEP's own plan as reported by Utility Dive from its third-quarter 2026 call on 28 October 2026. The new plan runs through 2031 and also includes about US$8bn for renewable energy. These are planned amounts, not money spent. AEP said the rise is driven by generation and transmission needed for contracted load, mostly data centres.
Source: Utility Dive: AEP increases investment plan 30% on generation, transmission spending (opens in a new tab) Published 29 Oct 2026, accessed 31 Oct 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Part of plan | Previous plan | New plan (Oct 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Whole plan | US$78bn | US$100bn |
| Transmission | US$33bn | US$37bn |
| Gas-fired generation | US$13bn | US$20bn |
Projected · Pipeline in contracting stages
over 54 GW
Dominion Energy
Data centre capacity in various stages of contracting, including over 12 GW under signed electric service agreements. Over 6 GW was added since the end of 2025 (13%).
Source: The Motley Fool: Dominion Energy (D) Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed · Contracted load through 2031
84 GW
American Electric Power
Contracted load up 22% from 69 GW a quarter earlier, mainly SB Energy's 10.4 GW data centre campus in Piketon, Ohio. AEP has 14.4 GW of active requests for generation from its utilities.
Confirmed · Contracted large load
17 GW
Southern Company
Contracted large-load customers across 31 projects, with 8 GW more in late stages and a prospective pipeline above 75 GW. Over 1.2 GW of data centre load is already online.
Source: Southern Company: Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call slides (opens in a new tab)
Our commentary (not advice): the money now moving in US power has two sides. Buyers of capacity in PJM face a cleared value of US$16.4bn a year, about 7 times the 2024/25 level, and PJM's simulation without the cap is US$29.7bn. On the supply side, AEP raised its five-year plan from US$78bn to US$100bn, with gas-fired generation up 54% on our calculation. Utility pipelines are far larger than the load actually running today, so how much of them turns into contracts and connections is the number to watch.
Entergy US utility capex: who plans to spend most on the grid for data centres? Forecast
Not investment advice. These are each utility's own five-year capital plans (company forecasts of planned spending, not money spent), from SEC filings, results releases and an earnings call presentation. The windows differ (2026 to 2030 or 2027 to 2031), so the plans are shown side by side and never added up. Shares by function and yearly totals are our calculation from the filed figures. We do not rate the shares.
Key takeaways
- Duke Energy (US$103bn) and AEP (US$100bn) now each plan to spend about US$100bn in five years. AEP's plan rose from US$78bn, as reported by Utility Dive: AEP increases investment plan 30% on generation, transmission spending (opens in a new tab).
- Entergy puts about 67% of its US$66.5bn plan into generation, with spending peaking in 2027. AEP spends most on transmission.
- Xcel's US$70bn base plan leaves out investment for future large load customers, so data centre contracts would come on top. Duke says signed data centre contracts could add US$5bn to US$10bn to its plan.
Data centres need power before they need cooling. When a utility signs large-load contracts it has to build generation, substations and transmission lines first, and that spending shows up in these plans years before a data hall is energised. For power buyers, developers, EPC contractors and suppliers of switchgear, transformers and cooling, the plans show where grid capacity is being built and how fast. Pipelines in gigawatts, on each utility's own definition, are on US data centre power.
Projected
US$103bn
Largest five-year plan in this group: Duke Energy, 2026 to 2030
Projected
US$16.8bn
Entergy's planned capital investment in 2027, the peak year of its 2026 to 2030 plan (our sum of the filed lines)
Projected
67%
Share of Entergy's 2026 to 2030 plan going to generation (our calculation)
Projected
US$26.2bn
New debt Xcel plans to raise to fund its 2027 to 2031 base plan, next to US$8bn of equity
Source: Xcel Energy (SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.01): Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Report (opens in a new tab)
Each bar is the company's own plan for the years shown under its name. Windows differ, so the bars are not added up and are not a ranking of who serves the most data centres. Hover or tap a bar for the basis and date.
Sources: Duke Energy (SEC Form 8-K exhibit): Duke Energy reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results (opens in a new tab); American Electric Power: AEP Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings, Expands Capital Plan and Increases Growth Outlook (opens in a new tab); Southern Company: Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call presentation (opens in a new tab); Xcel Energy (SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.01): Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Report (opens in a new tab); Entergy Corporation (SEC Form 10-Q): Entergy Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (opens in a new tab); Dominion Energy (SEC Form 10-K): Dominion Energy annual report on Form 10-K for 2025 (opens in a new tab). Accessed 2 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Utility | Plan (US$bn) | Years | Given | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Energy | US$103bn | 2026 to 2030 | 10 Feb 2026 | Five-year capital plan announced with Q4 2025 results. Duke said on its Q2 2026 call that signed data centre contracts could add US$5bn to US$10bn on top |
| American Electric Power | US$100bn | 2027 to 2031 | 28 Oct 2026 | Expanded five-year plan announced with Q3 2026 results (US$100.4bn in AEP's Q3 2026 Form 10-Q) |
| Southern Company | US$81.2bn | 2026 to 2030 | 19 Feb 2026 | Projected capital investment of about US$81bn (US$81.2bn in the company view table). Excludes potential spending from the Alabama and Georgia generation requests for proposals. Q3 2026 results are due on 5 November 2026 |
| Xcel Energy | US$70bn | 2027 to 2031 | 29 Oct 2026 | Base capital forecast. Xcel says it excludes investments to serve future large load customers and incremental generation from current requests for proposals |
| Entergy | US$66.53bn | 2026 to 2030 | 31 Jul 2026 | Planned construction and capital investments in Entergy's Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, raised mainly for generation in Entergy Louisiana's March 2026 application. Entergy affirmed its financial outlooks with Q3 2026 results on 2 November 2026 |
| Dominion Energy | US$65bn | 2026 to 2030 | 23 Feb 2026 | Approximately US$65bn capital expenditure plan in Dominion's 2025 Form 10-K, reaffirmed with Q3 2026 results on 30 October 2026 |
US$bn over each plan's five years. Xcel: Renewables plus Electric Generation are grouped as generation, Natural Gas plus Other as other. Entergy: Utility Support as other. AEP gave only rounded figures for transmission (about US$37bn), generation (US$36bn) and distribution (about US$22bn), so its 'other' is the remainder of US$100bn, our calculation. Only these three utilities publish a split we can group this way.
Sources: Entergy Corporation (SEC Form 10-Q): Entergy Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (opens in a new tab); American Electric Power: AEP Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings, Expands Capital Plan and Increases Growth Outlook (opens in a new tab); Xcel Energy (SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.01): Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Report (opens in a new tab). Accessed 2 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Utility and years | Generation (US$bn) | Transmission (US$bn) | Distribution (US$bn) | Other (US$bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entergy (2026 to 2030) | 44.6 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 1.7 |
| AEP (2027 to 2031) | 36.0 | 37.0 | 22.0 | 5.0 |
| Xcel Energy (2027 to 2031) | 30.6 | 18.6 | 13.7 | 7.2 |
Entergy planned construction and capital investments by year, US$m, from its Q2 2026 Form 10-Q. Generation is the largest line in every year. Entergy says the increase in this plan is mainly for generation in Entergy Louisiana's March 2026 application.
Source: Entergy Corporation (SEC Form 10-Q): Entergy Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (opens in a new tab) Accessed 2 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Year | Generation (US$m) | Transmission (US$m) | Distribution (US$m) | Utility support (US$m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7,735 | 2,250 | 2,725 | 455 |
| 2027 | 11,765 | 2,685 | 2,055 | 340 |
| 2028 | 11,040 | 2,295 | 1,715 | 330 |
| 2029 | 7,690 | 1,865 | 1,965 | 300 |
| 2030 | 6,325 | 895 | 1,830 | 270 |
Confirmed · As of 4 Aug 2026
7.8 GW
Duke Energy
electric service agreements signed with data centre customers, within a 15.4 GW late-stage pipeline that Duke expects to convert by the first half of 2027 (company expectation).
Confirmed · As of 29 Oct 2026
1,900 MW
Xcel Energy
of clean energy resources in the proposed Clean Energy Accelerator Charge filed with Minnesota regulators alongside the Google Pine Island data centre service agreement. Decision expected in early 2027.
Source: Xcel Energy (SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.01): Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Report (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed · As of 2 Nov 2026
4.5%
Entergy
weather-adjusted retail sales growth in Q3 2026, with industrial sales up 4.9% on higher sales to data centre and primary metals customers.
Source: Entergy via PR Newswire: Entergy reports third quarter 2026 financial results (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed · As of 30 Oct 2026
8.6%
Dominion Energy
weather-normal commercial electric sales growth over the 12 months to Q3 2026, alongside 54.9 GW of data centre capacity in contracting stages.
Our commentary (not advice): AEP raised its plan, Xcel rolled forward to a new base plan for 2027 to 2031, and Dominion and Entergy reaffirmed their outlooks with results in the last week. The plans are mostly paid for with new debt and shares as well as cash from operations (Xcel: US$35.8bn from operations, US$26.2bn of new debt and US$8bn of equity), so interest costs and rate cases decide how fast the money is spent. Dates to watch: Duke Energy and Southern Company report Q3 2026 results on 5 November 2026. Related: PJM capacity costs, utility data centre pipelines, North America.
Constellation Energy
Talen Energy Nuclear and gas power producers selling to data centres: Constellation, Vistra and Talen Q3 2026 results Filed
Not investment advice. Results and guidance are from each company's own release (Talen 3 November, Vistra 6 November, Constellation 9 November 2026). Guidance is the company's forecast, not ours. The three lead with different non-GAAP measures (adjusted operating earnings, Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA), so we compare only each company's growth on its own measure, not the amounts.
Independent power producers own the nuclear and gas plants that AI data centre builders are signing long contracts with, because new grid connections and new turbines take years. Their quarterly results show whether those contracts and higher power prices are turning into earnings, and how much of their future output is already sold. For cooling and power suppliers, the deals below show where large new loads will sit and when.
Confirmed
88.2%
growth in Constellation's adjusted operating earnings, Q3 2026 on Q3 2025 (US$1,792m, our calculation)
Confirmed
US$2,378m
Vistra Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2026, up more than 50% on a year earlier
Source: Vistra: Vistra Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (6 November 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
890 MW
of nuclear uprates across 11 Constellation units backed by a 20-year Google PPA, first uprate expected in 2028
Confirmed
1,920 MW
Talen's Susquehanna nuclear PPA with Amazon at full contract quantity, through 2042
Tap or hover a bar for the measure, both quarters' amounts and GAAP net income. Talen's GAAP net income fell (US$138m against US$207m) because of unrealised losses on hedges and higher interest from acquisition debt, while its adjusted EBITDA rose. Growth rates are our calculation from the companies' figures.
Sources: Constellation Energy: Constellation Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (9 November 2026) (opens in a new tab) (GAAP net income checked against Constellation Energy (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (filed 9 November 2026) (opens in a new tab)); Vistra: Vistra Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (6 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); Talen Energy: Talen Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, Reaffirms 2026 Guidance, and Introduces 2027 Guidance (3 November 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 9 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Lead measure | Q3 2025 (US$m) | Q3 2026 (US$m) | Growth (%, our calculation) | GAAP net income Q3 2026 (US$m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy | Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings | 952 | 1792 | 88.2 | 1835 |
| Vistra | Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA | 1581 | 2378 | 50.4 | 1140 |
| Talen Energy | Adjusted EBITDA | 363 | 669 | 84.3 | 138 |
Each bar runs from the low to the high end of the company's own range. Both companies set 2027 guidance above 2026. Constellation guides on earnings per share instead: US$12.50 to US$12.80 adjusted operating earnings per share for 2026 (midpoint raised), so it is not on this chart.
Sources: Vistra: Vistra Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (6 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); Talen Energy: Talen Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, Reaffirms 2026 Guidance, and Introduces 2027 Guidance (3 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); Constellation Energy: Constellation Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (9 November 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 9 Nov 2026.
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| Company and year | Measure | Low (US$bn) | High (US$bn) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vistra 2026 | Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA | 7.1 | 7.5 | raised midpoint, narrowed |
| Vistra 2027 | Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA | 7.7 | 8.5 | initiated |
| Talen Energy 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA | 2.05 | 2.2 | reaffirmed, narrowed |
| Talen Energy 2027 | Adjusted EBITDA | 2.5 | 2.85 | introduced |
Share of expected generation volumes already hedged (sold forward) as each company states it. Vistra as of 30 October 2026; Talen as of 30 September 2026, including the nuclear production tax credit, and its first figure covers October to December 2026 only. A high share locks in today's prices; an unhedged share is what can still be sold to new buyers such as data centres, or at future market prices. Use the legend to show one company.
Sources: Vistra: Vistra Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (6 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); Talen Energy: Talen Energy Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, Reaffirms 2026 Guidance, and Introduces 2027 Guidance (3 November 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 9 Nov 2026.
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| Company | 2026 hedged (%) | 2027 hedged (%) | 2028 hedged (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vistra | 100 | 98 | 78 |
| Talen Energy | 80 | 70 | 35 |
Megawatts are as each company states them, but the agreements differ: some sell output from existing plants, some pay for new capacity (uprates or an expansion), one is a solar plant now operating. Tap or hover a bar for the terms. Not added together.
Sources: Constellation Energy: Constellation Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (9 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); Vistra: Vistra Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (6 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); Talen Energy: Talen Energy Expands Nuclear Energy Relationship with Amazon (11 June 2025) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 9 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Seller | Buyer | MW | Terms | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy | Amazon | 690 | 20-year PPA and retail supply, Calvert Cliffs (PJM), with a 190 MW expansion expected 2030 to 2032 | 2026-09 |
| Constellation Energy | 890 | 20-year PPA enabling about 890 MW of nuclear uprates across 11 units (first uprate expected 2028), plus a separate 15-year 2,700 MW financial load-following agreement | 2026-10 | |
| Constellation Energy | Customer not named in the release | 270 | 20-year unit-contingent energy, capacity and attributes from the existing nuclear fleet, from 2028 | 2026-Q3 |
| Vistra | Microsoft | 405 | Pulaski Solar Facility (Illinois) began operating under a PPA | 2026-Q3 |
| Vistra | New Era Energy and Digital | 207 | 20-year PPA at the Odessa combined cycle gas plant (Texas) | 2026-Q3 |
| Talen Energy | Amazon | 1920 | PPA from Susquehanna nuclear through 2042 at full contract quantity, ramping to full volume no later than 2032 | 2025-06 |
Key takeaways
- All three grew their lead profit measure by between 50.4% and 88.2% on a year earlier, helped by acquisitions (Calpine at Constellation, Lotus at Vistra, Cornerstone at Talen) and higher power and capacity prices, as the companies explain.
- Vistra and Talen both guide 2027 adjusted EBITDA above 2026. Constellation raised the midpoint of its 2026 earnings per share range for the second time this year.
- Vistra has sold forward about 78% of its expected 2028 output and Talen about 35%, so Talen has more 2028 output still open to new contracts or market prices.
- New capacity from existing nuclear sites is being paid for by named tech buyers: Google (about 890 MW of uprates) and Amazon (690 MW at Calvert Cliffs, including a 190 MW expansion due 2030 to 2032).
Our commentary (not advice): for data centre developers, these releases show that firm power from existing plants is being contracted years ahead, and that the extra megawatts come mostly from uprates, acquisitions and gas plants rather than new reactors. For suppliers of cooling, switchgear and backup power, the sites named here (Calvert Cliffs and the Susquehanna campus in PJM, Odessa in Texas) are where large co-located or nearby loads are planned. Watch Constellation's 10-Q (due 9 November), the PJM capacity auction results and state large-load rules after the midterms. Related: US utility capex, midterms risk by state, US data centre power, power, water and noise explained.
On-site power for data centres: Bloom Energy, Caterpillar and Cummins Q3 2026 results Filed
Not investment advice. Figures are from each company's own results release and SEC filing (Bloom Energy 22 October, Caterpillar 29 October, Cummins 5 November 2026). None of the three reports data centre revenue on its own, so we show the segment or product line each company says data centres are driving. The margins are different measures (non-GAAP operating margin, segment profit margin, segment EBITDA margin), so compare each company with its own year-earlier figure, not with the others. Growth rates are our calculation. Guidance is the companies' own.
With grid connections taking years in many markets, more AI data centres are buying their own power on site: fuel cells, gas turbines and large gas or diesel engines, as prime power, bridge power until the grid arrives, or backup. These three makers' results show how fast that demand is turning into sales, and where the bottlenecks are (factory and supplier capacity, with Cummins' largest generator sets on order into late 2028). For cooling and electrical engineers, on-site generation also changes the site: fuel supply, exhaust and noise, heat that can be reused, and space for engines or fuel cells next to the halls.
Confirmed
138.1%
growth in Bloom Energy's revenue, Q3 2026 on Q3 2025 (US$1,235.8m)
Confirmed
US$3,421m
Caterpillar Power Generation sales in Q3 2026, up 30%, mainly turbines and large engines for data centres
Confirmed
75%
rise in Caterpillar's Power Generation sales to end users in Q3 2026 on a year earlier (dealer statistics)
Confirmed
25.4%
Cummins Power Systems EBITDA margin in Q3 2026, up from 22.9%, its most profitable segment
Source: Cummins: Cummins Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (5 November 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Tap or hover a bar for the line measured, both quarters' amounts and what the company says drove it. Bloom's figure is total company revenue; Caterpillar's and Cummins' are one part of much larger groups. Growth rates are our calculation.
Sources: Bloom Energy: Bloom Energy Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Guidance (22 October 2026) (opens in a new tab); Caterpillar (SEC filing, exhibit 99.1): Caterpillar third-quarter 2026 results release (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab); Cummins: Cummins Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (5 November 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 9 Nov 2026.
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| Company | Line measured | Q3 2025 (US$m) | Q3 2026 (US$m) | Growth (%, our calculation) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloom Energy | Total revenue | 519 | 1235.8 | 138.1 |
| Caterpillar | Power Generation sales (Power & Energy segment) | 2634 | 3421 | 29.9 |
| Cummins | Power Systems segment sales | 1996 | 2289 | 14.7 |
Use the legend to show one quarter. All three widened their margins as volumes and prices rose. The measures differ, so the bars are for each company's own change, not a ranking.
Sources: Bloom Energy: Bloom Energy Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Guidance (22 October 2026) (opens in a new tab); Caterpillar (SEC filing, exhibit 99.1): Caterpillar third-quarter 2026 results release (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab); Cummins: Cummins Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (5 November 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 9 Nov 2026.
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| Company | Measure | Q3 2025 (%) | Q3 2026 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bloom Energy | Non-GAAP operating margin | 8.9 | 23.1 |
| Caterpillar | Power & Energy segment profit margin | 21.9 | 24.4 |
| Cummins | Power Systems segment EBITDA margin | 22.9 | 25.4 |
Sales of the power generation product line in two Cummins segments, as published in the release's segment sales tables. Distribution resells and installs products that Power Systems makes, so the two lines overlap and must not be added together. Power Systems' power generation line grew 21.6% on Q3 2025 (our calculation). On the call, Cummins said a supplier problem held back Q3 shipments in Power Systems and Distribution, which it expects mostly to recover in Q4.
Source: Cummins: Cummins Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (5 November 2026) (opens in a new tab) (segment sales data tables). Accessed 9 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Quarter | Power Systems: power generation (US$m) | Distribution: power generation (US$m) |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 1001 | 1090 |
| Q2 2025 | 1205 | 1200 |
| Q3 2025 | 1280 | 1247 |
| Q4 2025 | 1245 | 1395 |
| Q1 2026 | 1283 | 1275 |
| Q2 2026 | 1536 | 1378 |
| Q3 2026 | 1557 | 1328 |
Change in Caterpillar's Power Generation sales to end users against the same quarter a year earlier, reported in dollars from dealer reports and direct sales. This is not the same measure as Caterpillar's own sales to dealers.
Source: Caterpillar (SEC filing, exhibit 99.2): Caterpillar quarterly retail sales statistics, third quarter 2026 (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 9 Nov 2026.
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| Quarter | Change on a year earlier (%) |
|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 33 |
| Q4 2025 | 44 |
| Q1 2026 | 48 |
| Q2 2026 | 72 |
| Q3 2026 | 75 |
What the companies expect (their forecasts, not ours)
- Bloom Energy: 2026 revenue of US$4.4bn to US$4.6bn (raised for the third time this year, about 122% growth at the midpoint) and non-GAAP operating income of US$960m to US$1,030m. Source: Bloom Energy: Bloom Energy Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Guidance (22 October 2026) (opens in a new tab).
- Cummins: company-wide 2026 revenue growth of about 10% (cut from 10% to 13% because of weaker North American pickup truck demand) and EBITDA of about 18.2% of sales; on the call, Power Systems revenue growth of 15% to 18% in 2026. Source: Cummins: Cummins Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (5 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); The Motley Fool (transcript): Cummins (CMI) Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (5 November 2026) (opens in a new tab).
- Caterpillar: a record order backlog in the release; on the call, full-year 2026 sales growth in the mid to high teens and a plan to raise large reciprocating engine output to nearly three times the 2024 level by 2030. Source: Caterpillar (SEC filing, exhibit 99.1): Caterpillar third-quarter 2026 results release (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab); The Motley Fool (transcript): Caterpillar (CAT) Q3 2026 earnings call transcript (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab).
Key takeaways
- Bloom Energy's revenue more than doubled (US$519m to US$1,235.8m) and its adjusted EBITDA rose from US$59m to US$299.5m, but operating cash flow was negative (US$27.1m used) as inventories and contract assets grew and capex reached US$153.5m.
- Caterpillar's Power Generation sales grew 29.9% and its sales to end users 75%, the fastest of its reported end markets, with turbines and large engines for data centres named as the cause.
- Cummins' Power Systems grew more slowly (14.7%), with shipments held back by a supplier problem, but earned its widest margin (25.4%). On the call it said orders for its largest generator sets now run into the second half of 2028; weaker pickup truck demand, not power generation, led it to trim group guidance.
- All three are adding factory capacity, so delivery slots, not demand, are the near-term limit for on-site power buyers.
Our commentary (not advice): for developers short of grid power, these results confirm that on-site generation is now bought at scale, but lead times are set by the makers' factories. For engineers, an on-site plant brings fuel logistics, air permits, exhaust heat and noise to the site, and fuel cells and engines reject heat differently from the grid-fed electrical plant they replace. Related: energy supply pathways, power producers, cooling and power supplier results, power, water and noise explained, generator set suppliers.
Bitcoin miners' AI pivot: IREN, TeraWulf and Cipher Digital results to September 2026 Filed
Not investment advice. Figures are from each company's own results release (Cipher Digital 2 November, IREN 5 November, TeraWulf 6 November 2026), for the quarter to 30 September 2026. IREN's quarter is its fiscal Q1 FY27 and it compares with the previous quarter (to 30 June 2026); TeraWulf and Cipher Digital compare with Q3 2025. Shares of revenue, revenue against interest, debt totals and cash sums are our calculation from the companies' tables. Guidance and targets are the companies' own.
Former bitcoin miners own something AI developers are short of: land with large grid connections already built or agreed. Three of them now earn most of their growth from renting that power to AI labs and hyperscalers, either as leased data halls (TeraWulf, Cipher Digital) or as GPU cloud services in their own buildings (IREN). The results show how fast the switch is happening, and how much debt is being taken on to build liquid-cooled halls before the rent arrives. For engineers, these are retrofits and new builds on mining sites: air-cooled halls converted for GPUs, and new liquid-cooled buildings (IREN names NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 systems at its Horizon 1 hall for Microsoft).
Confirmed
182%
rise in IREN's AI Cloud revenue on the previous quarter, to US$200m
Source: IREN: IREN Reports Q1 FY27 Results (5 November 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
82.6%
share of TeraWulf's Q3 2026 revenue from HPC leases, up from 14.2% a year earlier (our calculation)
Source: TeraWulf: TeraWulf Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (6 November 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
US$20.3bn
IREN revenue backlog at 30 September 2026, about two-thirds with investment-grade counterparties
Source: IREN: IREN Reports Q1 FY27 Results (5 November 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
US$9.1bn
contracted revenue at Cipher Digital's Barber Lake site after the lease was extended to 20 years
Tap or hover a bar for each company's own labels. IREN's AI figure combines AI Cloud services (GPU rental) and AI Cloud leases; TeraWulf's and Cipher Digital's are data hall leases. Use the legend to show one type.
Sources: IREN: IREN Reports Q1 FY27 Results (5 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); TeraWulf: TeraWulf Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (6 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); Cipher Digital: Cipher Digital Provides Third Quarter 2026 Business Update (2 November 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 10 Nov 2026.
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| Company | AI and HPC revenue (US$m) | Bitcoin mining revenue (US$m) | Total revenue (US$m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| IREN | 200 | 28 | 228 |
| TeraWulf | 63 | 13.2 | 76.2 |
| Cipher Digital | 5.9 | 20.8 | 26.7 |
Interest is charged on debt raised to build halls and buy GPUs before the rent or cloud revenue starts, so a young AI business can earn less than its interest bill. All three also earned interest income on cash held (tap a bar). Not a measure of profit.
Sources: IREN: IREN Reports Q1 FY27 Results (5 November 2026) (opens in a new tab) (finance expense); TeraWulf: TeraWulf Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (6 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); Cipher Digital: Cipher Digital Provides Third Quarter 2026 Business Update (2 November 2026) (opens in a new tab) (interest expense). Accessed 10 Nov 2026.
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| Company | AI and HPC revenue (US$m) | Interest or finance expense (US$m) | Interest income (US$m) | Adjusted EBITDA (US$m, company measure) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IREN | 200 | 73 | 51 | 66 |
| TeraWulf | 63 | 53.6 | 28.6 | -12.8 |
| Cipher Digital | 5.9 | 59 | 32.7 | -10 |
Debt is our total of the borrowing lines on each balance sheet (tap a bar for what is included); warrant liabilities are left out. Cash includes restricted cash, much of which is held for specific projects or lenders. The companies define debt differently, so compare each with its own cash rather than ranking them.
Sources: balance sheets in IREN: IREN Reports Q1 FY27 Results (5 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); TeraWulf: TeraWulf Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (6 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); Cipher Digital: Cipher Digital Provides Third Quarter 2026 Business Update (2 November 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 10 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Debt (US$m, our total) | What is included | Cash incl. restricted (US$m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| IREN | 10208 | Debt and finance leases, current and non-current (the company's total debt line) | 5778 |
| TeraWulf | 5233 | Long-term debt and its current portion, convertible notes (short and long term) and finance leases; warrant liabilities excluded | 2355 |
| Cipher Digital | 5582 | Short-term and long-term borrowings and finance leases; warrant liability excluded | 2853 |
What the companies expect (their targets, not ours)
- IREN: more than US$4bn of annualised run-rate revenue (ARR, an operating metric, not GAAP revenue) targeted to be operating by 31 January 2027, possibly extending to the end of February 2027, moved from year-end 2026 after a customer-requested design change and supplier timing; US$15bn of planned FY27 capex still to spend from 30 September 2026, of which US$9bn is covered by cash, committed GPU financing and prepayments; 0.8 GW of data centre capacity targeted by the end of 2027. Source: IREN: IREN Reports Q1 FY27 Results (5 November 2026) (opens in a new tab).
- TeraWulf: CB-4 at Lake Mariner on track for phased delivery and rent from Q4 2026 and CB-5 from early 2027, at its guided US$8m to US$10m per critical IT MW; phased ready-for-service dates at the Justified campus (about 401 MW leased to Anthropic for 20 years, about US$19bn of contracted revenue) from late 2027 to Q2 2028; target of contracting 250 MW to 500 MW of new critical IT capacity a year. Source: TeraWulf: TeraWulf Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (6 November 2026) (opens in a new tab).
- Cipher Digital: data halls at Black Pearl and Barber Lake coming online in phases through year-end; Barber Lake lease extended to 20 years with about US$9.1bn of contracted revenue; a development pipeline of about 5.9 GW, including 270 MW available in 2027, and gas laterals for up to 2.5 GW of possible on-site generation. Source: Cipher Digital: Cipher Digital Provides Third Quarter 2026 Business Update (2 November 2026) (opens in a new tab).
Key takeaways
- IREN is furthest along: AI Cloud was 87.7% of revenue and its adjusted EBITDA rose from US$19m to US$66m in one quarter, but it paid about US$4.8bn for buildings and computer hardware in the quarter (our sum of two cash flow lines) and still reported a net loss of US$263m.
- TeraWulf's HPC leases (102 MW operating, 336 MW under construction at Lake Mariner) now bring in more than its interest bill, though adjusted EBITDA was still negative (minus US$12.8m). Its reported net income of about US$710m came mostly from a non-cash change in the value of warrants.
- Cipher Digital is earliest: first rent of US$5.9m against US$59m of interest, with most of its contracted revenue still to start as halls come online.
- All three are counting on long leases with AI labs and hyperscalers (Anthropic, Microsoft and a leading AI lab are named) to repay construction debt, so delivery dates matter: IREN has already moved its ARR target from year-end to January 2027.
Our commentary (not advice): for cooling, electrical and construction suppliers, these companies are buying now: retrofits of air-cooled mining halls, new liquid-cooled buildings and, at Cipher Digital, gas pipelines for on-site generation. Their schedules are tied to lease start dates, so late equipment delays rent that pays interest. CoreWeave's Q3 results of 10 November answer the same question at a larger scale. Related: CoreWeave Q3 against guidance, AI debt, on-site power, direct liquid cooling, power, water and noise explained.
Who builds data centres? Comfort Systems USA, EMCOR and Quanta Services Q3 2026 results Filed
Not investment advice. Figures are from each company's own results release or quarterly report for the quarter to 30 September 2026 (Comfort Systems USA 22 October, EMCOR and Quanta Services 29 October 2026). Revenue and operating income are GAAP figures as filed. Growth rates, margins and the EMCOR data centre share are our calculation. Each company measures its order book in its own way, so order books are shown company by company and never ranked. Guidance is the companies' own.
Data centres are built by contractors as much as by their owners. Mechanical contractors install the chillers, cooling towers, pumps, piping and, increasingly, liquid cooling loops; electrical contractors fit the switchgear, busways and generators; grid contractors build the substations and lines that connect the site. These three listed US contractors show how much data centre work is queued up, and how fast it is turning into revenue. For buyers and suppliers, their order books are an early sign of when equipment has to arrive on site.
Confirmed
60.8%
of Comfort Systems USA's Q3 2026 revenue came from technology customers, mainly data centres (45.8% a year earlier)
Confirmed
US$8.74bn
EMCOR data centre remaining performance obligations at 30 September 2026, more than double a year earlier
Confirmed
47%
share of EMCOR's total remaining performance obligations that is data centre work (our calculation)
Sources: Facilities Dive: Emcor grows US building services revenue 4.7% (4 November 2026, on the 29 October results call) (opens in a new tab); EMCOR Group: EMCOR Group, Inc. Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026, PDF) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
57.4%
rise in Quanta Services' Q3 2026 revenue on a year earlier, to US$12.0bn (our calculation)
GAAP revenue for the quarter to 30 September, as filed. Tap or hover a bar for what each company does and its growth. Comfort Systems USA and Quanta Services both include acquisitions made during the year.
Sources: Comfort Systems USA (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (opens in a new tab); EMCOR Group: EMCOR Group, Inc. Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026, PDF) (opens in a new tab); Quanta Services: Quanta Services Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 10 Nov 2026.
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| Company | Q3 2025 revenue (US$m) | Q3 2026 revenue (US$m) | Change (%, our calculation) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comfort Systems USA | 2451 | 3766.3 | 53.7 |
| EMCOR Group | 4301.5 | 5541.5 | 28.8 |
| Quanta Services | 7631.4 | 12014.9 | 57.4 |
Our calculation from GAAP operating income and revenue; it matches the margins the companies print. EMCOR's Q3 2026 figure includes a US$34m non-cash impairment (10.5% without it, EMCOR's non-GAAP measure). A higher margin does not mean a better business: grid, mechanical and electrical work carry different costs.
Sources: Comfort Systems USA (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (opens in a new tab); EMCOR Group: EMCOR Group, Inc. Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026, PDF) (opens in a new tab); Quanta Services: Quanta Services Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 10 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Operating income Q3 2025 (US$m) | Operating income Q3 2026 (US$m) | Margin Q3 2025 (%) | Margin Q3 2026 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comfort Systems USA | 378.9 | 624.6 | 15.5 | 16.6 |
| EMCOR Group | 405.7 | 545.8 | 9.4 | 9.8 |
| Quanta Services | 517.2 | 1026.5 | 6.8 | 8.5 |
Comfort Systems USA (FIX) · Backlog
US$17.81bn
At 30 September 2026, against US$9.38bn a year earlier (up 90%, our calculation). Mechanical US$12.2bn, electrical US$5.6bn. Up 26.7% from US$14.06bn at 30 June 2026.
What it measures: Contracted or committed installation and replacement project work not yet performed; service work is not included.
EMCOR Group (EME) · Remaining performance obligations
US$18.57bn
At 30 September 2026, against US$12.61bn a year earlier (up 47.2%, as stated). Data centre (network and communications) RPOs US$8.74bn, more than double a year earlier, as EMCOR said on its results call.
What it measures: Contracted revenue still to be recognised on awarded construction and service contracts.
Source: EMCOR Group: EMCOR Group, Inc. Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026, PDF) (opens in a new tab); Facilities Dive: Emcor grows US building services revenue 4.7% (4 November 2026, on the 29 October results call) (opens in a new tab)
Quanta Services (PWR) · Total backlog (non-GAAP)
US$63.73bn
At 30 September 2026, against US$39.17bn a year earlier (up 62.7%, our calculation). US$38.4bn expected within 12 months. Remaining performance obligations alone US$41.8bn. Electric segment backlog US$51.9bn.
What it measures: Remaining performance obligations plus estimated orders under master service agreements and short-term contracts.
Technology, mostly data centres, made up 60.8% of revenue, against 45.8% a year earlier, while office building revenue fell. "Other" is our sum of office buildings, retail and entertainment, multi-family and residential, and other.
Source: revenue by customer type in Comfort Systems USA (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (opens in a new tab). Accessed 10 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Customer type | Q3 2025 (US$m) | Q3 2026 (US$m) |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 1122.5 | 2290 |
| Manufacturing | 543.1 | 631.6 |
| Healthcare | 207 | 236.4 |
| Education | 171.7 | 178.5 |
| Government | 122.3 | 139.3 |
| Other (office, retail, residential and other, our sum) | 284.4 | 290.5 |
What the companies expect (their forecasts, not ours)
- EMCOR Group: raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to US$20.6bn to US$21.0bn (from US$20.0bn to US$20.5bn) and expects a non-GAAP operating margin of about 10% (29 October 2026). Source: EMCOR Group: EMCOR Group, Inc. Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026, PDF) (opens in a new tab).
- Quanta Services: now expects full-year 2026 revenue of US$41.3bn to US$41.6bn and adjusted EBITDA of US$4.40bn to US$4.49bn (29 October 2026). Source: Quanta Services: Quanta Services Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab).
- Comfort Systems USA: gave no numeric guidance; it said it is well positioned to grow organically through year end and in 2027 and to keep high levels of profitability (22 October 2026). Source: Comfort Systems USA: Comfort Systems USA Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (22 October 2026) (opens in a new tab).
Key takeaways
- Data centre work is now the largest single driver for all three: technology was 60.8% of Comfort Systems USA's revenue, and about 47% of EMCOR's remaining performance obligations are data centre work.
- Order books grew faster than revenue at all three, so the work queued for 2027 is larger than the work done in 2026. Comfort Systems USA's backlog roughly doubled in a year (US$9.38bn to US$17.81bn).
- Margins rose as revenue grew, which suggests contractors with skilled labour can still choose their projects. Comfort Systems USA said on its results call that labour, not demand, is what limits its growth (Investing.com: Earnings call transcript: Comfort Systems USA Q3 2026 (22 October 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
- Comfort Systems USA's mechanical backlog (US$12.2bn) covers the cooling plant: chillers, cooling towers, air handling and piping. Late equipment holds up this work, and with it the date a hall can take IT load.
Our commentary (not advice): for cooling and power equipment suppliers, these contractors are often the buyer or the installer, so their order books show when equipment has to be delivered. For developers and consultants, a full order book at the few contractors able to build large liquid-cooled halls is a schedule risk, which is one reason modular and factory-built plant is growing. Related: cooling and power supplier results, on-site power, utility capex, data centre build cost per MW, modular infrastructure suppliers, data centre operators.
Johnson Controls Carrier vs Johnson Controls: data centre cooling orders, backlog and sales, Q3 2026 Filed
Not investment advice. Both companies' quarters run from July to September 2026: Carrier's third quarter (reported 29 October 2026) and Johnson Controls' fiscal fourth quarter (reported 27 October 2026). Sales are as reported in US$. Order growth is each company's own organic figure, rounded as stated (Carrier says "about"). Backlog is defined differently by each company, so the two are never added up or ranked. Data centre sales and year-to-date data centre orders are from Carrier's results call. Sales growth rates are our calculation. Guidance is the companies' own, not ours. We do not rate the shares.
Most large data centres reject their heat through chillers, dry coolers or cooling towers, and liquid-cooled AI halls add coolant distribution units (CDUs) between the plant and the racks. Carrier and Johnson Controls are two large listed makers of that equipment, and both now report data centres as the main driver of their orders. Their order books are an early signal for engineers and procurement teams of how long chiller and CDU lead times may run, and for investors of how much of the AI build-out is reaching the cooling plant.
Confirmed
~300%
rise in Carrier's data centre orders in Q3 2026 on a year earlier, as Carrier states it
Source: Carrier Global: Carrier Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
>US$8.5bn
Carrier record backlog at 30 September 2026, up 60%; excludes minimum volumes under long-term agreements
Source: Carrier Global: Carrier Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
US$23.0bn
Johnson Controls record backlog at 30 September 2026, up 43% organically
Confirmed
58%
organic rise in Johnson Controls' Americas orders, 'supported by sustained demand for data centers'
Blue bars are Carrier, green bars Johnson Controls (JCI), grouped by company, not ranked. Each bar is the company's own organic growth figure; Carrier rounds its figures ('about'). The bars measure different scopes (data centre orders, systems orders, regions), so read each against its own label. Tap or hover a bar for its source.
Sources: Carrier Global: Carrier Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab); Johnson Controls (SEC filing, Exhibit 99.1): Johnson Controls Reports Q4 and FY26 Results; Initiates FY27 Guidance (27 October 2026) (opens in a new tab); Investing.com: Johnson Controls Q4 2026 slides: record backlog fuels growth outlook (27 October 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Order measure | Growth on a year earlier (%) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Carrier: total orders | about 35 | Carrier Global |
| Carrier: commercial HVAC orders | about 60 | Carrier Global |
| Carrier: data centre orders | about 300 | Carrier Global |
| Johnson Controls: total orders | 44 | Johnson Controls (SEC filing, Exhibit 99.1) |
| Johnson Controls: systems orders | 63 | Investing.com |
| Johnson Controls: Americas orders | 58 | Johnson Controls (SEC filing, Exhibit 99.1) |
| Johnson Controls: Americas systems orders | 81 | Investing.com |
| Johnson Controls: EMEA orders | 12 | Johnson Controls (SEC filing, Exhibit 99.1) |
| Johnson Controls: APAC orders | 11 | Johnson Controls (SEC filing, Exhibit 99.1) |
Carrier's total sales rose 12.3% and its Climate Solutions Americas segment 23.7%; Johnson Controls' total sales rose 10.4% and its Americas segment 14% (our calculation). Both companies sold businesses during the year, so organic growth (Carrier 15%, Johnson Controls 12%) is higher than reported growth for both.
Sources: Carrier Global: Carrier Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab); Johnson Controls (SEC filing, Exhibit 99.1): Johnson Controls Reports Q4 and FY26 Results; Initiates FY27 Guidance (27 October 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company and scope | Jul to Sep 2025 (US$m) | Jul to Sep 2026 (US$m) | Change (%, our calculation) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrier Global total | 5,579 | 6,263 | 12.3 |
| Carrier Global Climate Solutions Americas segment | 2,711 | 3,354 | 23.7 |
| Johnson Controls total | 6,442 | 7,113 | 10.4 |
| Johnson Controls Americas segment | 4,325 | 4,930 | 14 |
The Americas hold 77% of Johnson Controls' US$23.0bn backlog (our calculation) and grew fastest. Carrier gives no regional split and only a floor ("more than US$8.5bn"), which leaves out long-term agreements such as the hyperscaler deal of more than US$3bn signed in October, so its backlog is shown in its own card below, not on this chart: the two companies define backlog differently.
Sources: Johnson Controls (SEC filing, Exhibit 99.1): Johnson Controls Reports Q4 and FY26 Results; Initiates FY27 Guidance (27 October 2026) (opens in a new tab); for Carrier's backlog and agreement, Carrier Global: Carrier Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab); Investing.com: Earnings call transcript: Carrier Q3 2026 (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Region | Backlog (US$bn) | Organic change on a year earlier (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Americas | 17.8 | 54 |
| EMEA | 3.1 | 18 |
| Asia Pacific | 2.1 | 12 |
| Total | 23.0 | 43 |
Carrier Global (CARR) · Q3 2026 (July to September)
US$6.26bn
Sales, against US$5.58bn a year earlier (up 12.3%, our calculation). Adjusted operating margin (non-GAAP): 17.4%, against 14.8%.
Backlog: Record backlog of more than US$8.5bn, up 60% on a year earlier; minimum volumes under long-term agreements are additive, not included.
Source: Carrier Global: Carrier Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Johnson Controls Johnson Controls (JCI) · fiscal Q4 2026 (July to September)
US$7.11bn
Sales, against US$6.44bn a year earlier (up 10.4%, our calculation). Americas adjusted segment EBITA margin (non-GAAP): 22%, against 19.9%.
Backlog: Backlog of US$23.0bn, up 43% organically; covers Solutions and Services and was restated to include equipment-only sales for longer projects.
What the companies expect (their forecasts, not ours)
- Carrier Global: full-year 2026 sales of US$23.8bn to US$24.0bn (previously about US$23bn), organic growth of about 10%, adjusted operating profit of about US$3.5bn, adjusted EPS of US$2.85 to US$2.90 and free cash flow of about US$2bn, as of 29 October 2026. On the call it kept its target of US$2bn of data centre sales in 2026. Source: Carrier Global: Carrier Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab); Investing.com: Earnings call transcript: Carrier Q3 2026 (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab).
- Johnson Controls: fiscal 2027 (October 2026 to September 2027) organic sales growth of 11% to 12% and adjusted EPS of US$6.15 to US$6.30; first quarter organic growth of 12% to 14%, as of 27 October 2026. Its slides put fiscal 2027 capital spending at about US$900m to add capacity and say it expects 70% to 80% of the backlog to turn into revenue within 12 months. Source: Johnson Controls (SEC filing, Exhibit 99.1): Johnson Controls Reports Q4 and FY26 Results; Initiates FY27 Guidance (27 October 2026) (opens in a new tab); Investing.com: Johnson Controls Q4 2026 slides: record backlog fuels growth outlook (27 October 2026) (opens in a new tab).
Key takeaways
- Data centres are now the main source of new orders at both: Carrier's data centre orders rose about 300% and passed US$3bn in the first nine months of 2026, and Johnson Controls' Americas systems orders rose 81%.
- Carrier sold more than US$550m of data centre equipment in the quarter and kept its US$2bn target for 2026; it also signed a hyperscaler agreement worth more than US$3bn with minimum volume commitments, outside its backlog (Investing.com: Earnings call transcript: Carrier Q3 2026 (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
- Johnson Controls' backlog is concentrated in the Americas (US$17.8bn of US$23.0bn). It said the main limit on turning backlog into sales is its customers' power and electrical infrastructure, not demand (ACHR News: Johnson Controls' HVAC Orders Jump 44% as Data Centers Boom (opens in a new tab)).
- Both are moving closer to the rack: Johnson Controls has added CDUs and bought a cold plate company (Facilities Dive: Johnson Controls doubles down on thermal management solutions (opens in a new tab)), and Carrier lists chillers, CDUs and building management systems in its hyperscaler talks (Investing.com: Earnings call transcript: Carrier Q3 2026 (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
- Reported profit can differ sharply from the adjusted figures: Carrier booked a US$3.1bn goodwill impairment on its European business, so it made a GAAP operating loss in the quarter despite higher adjusted profit.
Our commentary (not advice): for engineers and procurement teams, order books growing faster than sales at the big chiller makers may mean longer lead times for large air-cooled chillers and CDUs in 2027, so equipment choices and slots may need fixing earlier in a project. Carrier said its new 2 MW and 3 MW air-cooled chillers had early supply chain teething problems, which it expects to ease in 2027 (Investing.com: Earnings call transcript: Carrier Q3 2026 (29 October 2026) (opens in a new tab)). For consultants, long-term agreements with minimum volumes show hyperscalers reserving cooling capacity the way they reserve power and chips. These are two of many cooling suppliers; Trane Technologies, Vertiv and others are in the supplier results tracker. Related: data centre builders, chiller suppliers, direct liquid cooling, power, water and noise explained.
European electricity prices by country: wholesale power in data centre markets, 2019 to 2026 Official statistic
Not investment advice. These are monthly average day-ahead wholesale prices, the price generators receive on the spot market, as compiled by Ember from ENTSO-E, EMR and SEMOpx. A data centre pays more than this: network charges, taxes, levies and supplier margins come on top, and most large sites buy through fixed-price contracts or power purchase agreements (PPAs), so spot prices show the market level, not any operator's bill. Averages, changes and the cost per MW are our calculation. We make no price forecast.
Electricity is the largest running cost of a data centre, and it is bought country by country. This chart puts the wholesale price in the main European data centre markets on one scale: the FLAP-D hubs (Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, Dublin), the Nordics and the fast-growing southern and central markets. Tap a country in the legend to add or remove it, and drag the slider under the chart to zoom into any period since January 2019.
Italy
IrelandUnited Kingdom
Poland
Netherlands
Germany
BelgiumDenmarkNorway
France
SpainSwedenFinland
Key takeaways (our reading of Ember's monthly data)
- Dearer everywhere in 2026: all 13 markets averaged more from Jan to Oct 2026 than in the same months of 2025. The biggest rise was in Norway (up 135.3%).
- The Nordic gap holds: Finland (€58.2) and Sweden (€69.4) were the cheapest markets on average, against €114.1 in Germany and €123.7 in the UK.
- Oct 2026 jumped: the UK averaged €167 per MWh, its highest month since Dec 2022, and Germany €170.
Confirmed
€124
UK average wholesale price per MWh, Jan to Oct 2026, up 29.3% on the same months of 2025 (our calculation)
Confirmed
€154
Italy, the dearest of the 13 markets, Jan to Oct 2026 average per MWh
Confirmed
€58
Finland, the cheapest of the 13 markets, Jan to Oct 2026 average per MWh
Confirmed
€1.08m
Wholesale energy for 1 MW running all year (8,760 MWh) at the UK's 2026 average, before network charges and taxes (our calculation)
Source: Ember: European Wholesale Electricity Price Data (monthly, CC-BY-4.0, updated 4 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab) and our arithmetic
Six markets are shown at first. Tap any country in the legend to add it or take it away, and drag or pinch the slider to change the period (it opens at January 2024). The 2022 peak came during the European gas crisis. Oct 2026 is the latest full month, because Ember's file only covers the first days of November.
Source: Ember: European Wholesale Electricity Price Data (monthly, CC-BY-4.0, updated 4 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab), compiled from ENTSO-E, EMR (UK) and SEMOpx (Ireland), load-weighted monthly averages. Accessed 4 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Month | United Kingdom (€/MWh) | Ireland (€/MWh) | Germany (€/MWh) | Netherlands (€/MWh) | France (€/MWh) | Belgium (€/MWh) | Spain (€/MWh) | Italy (€/MWh) | Poland (€/MWh) | Denmark (€/MWh) | Sweden (€/MWh) | Norway (€/MWh) | Finland (€/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 167.20 | 191.45 | 169.53 | 171.94 | 165.92 | 174.30 | 166.57 | 230.74 | 169.36 | 160.54 | 75.72 | 124.78 | 38.08 |
| Sep 2026 | 156.23 | 183.68 | 145.40 | 152.18 | 143.26 | 156.40 | 143.23 | 207.28 | 149.87 | 141.48 | 75.39 | 119.93 | 57.28 |
| Aug 2026 | 149.45 | 172.36 | 126.14 | 127.53 | 125.66 | 131.67 | 119.03 | 180.09 | 134.38 | 127.57 | 57.26 | 114.43 | 40.94 |
| Jul 2026 | 125.37 | 155.29 | 106.79 | 106.85 | 96.61 | 110.15 | 104.79 | 156.77 | 112.99 | 102.69 | 45.88 | 92.22 | 15.35 |
| Jun 2026 | 115.23 | 135.69 | 111.13 | 107.02 | 66.25 | 112.36 | 69.58 | 132.27 | 114.52 | 108.63 | 68.37 | 67.12 | 45.07 |
| May 2026 | 120.90 | 144.98 | 95.56 | 94.85 | 52.16 | 91.73 | 54.05 | 120.05 | 101.81 | 100.24 | 69.50 | 84.67 | 53.07 |
| Apr 2026 | 95.47 | 132.27 | 80.53 | 84.39 | 39.47 | 78.71 | 42.60 | 120.13 | 82.89 | 82.55 | 49.07 | 85.51 | 49.55 |
| Mar 2026 | 106.55 | 129.92 | 99.44 | 98.98 | 64.07 | 92.75 | 41.68 | 143.44 | 104.76 | 97.49 | 51.59 | 85.95 | 27.71 |
| Feb 2026 | 92.43 | 109.60 | 96.69 | 96.08 | 46.95 | 85.03 | 16.43 | 114.23 | 115.68 | 102.89 | 102.14 | 103.18 | 137.20 |
| Jan 2026 | 107.83 | 126.37 | 109.73 | 107.14 | 101.29 | 107.98 | 71.34 | 132.58 | 142.95 | 107.07 | 99.13 | 101.08 | 117.35 |
| Dec 2025 | 86.19 | 108.31 | 93.67 | 87.67 | 68.67 | 85.34 | 77.93 | 115.48 | 116.52 | 82.30 | 45.81 | 58.86 | 36.14 |
| Nov 2025 | 88.28 | 120.72 | 102.99 | 93.78 | 59.21 | 86.26 | 58.71 | 117.03 | 124.05 | 93.17 | 58.84 | 64.73 | 47.90 |
| Oct 2025 | 78.28 | 101.42 | 84.49 | 82.29 | 57.36 | 74.99 | 75.63 | 111.42 | 104.95 | 79.62 | 49.96 | 40.30 | 48.98 |
| Sep 2025 | 76.92 | 91.78 | 84.28 | 83.75 | 57.24 | 74.95 | 79.69 | 109.10 | 100.62 | 83.93 | 42.10 | 38.07 | 37.87 |
| Aug 2025 | 82.52 | 99.28 | 77.80 | 74.52 | 54.25 | 68.89 | 68.25 | 121.54 | 89.54 | 74.10 | 42.34 | 41.68 | 55.57 |
| Jul 2025 | 91.63 | 99.94 | 87.55 | 87.53 | 57.96 | 83.06 | 69.94 | 123.69 | 102.43 | 81.66 | 30.23 | 38.41 | 24.18 |
| Jun 2025 | 79.04 | 93.83 | 64.14 | 67.70 | 40.90 | 65.36 | 72.81 | 123.04 | 81.52 | 58.17 | 19.83 | 38.95 | 18.58 |
| May 2025 | 82.11 | 112.12 | 66.74 | 64.21 | 19.44 | 61.08 | 16.99 | 114.36 | 94.04 | 64.12 | 36.68 | 41.06 | 17.97 |
| Apr 2025 | 91.73 | 110.42 | 77.40 | 74.83 | 42.05 | 73.36 | 26.65 | 117.09 | 85.96 | 75.38 | 33.00 | 34.35 | 47.82 |
| Mar 2025 | 106.14 | 129.07 | 94.06 | 91.69 | 76.84 | 91.17 | 53.10 | 127.39 | 99.26 | 83.65 | 40.86 | 34.51 | 47.50 |
| Feb 2025 | 127.54 | 140.35 | 129.35 | 125.81 | 122.63 | 128.73 | 108.26 | 142.33 | 133.81 | 114.82 | 61.45 | 60.75 | 47.34 |
| Jan 2025 | 141.29 | 163.65 | 114.19 | 116.82 | 102.44 | 112.17 | 96.69 | 138.68 | 114.23 | 98.95 | 50.30 | 47.87 | 52.82 |
| Dec 2024 | 109.25 | 138.26 | 105.65 | 107.94 | 98.12 | 105.10 | 111.25 | 135.04 | 109.36 | 92.03 | 44.56 | 41.64 | 38.79 |
| Nov 2024 | 117.07 | 146.87 | 111.61 | 113.47 | 100.55 | 108.95 | 104.48 | 130.93 | 120.78 | 95.79 | 53.04 | 36.53 | 45.35 |
| Oct 2024 | 100.32 | 124.14 | 83.98 | 87.80 | 62.25 | 78.13 | 68.49 | 116.72 | 103.16 | 76.68 | 19.72 | 28.26 | 40.69 |
| Sep 2024 | 91.52 | 113.12 | 78.55 | 77.62 | 51.61 | 66.41 | 72.54 | 117.08 | 94.99 | 70.97 | 15.53 | 21.17 | 56.02 |
| Aug 2024 | 70.75 | 102.42 | 81.76 | 77.10 | 54.56 | 65.53 | 91.10 | 128.51 | 100.12 | 72.78 | 12.95 | 19.05 | 12.53 |
| Jul 2024 | 82.56 | 108.29 | 68.40 | 65.04 | 46.57 | 54.59 | 72.43 | 112.38 | 109.01 | 62.33 | 21.19 | 27.20 | 16.84 |
| Jun 2024 | 84.27 | 108.10 | 72.88 | 68.06 | 37.78 | 60.92 | 56.26 | 103.18 | 105.53 | 64.90 | 28.91 | 32.01 | 36.13 |
| May 2024 | 84.72 | 107.58 | 67.53 | 65.70 | 27.06 | 54.45 | 30.32 | 94.94 | 85.63 | 58.51 | 23.14 | 29.74 | 35.07 |
| Apr 2024 | 62.45 | 87.99 | 61.96 | 58.42 | 28.23 | 48.04 | 13.77 | 86.76 | 80.88 | 59.63 | 48.47 | 49.96 | 48.91 |
| Mar 2024 | 72.07 | 86.38 | 63.18 | 63.38 | 53.54 | 61.13 | 20.28 | 88.85 | 75.36 | 61.15 | 52.75 | 56.17 | 59.41 |
| Feb 2024 | 69.52 | 84.84 | 61.23 | 63.91 | 58.39 | 61.53 | 39.90 | 87.60 | 75.97 | 57.05 | 44.54 | 52.68 | 51.59 |
| Jan 2024 | 83.96 | 99.68 | 76.23 | 78.43 | 76.66 | 78.63 | 74.11 | 99.14 | 93.48 | 76.16 | 68.66 | 69.57 | 106.16 |
| Dec 2023 | 80.51 | 91.22 | 69.08 | 73.04 | 68.33 | 69.26 | 72.12 | 115.45 | 80.08 | 69.95 | 69.32 | 74.71 | 76.19 |
| Nov 2023 | 108.76 | 122.74 | 90.90 | 94.46 | 89.02 | 91.53 | 63.57 | 121.74 | 98.43 | 85.63 | 68.36 | 76.64 | 69.77 |
| Oct 2023 | 94.51 | 125.04 | 87.10 | 90.19 | 84.20 | 86.34 | 89.84 | 134.20 | 95.38 | 58.66 | 26.11 | 30.12 | 37.70 |
| Sep 2023 | 96.07 | 111.90 | 100.81 | 98.70 | 88.71 | 94.35 | 103.36 | 115.69 | 109.83 | 85.03 | 22.10 | 17.35 | 32.75 |
| Aug 2023 | 95.75 | 108.95 | 94.35 | 91.42 | 90.96 | 92.05 | 96.09 | 111.93 | 107.06 | 86.18 | 30.77 | 30.16 | 66.42 |
| Jul 2023 | 81.69 | 141.99 | 78.12 | 71.69 | 77.62 | 75.29 | 90.46 | 112.08 | 115.73 | 64.74 | 32.72 | 36.47 | 32.93 |
| Jun 2023 | 98.14 | 116.90 | 93.90 | 92.04 | 91.28 | 93.17 | 93.05 | 105.39 | 118.30 | 92.22 | 52.30 | 52.19 | 43.43 |
| May 2023 | 92.60 | 105.66 | 82.03 | 77.88 | 77.48 | 80.11 | 74.17 | 105.65 | 105.67 | 70.84 | 37.38 | 51.42 | 26.52 |
| Apr 2023 | 116.08 | 126.30 | 102.14 | 98.71 | 106.47 | 105.62 | 73.82 | 134.90 | 122.03 | 91.43 | 60.96 | 79.45 | 60.54 |
| Mar 2023 | 129.99 | 147.19 | 101.23 | 104.44 | 111.82 | 109.48 | 89.58 | 136.31 | 120.43 | 95.27 | 69.32 | 82.51 | 74.13 |
| Feb 2023 | 153.37 | 156.59 | 127.81 | 134.91 | 148.78 | 143.51 | 133.49 | 161.03 | 136.85 | 111.37 | 71.69 | 80.78 | 80.04 |
| Jan 2023 | 149.67 | 163.69 | 117.22 | 126.13 | 132.33 | 130.87 | 69.73 | 174.44 | 132.59 | 107.56 | 80.98 | 97.32 | 78.87 |
| Dec 2022 | 287.79 | 279.75 | 250.71 | 258.49 | 270.49 | 268.88 | 96.75 | 294.82 | 173.55 | 248.97 | 235.20 | 217.45 | 245.60 |
| Nov 2022 | 159.80 | 137.04 | 173.20 | 179.48 | 192.16 | 180.70 | 115.57 | 224.79 | 170.95 | 141.90 | 119.37 | 88.73 | 195.62 |
| Oct 2022 | 136.05 | 133.04 | 155.30 | 155.51 | 178.89 | 157.51 | 127.22 | 211.16 | 134.12 | 137.08 | 69.04 | 89.01 | 113.21 |
| Sep 2022 | 309.95 | 292.98 | 352.81 | 340.89 | 393.39 | 345.73 | 140.92 | 429.25 | 175.50 | 336.73 | 189.94 | 236.96 | 215.46 |
| Aug 2022 | 438.03 | 383.32 | 463.59 | 447.25 | 493.08 | 448.12 | 154.99 | 543.55 | 268.88 | 454.43 | 189.00 | 245.94 | 261.53 |
| Jul 2022 | 286.35 | 267.21 | 317.03 | 306.86 | 400.95 | 321.55 | 142.68 | 441.77 | 220.08 | 259.54 | 74.92 | 129.21 | 183.92 |
| Jun 2022 | 187.08 | 180.39 | 218.17 | 210.70 | 248.73 | 219.29 | 169.43 | 271.67 | 185.27 | 214.16 | 114.26 | 105.17 | 140.33 |
| May 2022 | 148.13 | 141.41 | 177.04 | 181.40 | 197.46 | 176.67 | 187.16 | 230.04 | 140.64 | 168.51 | 95.76 | 107.34 | 132.35 |
| Apr 2022 | 211.27 | 222.54 | 168.78 | 195.31 | 232.92 | 186.72 | 191.52 | 245.79 | 124.27 | 159.66 | 83.77 | 127.80 | 79.42 |
| Mar 2022 | 297.45 | 292.69 | 252.07 | 261.03 | 295.17 | 265.51 | 283.19 | 307.97 | 141.33 | 232.73 | 108.74 | 131.92 | 86.63 |
| Feb 2022 | 193.98 | 172.98 | 129.86 | 168.29 | 185.65 | 162.64 | 200.31 | 211.76 | 116.81 | 108.20 | 65.08 | 84.50 | 80.85 |
| Jan 2022 | 219.28 | 198.70 | 167.81 | 189.24 | 211.85 | 191.56 | 201.80 | 224.49 | 143.99 | 115.64 | 88.36 | 101.60 | 106.83 |
| Dec 2021 | 288.48 | 253.74 | 225.08 | 237.80 | 274.51 | 245.43 | 238.97 | 281.01 | 179.38 | 189.95 | 156.77 | 136.54 | 193.27 |
| Nov 2021 | 219.34 | 201.38 | 176.28 | 186.30 | 217.27 | 202.17 | 193.72 | 225.99 | 117.80 | 139.96 | 80.76 | 84.05 | 86.05 |
| Oct 2021 | 208.46 | 213.26 | 142.22 | 163.81 | 172.58 | 165.37 | 199.67 | 217.66 | 103.23 | 112.94 | 61.38 | 72.34 | 64.85 |
| Sep 2021 | 220.54 | 195.23 | 128.98 | 136.39 | 135.30 | 136.15 | 156.40 | 158.74 | 102.24 | 124.75 | 89.23 | 87.02 | 89.30 |
| Aug 2021 | 125.34 | 131.04 | 82.18 | 86.66 | 77.40 | 79.55 | 106.08 | 112.57 | 82.40 | 83.49 | 67.32 | 64.54 | 68.14 |
| Jul 2021 | 108.97 | 143.33 | 81.50 | 82.58 | 78.31 | 77.37 | 92.37 | 102.70 | 82.34 | 80.46 | 58.43 | 49.32 | 78.79 |
| Jun 2021 | 91.04 | 93.56 | 73.87 | 76.51 | 73.55 | 74.49 | 83.31 | 84.84 | 76.23 | 73.73 | 44.60 | 42.75 | 56.18 |
| May 2021 | 86.04 | 98.35 | 53.49 | 56.12 | 55.25 | 55.61 | 67.18 | 69.95 | 65.65 | 54.62 | 42.91 | 43.80 | 45.90 |
| Apr 2021 | 76.36 | 83.93 | 54.73 | 53.87 | 63.15 | 57.04 | 65.06 | 69.05 | 59.36 | 47.99 | 33.67 | 38.68 | 36.83 |
| Mar 2021 | 64.84 | 70.34 | 46.68 | 48.89 | 50.23 | 46.63 | 45.48 | 60.41 | 59.63 | 45.73 | 35.90 | 36.02 | 38.32 |
| Feb 2021 | 62.09 | 56.99 | 48.98 | 49.23 | 49.03 | 48.57 | 28.54 | 56.56 | 58.89 | 50.05 | 51.65 | 48.21 | 57.10 |
| Jan 2021 | 89.44 | 78.48 | 53.31 | 53.62 | 59.47 | 57.44 | 60.10 | 60.70 | 54.79 | 50.44 | 48.12 | 46.03 | 51.25 |
| Dec 2020 | 60.69 | 58.53 | 43.75 | 48.28 | 48.42 | 47.40 | 41.97 | 54.07 | 56.65 | 36.40 | 29.73 | 18.12 | 39.27 |
| Nov 2020 | 49.12 | 44.63 | 38.22 | 41.05 | 40.14 | 39.93 | 41.96 | 48.75 | 53.55 | 28.26 | 22.40 | 4.85 | 27.64 |
| Oct 2020 | 47.08 | 47.38 | 34.05 | 37.11 | 37.88 | 39.38 | 36.55 | 43.52 | 52.19 | 26.16 | 22.58 | 12.39 | 31.08 |
| Sep 2020 | 48.14 | 44.07 | 43.65 | 42.60 | 47.19 | 44.23 | 41.95 | 48.77 | 53.74 | 38.84 | 33.19 | 9.24 | 37.78 |
| Aug 2020 | 40.30 | 36.52 | 34.40 | 34.07 | 36.76 | 35.55 | 36.21 | 40.27 | 52.29 | 36.91 | 31.72 | 4.61 | 40.57 |
| Jul 2020 | 32.54 | 30.25 | 30.37 | 29.35 | 33.42 | 29.87 | 34.62 | 37.99 | 48.98 | 25.17 | 11.40 | 1.85 | 20.27 |
| Jun 2020 | 29.49 | 25.59 | 26.00 | 26.26 | 25.85 | 25.59 | 30.63 | 28.06 | 48.39 | 27.55 | 21.19 | 2.05 | 28.25 |
| May 2020 | 25.08 | 23.78 | 17.75 | 17.67 | 14.87 | 15.41 | 21.33 | 21.79 | 38.55 | 17.18 | 12.37 | 7.73 | 19.46 |
| Apr 2020 | 27.60 | 28.16 | 17.51 | 18.97 | 13.41 | 14.68 | 17.61 | 24.79 | 33.30 | 15.62 | 9.08 | 4.69 | 19.81 |
| Mar 2020 | 35.06 | 33.48 | 22.47 | 24.75 | 23.83 | 24.02 | 27.74 | 31.97 | 36.94 | 18.91 | 13.31 | 8.35 | 20.35 |
| Feb 2020 | 36.44 | 33.20 | 21.69 | 29.55 | 26.25 | 28.36 | 35.86 | 39.26 | 40.87 | 18.07 | 17.68 | 12.83 | 24.44 |
| Jan 2020 | 42.01 | 42.66 | 34.61 | 37.07 | 37.97 | 37.85 | 41.08 | 47.44 | 44.14 | 25.88 | 24.12 | 24.23 | 27.14 |
| Dec 2019 | 46.13 | 45.52 | 31.93 | 37.40 | 36.47 | 36.36 | 33.81 | 43.33 | 44.55 | 34.55 | 35.98 | 37.19 | 38.40 |
| Nov 2019 | 51.81 | 51.82 | 40.96 | 42.71 | 45.95 | 44.41 | 42.19 | 48.17 | 50.39 | 42.11 | 41.79 | 41.89 | 45.71 |
| Oct 2019 | 41.86 | 40.64 | 37.22 | 37.96 | 38.62 | 37.62 | 47.15 | 52.83 | 53.12 | 39.53 | 38.24 | 36.64 | 46.36 |
| Sep 2019 | 40.61 | 43.86 | 35.36 | 36.58 | 35.55 | 33.58 | 42.13 | 51.16 | 55.99 | 36.15 | 34.95 | 31.12 | 48.76 |
| Aug 2019 | 41.67 | 46.41 | 36.65 | 37.41 | 33.36 | 33.69 | 44.95 | 49.59 | 61.60 | 38.49 | 37.25 | 35.32 | 48.74 |
| Jul 2019 | 45.73 | 49.30 | 39.49 | 39.62 | 37.70 | 37.76 | 51.46 | 52.32 | 56.52 | 38.92 | 35.50 | 34.80 | 45.96 |
| Jun 2019 | 44.53 | 43.42 | 32.87 | 36.23 | 29.24 | 27.49 | 47.16 | 48.58 | 58.33 | 33.15 | 25.06 | 28.59 | 30.73 |
| May 2019 | 47.56 | 49.22 | 38.09 | 40.19 | 37.20 | 38.00 | 48.39 | 50.67 | 55.40 | 37.70 | 35.06 | 39.15 | 39.86 |
| Apr 2019 | 49.90 | 49.44 | 37.54 | 40.84 | 38.12 | 37.92 | 50.40 | 53.39 | 53.19 | 39.41 | 39.66 | 41.34 | 41.37 |
| Mar 2019 | 51.61 | 49.67 | 30.70 | 40.50 | 33.85 | 37.61 | 48.84 | 52.86 | 46.56 | 34.39 | 39.38 | 41.69 | 39.98 |
| Feb 2019 | 57.38 | 55.02 | 43.01 | 46.85 | 46.61 | 47.57 | 54.02 | 57.64 | 49.50 | 43.25 | 45.56 | 45.97 | 46.75 |
| Jan 2019 | 68.58 | 79.42 | 49.95 | 58.30 | 61.15 | 60.48 | 61.96 | 67.64 | 56.13 | 50.88 | 54.34 | 54.48 | 55.81 |
Each bar is the simple average of the ten monthly values (our calculation), so both years cover the same months. Hover or tap a country for the change and for what 1 MW of constant load would pay for wholesale energy in a year at that price.
Source: Ember: European Wholesale Electricity Price Data (monthly, CC-BY-4.0, updated 4 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab). Averages and changes are our calculation. Accessed 4 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Country | Jan to Oct 2025 (€/MWh) | Jan to Oct 2026 (€/MWh) | Change | 1 MW all year at the 2026 average (€m, wholesale only) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 122.9 | 153.8 | +25.1% | 1.35 |
| Ireland | 114.2 | 148.2 | +29.8% | 1.30 |
| United Kingdom | 95.7 | 123.7 | +29.3% | 1.08 |
| Poland | 100.6 | 122.9 | +22.2% | 1.08 |
| Netherlands | 86.9 | 114.7 | +32% | 1.00 |
| Germany | 88.0 | 114.1 | +29.7% | 1.00 |
| Belgium | 83.4 | 114.1 | +36.8% | 1.00 |
| Denmark | 81.4 | 113.1 | +38.9% | 0.99 |
| Norway | 41.6 | 97.9 | +135.3% | 0.86 |
| France | 63.1 | 90.2 | +42.9% | 0.79 |
| Spain | 66.8 | 82.9 | +24.1% | 0.73 |
| Sweden | 40.7 | 69.4 | +70.5% | 0.61 |
| Finland | 39.9 | 58.2 | +45.9% | 0.51 |
How the 1 MW figure is worked out: 1 MW of load running every hour of the year uses 8,760 MWh. At the UK's Jan to Oct 2026 average of €123.7 per MWh that is about €1.08m of wholesale energy. A whole site uses more than its IT load, because cooling and power conversion add to it (the PUE), so multiply by the site's PUE for facility energy. See what 1 GW of IT load needs from the grid for the PUE steps.
Our commentary (not advice): the chart shows the market price a data centre's supplier buys at, not the operator's bill, so a rise like 2026's reaches operators when fixed-price contracts are renewed or through the unhedged part of their supply. The spread between markets is the steadier signal: from 2020 to 2026 (January to Oct for 2026), Sweden's and Finland's yearly averages were below Germany's and the UK's in every year of Ember's data, while in 2019 Germany was slightly cheaper than both (our calculation). Related: Europe and UK data centres, US capacity prices in PJM, compare markets.
Value of private construction put in place for data centre buildings, seasonally adjusted annual rate. Census counts the building only, not servers, racks or IT equipment, and puts power plants and grid lines in a separate category. The latest month is preliminary and will be revised in the next two releases.
Source: US Census Bureau: Construction Spending: private construction time series, seasonally adjusted annual rate (opens in a new tab) Published 1 Oct 2026, accessed 31 Oct 2026.
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| Month | US$bn a year | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | US$85.0bn | Preliminary |
| Jul 2026 | US$79.0bn | Published |
| Jun 2026 | US$72.7bn | Published |
| May 2026 | US$65.7bn | Published |
| Apr 2026 | US$61.9bn | Published |
| Mar 2026 | US$58.1bn | Published |
| Feb 2026 | US$57.4bn | Published |
| Jan 2026 | US$56.2bn | Published |
| Dec 2025 | US$55.5bn | Published |
| Nov 2025 | US$53.0bn | Published |
| Oct 2025 | US$54.3bn | Published |
| Sep 2025 | US$50.7bn | Published |
Our commentary (not advice): spending on US data centre buildings ran at US$85.0bn a year in Aug 2026, 73% more than in Aug 2025 and about 5 times the rate of Jan 2023. This is only the shell, cooling and electrical fit-out counted by Census, not the chips and servers that make up most hyperscaler capex above. Full regional picture: US and North America data centres.
Broadcom, Anthropic and four lenders · 26 Oct 2026 · Committed
US$63 billion to finance Broadcom AI chips leased to Anthropic
Bank of America, Citi and Morgan Stanley arrange the first-lien financing and Blackstone provides the committed second-lien portion, through a new special purpose vehicle that buys Broadcom XPU accelerators and networking and leases them to Anthropic. Broadcom gives residual value support equal to the first-lien portion. Deliveries are expected from calendar 2027.
Source: Broadcom Inc. (press release): Bank of America, Blackstone, Citi and Morgan Stanley Announce Landmark $63 Billion Financing Structure to Enable AI Compute Capacity in Partnership with Broadcom (opens in a new tab). How the buildout is financed matters: here the chips sit in a separate vehicle and are leased, rather than bought by the AI company.
AWS: sales, profit and margin by quarter, and the Gulf outages
Not investment advice. Amazon's filed AWS segment results, one company forecast and one analyst estimate, each with its date. We make no forecasts of our own.
Amazon's AWS segment figures from its Q3 2026 results (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1, filed 29 October 2026). Sales and operating income are both in US dollars, so they share one axis. Amazon does not report results by AWS region, so the UAE and Bahrain regions cannot be seen in these numbers. The strikes came in Q1 2026.
Source: Amazon.com, Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Results, supplemental financial information (opens in a new tab) Published 29 Oct 2026, accessed 31 Oct 2026.
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| Quarter | AWS sales | AWS operating income |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | US$30.9bn | US$10.2bn |
| Q3 2025 | US$33.0bn | US$11.4bn |
| Q4 2025 | US$35.6bn | US$12.5bn |
| Q1 2026 | US$37.6bn | US$14.2bn |
| Q2 2026 | US$42.2bn | US$16.6bn |
| Q3 2026 | US$46.0bn | US$17.8bn |
Operating income as a share of AWS sales, as reported by Amazon. A percentage, so it has its own chart rather than sharing the US$ axis.
Source: Amazon.com, Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Results, supplemental financial information (opens in a new tab) Accessed 31 Oct 2026.
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| Quarter | Operating margin |
|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 32.9% |
| Q3 2025 | 34.6% |
| Q4 2025 | 35.0% |
| Q1 2026 | 37.7% |
| Q2 2026 | 39.4% |
| Q3 2026 | 38.7% |
| Who | What they said | Type | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon (Andy Jassy, CEO) | Projected AWS revenue growth of over 40% in both 2027 and 2028 | Company forecast | 29 Oct 2026 | Amazon investor relations: Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Results (opens in a new tab) |
| Synergy Research Group | Amazon held 26% of worldwide cloud infrastructure services spending in Q3 2026, ahead of Microsoft (19%) and Google (16%) | Analyst estimate (not a forecast) | 29 Oct 2026 | Synergy Research Group: Cloud Market Growth Rate Surges to Well Over 50% per Year; Q3 Revenues Reach $168 Billion (opens in a new tab) |
Our commentary (not advice): AWS sales rose from US$30.9bn in Q2 2025 to US$46.0bn in Q3 2026, 49% higher on our calculation, and the margin moved from 32.9% to 38.7%. The March 2026 drone strikes left two of the three UAE zones impaired and later the Bahrain region unavailable, and AWS suspended relevant billing in the UAE region, but Amazon does not report results by region, so the effect cannot be seen in these totals. For investors the lesson is physical risk to assets, not this quarter's numbers. Full explainer: the AWS UAE and Bahrain attacks.
AWS vs Azure vs Google Cloud: revenue, growth and margins, and is AI capex paying off? Filed
Not investment advice. Revenue, operating income and growth rates are from each company's quarterly results filed with the SEC (Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1). Margins, differences and ratios are our calculation. We make no forecasts of our own and do not rate the shares.
The three biggest cloud companies are also the biggest buyers of data centre capacity, chips, cooling and power. Their cloud sales show whether the money they spend on new data centres is coming back as revenue. In the July to September 2026 quarter all three grew faster than a year earlier, and Google Cloud more than doubled.
Key takeaways
- Biggest: AWS, with US$46.0bn of sales in Q3 2026.
- Fastest: Google Cloud, up 103% year on year, against 48% for Azure and 39% for AWS (as reported).
- Payback check: cloud revenue is rising fast, but capex is rising faster. Each parent company's Q3 2026 capex was Amazon 120%, Microsoft 103%, Alphabet 114% higher than a year earlier (our calculation), and larger than its cloud revenue in the quarter.
AWSMicrosoft AzureGoogle Cloud
Confirmed
US$46.0bn
AWS sales in Q3 2026, up 39% on Q3 2025
Confirmed
US$33.2bn
Microsoft Azure revenue in Q3 2026, up 48%, now shown in dollars under Microsoft's new segments
Confirmed
US$30.7bn
Google Cloud revenue in Q3 2026, up 103%, its fastest growth on record
Confirmed
US$677bn
Microsoft commercial remaining performance obligation (signed contracts not yet earned), up 73%
All three are calendar July to September quarters (Microsoft's fiscal Q1 FY27). AWS and Google Cloud are reported segments. Azure is the revenue line Microsoft began reporting in October 2026 under its new segments, with Q3 2025 recast by Microsoft, so it is not the same as the older Intelligent Cloud segment. Hover or tap a bar for growth and the definition.
Sources: Amazon.com, Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Results (Q3 2026) (opens in a new tab); Microsoft Corp. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Microsoft Announces First Quarter Results (FY27, quarter to 30 September 2026) (opens in a new tab); Alphabet Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Alphabet Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab); Azure definition: Microsoft Corp. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): FY27 Segments and Investor Metrics (opens in a new tab). Accessed 2 Nov 2026.
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| Cloud | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | Change (our calculation) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWS | US$33.0bn | US$46.0bn | +US$13.0bn (39%) | Reported segment revenue |
| Microsoft Azure | US$22.4bn | US$33.2bn | +US$10.8bn (48%) | Azure revenue as defined from FY27 (more purely Microsoft's consumption-based platform and infrastructure business), Q3 2025 recast by Microsoft |
| Google Cloud | US$15.2bn | US$30.7bn | +US$15.6bn (103%) | Reported segment revenue |
Growth as each company stated it in its results release. Q3 2025 to Q2 2026: 'Azure and other cloud services revenue' growth as reported then. Q3 2026: 'Azure revenue' growth under the FY27 definition. Not strictly the same measure. Click a name in the legend to hide or show a line.
Sources: Amazon.com, Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Results (Q3 2025) (opens in a new tab); Amazon.com, Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Amazon.com Announces Fourth Quarter Results (Q4 2025) (opens in a new tab); Amazon.com, Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Amazon.com Announces First Quarter Results (Q1 2026) (opens in a new tab); Amazon.com, Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Amazon.com Announces Second Quarter Results (Q2 2026) (opens in a new tab); Amazon.com, Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Results (Q3 2026) (opens in a new tab); Microsoft Corp. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Microsoft first quarter FY26 results (quarter to 30 September 2025) (opens in a new tab); Microsoft Corp. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Microsoft Cloud and AI Strength Drives Second Quarter Results (FY26) (opens in a new tab); Microsoft Corp. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Microsoft Cloud and AI Strength Fuels Third Quarter Results (FY26) (opens in a new tab); Microsoft Corp. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Microsoft Cloud and AI Strength Fuels Fourth Quarter Results (FY26) (opens in a new tab); Microsoft Corp. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Microsoft Announces First Quarter Results (FY27, quarter to 30 September 2026) (opens in a new tab); Alphabet Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Alphabet Announces Third Quarter 2025 Results (opens in a new tab); Alphabet Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Results (opens in a new tab); Alphabet Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Alphabet Announces First Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab); Alphabet Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Alphabet Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab); Alphabet Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Alphabet Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab). Accessed 2 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Quarter | AWS | Microsoft Azure | Google Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 20% | 40% (Azure and other cloud services) | 34% |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | 39% (Azure and other cloud services) | 48% |
| Q1 2026 | 28% | 40% (Azure and other cloud services) | 63% |
| Q2 2026 | 37% | 43% (Azure and other cloud services) | 82% |
| Q3 2026 | 39% | 48% | 103% |
Operating income divided by segment revenue, our calculation from the filed figures. Google Cloud's margin rose from 20.7% to 36.2% in five quarters, close to AWS at 38.7%. Microsoft does not report Azure operating income, so it has no line here.
Sources: Amazon.com, Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Results (Q3 2026) (opens in a new tab); Alphabet Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Alphabet Announces Second Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab); Alphabet Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Alphabet Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab); Alphabet Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Alphabet Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Results (opens in a new tab); Alphabet Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Alphabet Announces First Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab). Accessed 2 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Quarter | AWS revenue | AWS operating income | AWS margin | Google Cloud revenue | Google Cloud operating income | Google Cloud margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | US$30.9bn | US$10.2bn | 32.9% | US$13.6bn | US$2.8bn | 20.7% |
| Q3 2025 | US$33.0bn | US$11.4bn | 34.6% | US$15.2bn | US$3.6bn | 23.7% |
| Q4 2025 | US$35.6bn | US$12.5bn | 35% | US$17.7bn | US$5.3bn | 30.1% |
| Q1 2026 | US$37.6bn | US$14.2bn | 37.7% | US$20.0bn | US$6.6bn | 32.9% |
| Q2 2026 | US$42.2bn | US$16.6bn | 39.4% | US$24.8bn | US$8.8bn | 35.6% |
| Q3 2026 | US$46.0bn | US$17.8bn | 38.7% | US$30.7bn | US$11.1bn | 36.2% |
Capex is each parent company's purchases of property and equipment in the quarter, from its 10-Q, and pays for retail, advertising and other businesses too, so this is a rough yardstick, not a return on investment. Data centres take years to fill, so today's capex earns revenue over many years. Hover or tap a bar for the ratio.
Sources: cloud revenue as above; capex: US Securities and Exchange Commission: EDGAR XBRL company facts (10-Q and 10-K filings) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 2 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Cloud revenue Q3 2026 | Company-wide capex Q3 2026 | Cloud revenue as % of capex (our calculation) | Cloud revenue added in a year (our calculation) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon (AWS) | US$46.0bn | US$77.3bn | 60% | US$13.0bn |
| Microsoft (Microsoft Azure) | US$33.2bn | US$39.4bn | 84% | US$10.8bn |
| Alphabet (Google Cloud) | US$30.7bn | US$51.4bn | 60% | US$15.6bn |
| Company | Figure | What it measures | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Google Cloud | US$155bn | backlog at the end of Q3 2025 | Alphabet Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Alphabet Announces Third Quarter 2025 Results (opens in a new tab) |
| Google Cloud | over US$460bn | backlog at the end of Q1 2026, which Alphabet said nearly doubled quarter on quarter | Alphabet Inc. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Alphabet Announces First Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab) |
| Microsoft | US$677bn | commercial remaining performance obligation at 30 September 2026, up 73% (all commercial contracts, not only Azure) | Microsoft Corp. (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Microsoft Announces First Quarter Results (FY27, quarter to 30 September 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
Our commentary (not advice): between Q3 2025 and Q3 2026 the three clouds together added US$39.3bn of quarterly revenue on our calculation, while their parent companies spent US$168.0bn on property and equipment in Q3 2026 alone. Revenue is growing at its fastest pace in years and Google Cloud's margin has caught up with AWS, so the new capacity is being sold. But capex is still growing faster than cloud revenue, which is why free cash flow has turned negative (see hyperscaler free cash flow). For engineers and suppliers, the backlog figures matter most: they are contracts that still need data centres, power and cooling to be built. Related: AWS results, hyperscalers list, chip makers.
Picks and shovels: Q3 2026 results of listed power and cooling suppliers Filed
Hyperscaler capex ends up as orders for switchgear, UPS, chillers and grid equipment. These seven listed suppliers reported their July to September 2026 quarter between 16 October and 3 November (nVent and ABB added on 1 November 2026, Eaton on 3 November, as part of a quarterly supplier results tracker). All grew sales by double digits, and their order books grew faster than their sales.
US$42.2bn
GE Vernova: Electrification equipment backlog, up 60% in a year (includes US$5bn from Prolec GE)
Source: GE Vernova (opens in a new tab)
Trane Technologies
US$12.5bn
Trane Technologies: backlog, up 73%; Americas Commercial HVAC backlog up about 80%
Triple-digit
Schneider Electric: growth in data centre demand in Q3 2026, the company says
US$12.1bn
ABB: record orders in Q3 2026, up 40% (40% comparable), with data centre orders up by triple digits; book-to-bill 1.24
Source: ABB (opens in a new tab)
nVent
>70%
nVent: organic sales growth in its infrastructure vertical in Q3 2026, mainly data centres; record orders, no order total given
+46%
Eaton: Electrical backlog at the end of September 2026, year on year (Electrical Global up 121%, including Boyd Thermal); twelve-month rolling organic orders up 39% in Electrical Americas and 51% in Electrical Global
Reported growth includes acquisitions and currency. Organic growth strips them out, as defined by each company. GE Vernova is its Electrification segment only (grid and switchgear), and its reported growth includes the Prolec GE acquisition. Schneider Electric is the whole group in euros. ABB is the whole group, and its organic figure is ABB's comparable growth. nVent is the whole group. Eaton is the whole group, including its Aerospace and Mobility segments (see the Eaton segment chart below). Percentages only, so different currencies and sizes can share one chart.
VertivGE Vernova ElectrificationnVentEatonTrane TechnologiesSchneider ElectricABB
Sources: Vertiv: Vertiv Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 (press release, 28 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); GE Vernova: Third quarter 2026 press release (SEC filing, 28 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); nVent: nVent Delivers Record Sales and Orders in Q3 2026 (press release, SEC filing, 30 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); Eaton (Business Wire): Eaton Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Results, with Strong Organic Growth, Accelerating Record Orders and Backlog; Raises Organic Growth Guidance (press release, 3 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab); Trane Technologies: Trane Technologies Reports Strong Third-Quarter Results (29 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); Investing.com: Schneider Electric raises 2026 target as Q3 sales beat forecasts on data centres (16 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); ABB: Q3 2026 results (group press release, 20 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 3 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Scope | Reported growth | Organic growth | Results date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vertiv | Group | 61.2% | 55% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| GE Vernova Electrification | Electrification segment | 51% | 16% | 28 Oct 2026 |
| nVent | Group | 43.7% | 43.9% | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Eaton | Group | 28% | 19% | 3 Nov 2026 |
| Trane Technologies | Group | 18% | 16% | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Schneider Electric | Group | 17.9% | 16.9% | 16 Oct 2026 |
| ABB | Group | 14% | 14% | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Company | Measure | Forecast | Given | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vertiv | Full-year 2026 net sales | US$14.45bn to US$14.85bn (organic growth 37% to 39%) | 28 Oct 2026 | Vertiv: Vertiv Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 (press release, 28 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| GE Vernova | Full-year 2026 Electrification revenue | US$14.5bn to US$15.0bn (includes about US$3.1bn from Prolec GE) | 28 Oct 2026 | GE Vernova: Third quarter 2026 press release (SEC filing, 28 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| Trane Technologies | Full-year 2026 revenue growth | About 13.5% reported, about 11% organic | 29 Oct 2026 | Trane Technologies: Trane Technologies Reports Strong Third-Quarter Results (29 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| nVent | Full-year 2026 sales growth | 48% to 49% reported, 38% to 39% organic (raised from 37% to 39% and 32% to 34%) | 30 Oct 2026 | nVent: nVent Delivers Record Sales and Orders in Q3 2026 (press release, SEC filing, 30 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| ABB | Full-year 2026 comparable revenue growth | "Low teens" range, positive book-to-bill, Operational EBITA margin up at least 270 basis points | 20 Oct 2026 | ABB: Q3 2026 results (group press release, 20 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| Eaton | Full-year 2026 organic growth | 13% to 15%, segment margins 24.1% to 24.5%, adjusted EPS US$13.70 to US$13.80 | 3 Nov 2026 | Eaton (Business Wire): Eaton Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Results, with Strong Organic Growth, Accelerating Record Orders and Backlog; Raises Organic Growth Guidance (press release, 3 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
Eaton earnings, Q3 2026: where the growth came from
Eaton reported on 3 November 2026: record sales of US$8.9bn, up 28% (19% organic, 8% from acquisitions, 1% currency), record segment margins of 25.3% and backlog up 46% in its Electrical businesses. The chart splits sales by segment, a year apart. Hover or tap a bar for the margin, organic growth, orders and backlog Eaton gives for that segment.
Sales and segment operating profit as filed in Eaton's Q3 2026 release (US$m, converted to US$bn here). Margins and organic growth are as Eaton states them. Electrical Global's reported growth includes Boyd Thermal, bought on 12 March 2026 (31 percentage points of the 58%). Backlog and orders are Eaton's year-on-year changes; it gives no dollar backlog total in the release and no backlog for Mobility, which it plans to separate.
Source: Eaton (Business Wire): Eaton Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Results, with Strong Organic Growth, Accelerating Record Orders and Backlog; Raises Organic Growth Guidance (press release, 3 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 3 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Segment | Q3 2025 sales (US$m) | Q3 2026 sales (US$m) | Operating profit Q3 2026 (US$m) | Operating margin (Eaton) | Organic growth (Eaton) | Twelve-month organic orders | Backlog, year on year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electrical Americas | 3,410 | 4,172 | 1,243 | 29.8% | 22% | +39% | +33% |
| Electrical Global | 1,724 | 2,727 | 576 | 21.1% | 27% | +51% | +121% |
| Aerospace | 1,079 | 1,196 | 298 | 24.9% | 6% | +20% | +33% |
| Mobility | 775 | 852 | 146 | 17.2% | 9% | not given | not given |
Our commentary (not advice): the gap between the two bars matters. Vertiv's 61% reported growth was 55% organic, so most of it came from existing businesses. GE Vernova Electrification's 51% was 16% organic, so most of the jump came from buying Prolec GE. Schneider Electric and Trane grew about 16% to 17% organically. nVent, which describes itself as a maker of electrical connection and protection products, grew 43.9% organically, about the same as its reported growth, and says its infrastructure sales, mainly data centres, grew by more than 70%. ABB grew 14% on a comparable basis, but its orders rose 40%, so its order book is growing faster than its sales. Eaton grew 28%, of which 19% was organic, and its Electrical Global segment's 121% backlog growth includes Boyd Thermal, the liquid cooling maker it bought in March 2026, so part of that jump is acquired, not organic. Order books (above) are the better guide to 2027, and the companies' own forecasts are in the table. Related: hyperscaler capex, supplier news.
Data centre landlords: Equinix vs Digital Realty, Q3 2026 results and 2026 guidance Filed
Not investment advice. Results are from each company's SEC filings. The 2026 guidance lines are the companies' own forecasts, shown with the date each was given, not ours. Bookings and backlog are defined differently by each company, so they sit side by side and are never added up or ranked.
Confirmed
US$2.571bn
Equinix revenue in Q3 2026, up 11% on Q3 2025
Confirmed
US$1.902bn
Digital Realty revenue in Q3 2026, up 21% on Q3 2025
Confirmed
US$2.5bn
Digital Realty record backlog of signed leases not yet started (100% share)
GAAP revenue for each quarter. Digital Realty's Q2 2026 figure includes US$201m of one-off promote income, so its Q3 dip is not a fall in rent. Hover or tap a quarter for the note.
Sources: Equinix via SEC EDGAR: Equinix Reports Third-Quarter Results and Raises 2026 Guidance (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 28 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); Equinix via SEC EDGAR: Equinix Reports First-Quarter Results and Raises Full-Year Financial Outlook (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 Apr 2026) (opens in a new tab); Equinix via SEC EDGAR: Equinix Provides Robust 2026 Outlook Driven by Strong Fourth-Quarter Results (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 11 Feb 2026) (opens in a new tab); Digital Realty via SEC EDGAR: Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Financial Supplement (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 1 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Quarter | Equinix (US$m) | Digital Realty (US$m) |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 2,316 | 1,577.2 |
| Q4 2025 | 2,420 | 1,634.7 |
| Q1 2026 | 2,444 | 1,635.2 |
| Q2 2026 | 2,625 | 1,924 |
| Q3 2026 | 2,571 | 1,902.4 |
Midpoint of each company's full-year 2026 revenue guidance, indexed to its February figure. Equinix has raised its midpoint by 1.7% since February and Digital Realty by 6.6% (Digital Realty excludes promote income). Hover or tap a point for the full ranges.
Sources: the companies' guidance as restated in Equinix via SEC EDGAR: Equinix Reports Third-Quarter Results and Raises 2026 Guidance (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 28 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab), Equinix via SEC EDGAR: Equinix Reports Second-Quarter Results, Raises 2026 Guidance and Long-Term Outlook (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 Jul 2026) (opens in a new tab), Equinix via SEC EDGAR: Equinix Reports First-Quarter Results and Raises Full-Year Financial Outlook (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 Apr 2026) (opens in a new tab), Equinix via SEC EDGAR: Equinix Provides Robust 2026 Outlook Driven by Strong Fourth-Quarter Results (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 11 Feb 2026) (opens in a new tab) and Digital Realty via SEC EDGAR: Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Financial Supplement (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab) (which lists all four Digital Realty updates). Accessed 1 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Given | Low (US$m) | High (US$m) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equinix | 11 Feb 2026 | 10,123 | 10,223 | Total revenues |
| Equinix | 29 Apr 2026 | 10,144 | 10,244 | Total revenues |
| Equinix | 29 Jul 2026 | 10,205 | 10,285 | Total revenues |
| Equinix | 28 Oct 2026 | 10,325 | 10,365 | Total revenues |
| Digital Realty | 5 Feb 2026 | 6,600 | 6,700 | Total revenue excluding promote income |
| Digital Realty | 23 Apr 2026 | 6,650 | 6,750 | Total revenue excluding promote income |
| Digital Realty | 23 Jul 2026 | 6,850 | 6,950 | Total revenue excluding promote income |
| Digital Realty | 29 Oct 2026 | 7,050 | 7,125 | Total revenue excluding promote income |
| Measure | Equinix | Digital Realty |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 revenue | US$2,571m, up 11% on Q3 2025 | US$1,902m, up 21% on Q3 2025 |
| Bookings in Q3 2026 | Record annualised gross bookings of US$533m, up 35% year on year | Record US$627m of new leases (annualised GAAP base rent) at Digital Realty's share, US$855m at 100% share |
| Signed but not yet started | Not published as a figure in the Q3 release | Record backlog of US$1.8bn at Digital Realty's share, US$2.5bn at 100% share |
| Large leases (over 1 MW) in Q3 2026 | Not published in the Q3 release | 143.6 MW at an average GAAP base rent of US$275 per kW a month (Digital Realty's share) |
| 2026 capital spending guidance | Non-recurring capex US$4,710m to US$5,690m (excluding xScale and real estate acquisitions), up from US$3,385m to US$3,865m (excluding xScale) in February. Total capex US$5bn to US$6bn | Not compared here (Digital Realty gives development spend in its supplement on a different basis) |
| Leverage | Not published in the Q3 release | Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA 5.2x at 30 Sep 2026 (4.9x pro forma, company calculation) |
| Capacity | Nearly 40% more cabinets planned for delivery in 2026 than first expected | About 3.2 GW of IT capacity in place and about 9.8 GW of buildable IT capacity under development or held for future development |
Megawatts of new leases signed in the quarter. Asia Pacific signed the most capacity and at the highest average rent per kW. Hover or tap a bar for the rent.
Source: Digital Realty via SEC EDGAR: Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Financial Supplement (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 29 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 1 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Region | MW leased | US$ per kW a month |
|---|---|---|
| Americas | 75.6 | 267 |
| EMEA | 29.5 | 220 |
| Asia Pacific | 79.7 | 296 |
Our commentary (not advice): both landlords describe demand from AI and cloud customers as lifting prices as well as volumes. Digital Realty's record backlog is rent already signed that starts between now and 2028 or later, while Equinix, best known for retail colocation and interconnection, has raised its 2026 non-recurring capex guidance by more than a third since February to deliver capacity sooner. Leverage and the cost of debt now matter as much as demand, so watch Digital Realty's 5.2x net debt to Adjusted EBITDA and both companies' Q4 guidance in February 2027. Related: supplier results, data centre operators, capex data.
NEXTDC Goodman Why NEXTDC shares dropped, and what Digital Realty and Goodman paid for 9.9%: the M3 Melbourne power delay and capex guidance Filed
Not investment advice. All amounts are in Australian dollars. The stake figures are from the buyers' ASX release and their Form 603 substantial holder notice; the purchases by day, the total cost and the averages are our calculation from the notice's trade-by-trade list and match the A$9.22 average the buyers state. NEXTDC's results and guidance are the company's own, for its financial year to 30 June. We do not set price targets or rate the shares.
Between 3 and 6 November 2026 Digital Realty and Goodman Group, through a 50:50 vehicle, bought 9.9% of NEXTDC, one of Australia's largest listed data centre operators. The price tells the story of a grid connection: NEXTDC's shares had fallen after it said on 21 October that suspended 66 kV power works by the network operator Jemena would delay the next increase in grid supply to its M3 Melbourne campus until its 2028 financial year, and cut its FY27 guidance. For engineers and developers this is a live example of how a power connection, not demand, sets the delivery date; for investors, of how the market prices that delay.
Confirmed
9.9%
of NEXTDC bought by Digital Realty and Goodman: 75,215,528 shares from 3 to 6 November 2026
Confirmed
A$693.7m
paid in total at an average A$9.22 a share (our calculation from the Form 603 trade list)
Confirmed
A$140m
of FY27 net revenue, and the same of underlying EBITDA, taken out of NEXTDC's guidance with the affected M3 contracts
Confirmed
565.1 MW
forward order book of signed contracts not yet billing at 30 June 2026 (pro forma), 3.2 times billing utilisation
Most of the stake, 59.95 million shares, was bought on 5 November at A$9.50, the price in the term sheet published after the market closed on 4 November, which DCD reported as a 45.5% premium to that day's close. Earlier purchases were at about A$6 a share and later ones up to A$10.40. Tap or hover a bar for the day's average price.
Sources: ASX: Form 603: Notice of initial substantial holder in NEXTDC Limited, with Annexure C list of purchases (9 November 2026) (opens in a new tab) (Annexure C, our aggregation by day); Goodman Group and Digital Realty (ASX release): Digital Realty and Goodman acquisition of 9.9% interest in NEXTDC (9 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); DCD (DatacenterDynamics): Digital Realty and Goodman Group line up AU$715m bid for stake in Australia's NextDC (4 November 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Day (2026) | Purchases | Shares | Average price (A$, our calculation) | Lowest to highest (A$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov | 29 | 1,050,000 | 6.19 | 5.995 to 6.27 |
| 4 Nov | 59 | 6,650,000 | 6.41 | 6.245 to 6.58 |
| 5 Nov | 59 | 61,517,514 | 9.50 | 9.07 to 9.5 |
| 6 Nov | 70 | 5,998,014 | 10.06 | 9.4 to 10.4 |
| Total | 217 | 75,215,528 | 9.22 | 5.995 to 10.4 |
Bars show NEXTDC's own guidance range for the year to 30 June 2027 as given on 27 August and as revised on 21 October, next to the FY26 result. The October range leaves out the affected M3 contracts entirely, including capacity already billing; NEXTDC says service level credits on those contracts could take EBITDA below the revised range. Hover or tap a bar for its basis.
Sources: NEXTDC (ASX release): FY26 Record Results and Record FY27 Growth Guidance (27 August 2026) (opens in a new tab); NEXTDC (ASX release): M3 Melbourne Power Delay and Revised FY27 Guidance (21 October 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Measure | FY26 actual (A$m) | FY27 guidance, 27 Aug (A$m) | FY27 guidance, 21 Oct (A$m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | 405 | 615 to 640 | 475 to 500 |
| Underlying EBITDA | 248.8 | 385 to 410 | 245 to 265 |
| Capital expenditure | 3,397 | 5,250 to 5,750 | 4,500 to 5,000 (includes about A$230m of capitalised interest, which the August range did not) |
Contracted utilisation tripled in the year while built capacity grew 38% (our calculation), so most of the contracted megawatts still have to be built and powered. NEXTDC expected 197 MW of the order book to start billing in FY27 and 221 MW in FY28 (its August expectation, before the M3 delay). Contracted and order book figures are pro forma, as disclosed on 21 July 2026.
Source: NEXTDC (ASX release): FY26 Record Results and Record FY27 Growth Guidance (27 August 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Measure | 30 June 2025 (MW) | 30 June 2026 (MW) |
|---|---|---|
| Built capacity | 207.9 | 287.9 |
| Billing utilisation | 110.9 | 175 |
| Contracted utilisation (pro forma) | 244.8 | 740.1 |
| Forward order book (pro forma) | 133.9 | 565.1 |
Key takeaways
- The buyers paid an average A$9.22 a share, about A$693.7m in total (our calculation), below the A$715m implied by the A$9.50 term sheet price because some shares were bought before it at about A$6. Neither has a present intention to bid for control, but both reserve the right to (Goodman Group and Digital Realty (ASX release): Digital Realty and Goodman acquisition of 9.9% interest in NEXTDC (9 November 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
- The trigger was power, not demand: Jemena suspended parts of the 66 kV line works for M3 in September 2026 and does not expect to restart before February 2027, and the Victorian planning decision on M3 stages 6 and 7 is expected only after the state election on 28 November 2026 (NEXTDC (ASX release): M3 Melbourne Power Delay and Revised FY27 Guidance (21 October 2026) (opens in a new tab)). DCD reports the expansion would take M3 from 60 MW to 225 MW (DCD (DatacenterDynamics): Digital Realty and Goodman Group line up AU$715m bid for stake in Australia's NextDC (4 November 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
- NEXTDC reported A$8.7bn of liquidity at 30 September 2026, says it meets its debt covenants, and will announce the result of a review of its capital spending by its annual general meeting on 20 November 2026 (NEXTDC (ASX release): M3 Melbourne Power Delay and Revised FY27 Guidance (21 October 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
- Before the delay, NEXTDC put the contracted EBITDA from its existing contracts at more than A$1.0bn (its own estimate and a forward-looking statement, excluding new wins), against A$248.8m of underlying EBITDA in FY26 (NEXTDC (ASX release): FY26 Record Results and Record FY27 Growth Guidance (27 August 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
Our commentary (not advice): for developers, engineers and procurement teams, M3 shows that a contracted hall can still wait on a distribution network upgrade, so power works, poles and cable routes belong on the critical path and in community engagement plans from the start. For consultants and investors, the stake values Australian data centre equity at a time when a single grid delay moved a year of guidance. Related: Equinix vs Digital Realty results, data centre M&A deals, Rest of Asia Pacific, compare data centre markets, latest news.
AI clouds on borrowed money: Oracle and CoreWeave capex, debt and backlog (RPO) Filed
Not investment advice. Capex, operating cash flow, debt and remaining performance obligations (RPO) are from each company's 10-Q and 10-K on SEC EDGAR. The companies file cash flow as year-to-date totals, so single quarters and free cash flow are our calculation. Oracle's targets are Oracle's own forecasts with their date, not ours. We do not rate the debt or the shares.
Oracle and CoreWeave rent out AI computing power from data centres they lease or build. Both are spending faster than their operations bring in cash, and both have signed customer contracts worth several times their debt. The charts show the gap, how it is being filled and what the contracts are worth.
OracleCoreWeave
Confirmed
US$664bn
Oracle remaining performance obligations at 31 Aug 2026, up from US$455.3bn a year earlier
Confirmed
US$125.3bn
Oracle notes payable and other borrowings at 31 Aug 2026
Confirmed
US$35.6bn
CoreWeave debt at 30 Jun 2026, 3.2 times the level a year earlier (our calculation)
Confirmed
25%
of CoreWeave's Q2 2026 revenue went on net interest (US$640m against US$267m a year earlier), our calculation
Oracle's fiscal year ends on 31 May, so Q1 FY27 is June to August 2026. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital expenditures, our calculation, and negative in all five quarters (red). Q1 FY27 operating cash flow includes US$11.4bn of customer prepayments recorded as deferred revenue. Oracle's own release gives Q1 FY27 free cash flow as negative US$5bn. Hover or tap a quarter for revenue and the filing.
Sources: Oracle via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 August 2025 (filed 10 Sep 2025) (opens in a new tab); Oracle via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 November 2025 (filed 11 Dec 2025) (opens in a new tab); Oracle via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 28 February 2026 (filed 11 Mar 2026) (opens in a new tab); Oracle via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-K for the year ended 31 May 2026 (filed 22 Jun 2026) (opens in a new tab); Oracle via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 August 2026 (filed 11 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab); Oracle via SEC EDGAR: Oracle Announces Q1 Results (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 10 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 1 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Quarter | Operating cash flow (US$m) | Capex (US$m) | Free cash flow, our calculation (US$m) | Revenue (US$m) | Borrowings at quarter end (US$m) | RPO (US$bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 (Jun-Aug 2025) | 8,140 | 8,502 | -362 | 14,926 | 91,315 | 455.3 |
| Q2 FY26 (Sep-Nov 2025) | 2,066 | 12,033 | -9,967 | 16,058 | 108,075 | 523.3 |
| Q3 FY26 (Dec 2025-Feb 2026) | 7,151 | 18,635 | -11,484 | 17,190 | 134,605 | 552.6 |
| Q4 FY26 (Mar-May 2026) | 14,620 | 16,493 | -1,873 | 19,184 | 129,541 | 638 |
| Q1 FY27 (Jun-Aug 2026) | 23,103 | 28,499 | -5,396 | 19,345 | 125,337 | 664 |
Free cash flow is operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment, our calculation, and negative in all five quarters (red). Revenue more than doubled to US$2.58bn in Q2 2026, while debt rose from US$11.2bn to US$35.6bn. Hover or tap a quarter for revenue and the filing.
Sources: CoreWeave via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2025 (filed 13 Aug 2025) (opens in a new tab); CoreWeave via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2025 (filed 13 Nov 2025) (opens in a new tab); CoreWeave via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-K for 2025 (filed 2 Mar 2026) (opens in a new tab); CoreWeave via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 March 2026 (filed 8 May 2026) (opens in a new tab); CoreWeave via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (filed 12 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); CoreWeave via SEC EDGAR: CoreWeave Reports Strong Second Quarter 2026 Results (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 1 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Quarter | Operating cash flow (US$m) | Capex (US$m) | Free cash flow, our calculation (US$m) | Revenue (US$m) | Debt at quarter end (US$m) | RPO (US$bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | -251 | 2,453 | -2,704 | 1,213 | 11,171 | 30.1 |
| Q3 2025 | 1,689 | 2,389 | -700 | 1,365 | 14,205 | 50 |
| Q4 2025 | 1,559 | 4,060 | -2,501 | 1,572 | 21,615 | 60.7 |
| Q1 2026 | 2,984 | 7,695 | -4,711 | 2,078 | 25,149 | 98.8 |
| Q2 2026 | 679 | 6,422 | -5,743 | 2,575 | 35,551 | 103.7 |
RPO is contracted revenue not yet earned, so it is future income only if the capacity is delivered. Oracle expects to recognise about 13% of the US$664bn within 12 months, 37% in months 13 to 36, 34% in months 37 to 60 and the rest after that (10-Q, 31 Aug 2026). Oracle's RPO is 5.3 times its borrowings and CoreWeave's 2.9 times its debt (our calculation). Lease liabilities are not included in debt here.
Sources: Oracle via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 31 August 2026 (filed 11 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab); CoreWeave via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 (filed 12 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 1 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Date | RPO (US$bn) | Debt (US$bn) | Debt measure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oracle | 31 Aug 2026 | 664 | 125.3 | Notes payable and other borrowings, current plus non-current, at the end of each quarter |
| CoreWeave | 30 Jun 2026 | 103.7 | 35.6 | Debt carrying amount as tagged in each filing (all debt facilities and notes) |
| Measure | Oracle target |
|---|---|
| Total revenue, FY27 (year to May 2027) | At least US$90bn (reaffirmed) |
| Total revenue, FY30 | US$225bn or more, more than 35% a year growth from FY26 |
| Capex | Peak in FY27 and FY28, stepping down in FY29 |
| Free cash flow | Positive in the second half of FY28, at least US$30bn in FY29 |
| New money from capital markets, FY27 to FY30 | Limited to US$20bn (about US$10bn equity, US$10bn gross debt), excluding refinancing and on top of the US$20bn of shares sold in Q1 FY27 |
| Net debt to adjusted EBITDA | Below 3.5 times in FY29 (net debt includes borrowings, vendor financing and lease liabilities, less cash) |
Source: Oracle via SEC EDGAR: Oracle Investor Day 2026: Accelerating Value Creation (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 28 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab). Oracle says vendor financing, customer-provided hardware and customer prepayments are expected to reduce its upfront cash needs.
How the gap was filled (from the filings): in Q1 FY27 Oracle sold US$19.9bn of shares through its at-the-market programme, repaid US$4.2bn of debt and took US$11.4bn of customer prepayments. On 22 Sep 2026 CoreWeave completed a US$4.2bn offering of 2.875% convertible senior notes due 2033 (upsized from US$3.0bn). The same filing lists its existing senior notes at 9.250% (2030), 9.000% (2031), 9.750% (2031), 9.625% (2032) and 8.500% (2032), and 1.75% convertible notes due 2031 and 2032. CoreWeave reports 1.5 GW of active power and about 3.7 GW contracted.
Our commentary (not advice): both companies are buying GPUs, power and buildings years before the contracts pay out, so their capex runs ahead of cash from operations and the difference comes from bonds, loans, share sales and customer prepayments. For suppliers of cooling, power and construction this matters because orders from these buyers depend on that financing staying open. CoreWeave reported Q3 2026 on 10 November (see CoreWeave Q3 against guidance; the debt and RPO figures here stay at 30 June until we read its Q3 10-Q). Signs to watch are Oracle's Q2 FY27, usually in December, interest cost against revenue, how much RPO turns into revenue within 12 months, and whether Oracle keeps to its US$20bn limit on new capital. Related: hyperscaler free cash flow, chip and lease financing, capex data, hyperscalers and cloud markets.
Data centre moratorium risk by state after the 2026 midterms: 37.5 GW of 2028 capacity Forecast
Not investment advice. The gigawatt figures are a published estimate by Michael Cembalest of J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Eye on the Market, 4 November 2026, from Aterio and SemiAnalysis data), not our forecast. No state has passed a new pause because of the election yet. "Pause" and "conditions" are JPMAM's labels for what a governor could do. The sector share moves are as reported by Moneycontrol, which does not name the index provider.
After the 3 November midterms, the question for anyone building, supplying or financing US data centres is not Congress but the states. JPMAM lists ten states where the incoming or sitting governor has backed a pause on new data centres or conditions on them, and how many gigawatts each was expected to add in 2028. Projects already under construction for 2027 are mostly safe. The 2028 wave, much of which has not broken ground, is where the risk sits.
Projected
37.5 GW
of the 96 GW of US data centre capacity expected in 2028 may be subject to a pause (JPMAM estimate)
Projected
15 GW
more may face conditions, such as paying grid costs, water limits or losing tax breaks (JPMAM estimate)
Projected
75%
of the 37 GW expected in 2027 is already under construction, so JPMAM sees little risk to it
Projected
26.5 GW
Texas alone, the largest single state exposure, where the governor-elect backs a moratorium
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Michael Cembalest, Eye on the Market): Now You Can See Everything: on the midterms, AI, markets, the Theranos film and corporate fraud (4 Nov 2026, PDF) (opens in a new tab); Institutional Investor: Michael Cembalest: Data Centers Could Be a Victim of the Democratic Sweep of Congress (opens in a new tab)
Each bar is the capacity JPMAM expects the state to add in 2028, coloured by the outcome it gives for the governor who won. Tap or hover a state to see JPMAM's outcome under either party. Texas, Georgia and Iowa use the Democratic column (Institutional Investor reports all three flipped). Ohio, Illinois, Arizona, Wyoming and Oregon have the same outcome either way. For Pennsylvania and Oklahoma we use the column that makes the states add up to JPMAM's own totals (37.5 GW paused, about 15 GW with conditions). Use the legend to show one outcome at a time.
Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Michael Cembalest, Eye on the Market): Now You Can See Everything: on the midterms, AI, markets, the Theranos film and corporate fraud (4 Nov 2026, PDF) (opens in a new tab) (table source: Aterio, SemiAnalysis, JPMAM); Institutional Investor: Michael Cembalest: Data Centers Could Be a Victim of the Democratic Sweep of Congress (opens in a new tab). State sums are our calculation. Accessed 9 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| State | 2028 GW expected | Outcome (Republican governor) | Outcome (Democratic governor) | Outcome used here |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 26.5 | Conditions | Pause | Pause |
| Ohio | 5.2 | Pause | Pause | Pause |
| Georgia | 5.1 | Conditions | Pause | Pause |
| Pennsylvania | 4.7 | Pause | Conditions | Conditions |
| Illinois | 2.9 | Conditions | Conditions | Conditions |
| Arizona | 2.7 | Conditions | Conditions | Conditions |
| Oklahoma | 2.1 | Conditions | Pause | Conditions |
| Iowa | 1.6 | Pause | Conditions | Conditions |
| Wyoming | 0.8 | Conditions | Conditions | Conditions |
| Oregon | 0.7 | Pause | Pause | Pause |
Pause and conditions are the sums of the ten states above (37.5 GW and 14.8 GW). The rest (43.7 GW) is in states JPMAM does not list, which does not mean it carries no local risk: ballot measures and county rules also apply.
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Michael Cembalest, Eye on the Market): Now You Can See Everything: on the midterms, AI, markets, the Theranos film and corporate fraud (4 Nov 2026, PDF) (opens in a new tab). The remainder is our subtraction. Accessed 9 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Part of the 2028 pipeline | GW |
|---|---|
| May be paused | 37.5 |
| May face conditions | 14.8 |
| Not in the ten states listed | 43.7 |
The fall was concentrated in the parts of the AI trade that depend most on new capacity and new financing, while the rest of the S&P 500 barely moved. These are basket moves as reported, not an index we calculate.
Source: Moneycontrol: US midterm backlash puts 37.5 GW of US AI data-centre capacity at risk (9 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 9 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Segment | Change (%) |
|---|---|
| Memory chip shares | -18.4 |
| Optical networking shares | -17.7 |
| AI chip shares | -16.6 |
| Neocloud shares | -13.8 |
| Data centre related shares | -13 |
| S&P 500 excluding AI stocks | -0.3 |
Key takeaways
- JPMAM estimates 37.5 GW of the 96 GW of US capacity expected in 2028 may be paused and another 15 GW may face conditions. Texas is 26.5 GW of the paused total.
- The 2027 pipeline (37 GW) is 75% under construction, so near-term deliveries are less exposed than orders for 2028.
- Conditions JPMAM lists: paying grid costs to protect other customers, ending tax incentives, water limits, onsite backup power, labour requirements, no non-disclosure agreements during permitting. Cembalest writes that most of these "seem sensible".
Our commentary (not advice): for cooling, power and construction suppliers, a pause shows up first as orders for 2028 projects being pushed back, not as cancellations of sites already being built. Conditions such as onsite backup power or water limits change what gets bought (more generators, more dry or closed-loop heat rejection) rather than whether it is bought. Watch new governors' first orders, state utility commission large-load rules and county moratoriums. Related: data centre policy tracker, US data centre power, US ballot measures on data centres, power, water and noise explained.
CoreWeave Q3 2026 earnings against guidance: revenue, capex, interest and power Filed Forecast
Not investment advice. Q3 2026 revenue, interest expense, adjusted operating income, power and backlog are from CoreWeave's results release of 10 November 2026. Q3 capex is CoreWeave's own capex measure, as stated by its chief financial officer on the 10 November call. The Q3 ranges are the guidance CoreWeave gave on 11 August 2026, and the full-year figures are its own guidance as given in August and November: company forecasts, not ours. Whether a result is above, within or below a range, and every percentage change, is our calculation.
CoreWeave rents out AI computing power built on NVIDIA chips and is one of the biggest single buyers of data centre capacity, power and cooling. Its third-quarter results, published after the US market close on 10 November, show how fast contracted capacity is being switched on and paid for. The charts set each reported figure against the range CoreWeave gave in August and against Q2.
Confirmed
US$3.66bn
Q3 2026 revenue, above the top of the range of US$3.45bn to US$3.6bn and up 168% on a year earlier (our calculation)
Confirmed
US$14.5bn
Q3 2026 capex (CoreWeave's measure), above the top of the range of US$11.5bn to US$13.5bn, with some Q4 deliveries brought forward
Confirmed
1.7 GW+
Active power at 30 September 2026, up from about 1.5 GW at 30 June, against more than 4.6 GW contracted
Confirmed
US$132.5bn
Revenue backlog at 30 Sept 2026, against about US$104bn at 30 Jun 2026
Sources: CoreWeave investor relations: CoreWeave Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (10 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab); CoreWeave investor relations: CoreWeave Reports Strong Second Quarter 2026 Results (11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Grey bars are Q2 and the August guidance range for Q3, the green bar is what CoreWeave reported. Hover or tap a bar for its value, or open the table. Revenue came in above the top of the range and capex above the top of the range. Capex is CoreWeave's own measure, the basis of its guidance. The cash paid for property and equipment in the Q3 cash flow statement was US$9.441bn, a different measure that we do not reconcile.
Sources: CoreWeave investor relations: CoreWeave Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (10 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab) (Q3 revenue, cash flow); The Motley Fool (transcript of CoreWeave's Q3 2026 call): CoreWeave (CRWV) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (10 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab) (Q3 capex); CoreWeave investor relations: CoreWeave Reports Strong Second Quarter 2026 Results (11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab) (Q2 revenue); Investing.com (transcript of CoreWeave's Q2 2026 call): Earnings call transcript: CoreWeave tops Q2 2026 estimates, shares jump 13.5% (11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab) (Q2 capex and Q3 guidance). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
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| Measure | Q2 2026 actual (US$bn) | Q3 guidance low (US$bn) | Q3 guidance high (US$bn) | Q3 2026 actual (US$bn) | Against the range (our comparison) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.575 | 3.45 | 3.6 | 3.661 | above the top of the range |
| Capex | 9.4 | 11.5 | 13.5 | 14.5 | above the top of the range |
Interest expense, net, was US$846m, below the bottom of the range, and adjusted operating income was US$379m, above the top of the range. Adjusted operating income is a non-GAAP measure that sits before interest, so this is a side-by-side, not a profit figure. GAAP net loss was US$709m against US$110m a year earlier.
Sources: CoreWeave investor relations: CoreWeave Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (10 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab) (Q3); CoreWeave investor relations: CoreWeave Reports Strong Second Quarter 2026 Results (11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab) (Q2); Investing.com (transcript of CoreWeave's Q2 2026 call): Earnings call transcript: CoreWeave tops Q2 2026 estimates, shares jump 13.5% (11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab) (Q3 guidance). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
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| Measure | Q2 2026 actual (US$m) | Q3 guidance low (US$m) | Q3 guidance high (US$m) | Q3 2026 actual (US$m) | Against the range (our comparison) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest expense | 640 | 860 | 940 | 846 | below the bottom of the range |
| Adjusted operating income | 128 | 200 | 260 | 379 | above the top of the range |
Each bar is the midpoint of a company guidance range (our calculation). Hover or tap a bar for the full ranges. CoreWeave raised its 2026 revenue, adjusted operating income and exit run-rate guidance on 10 November and raised the low end of its capex range. These are CoreWeave's forecasts, not ours.
Sources: Investing.com (transcript of CoreWeave's Q2 2026 call): Earnings call transcript: CoreWeave tops Q2 2026 estimates, shares jump 13.5% (11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab) (August guidance); CoreWeave investor relations: CoreWeave Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (10 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab) (November guidance). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
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| Measure | Guidance on 11 Aug 2026 | Guidance on 10 Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 revenue | US$12.4bn to US$13.2bn | US$13.0bn to US$13.3bn (raised) |
| 2026 adjusted operating income | US$960m to US$1.15bn | US$1.275bn to US$1.375bn (raised) |
| 2026 capex | US$35bn to US$39bn | US$37bn to US$39bn (low end raised) |
| Annualised revenue run rate at end 2026 | US$18.5bn to US$19.5bn | US$20bn to US$21bn (raised) |
| Q4 2026 interest expense | not given | US$1.05bn to US$1.15bn |
| Active power at end 2026 | more than 1.85 GW | more than 1.85 GW (unchanged) |
Revenue starts when a contracted cluster is switched on, which needs power. Active power is what is delivering revenue now, contracted power is signed but not yet all built. CoreWeave reports 'more than' 1.7 GW, 4.6 GW and 1.3 GW at 30 September, so those bars are floors. The end-2026 and 2030 figures are company targets. Hover or tap a bar for the type of figure.
Sources: CoreWeave investor relations: CoreWeave Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (10 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab); CoreWeave investor relations: CoreWeave Reports Strong Second Quarter 2026 Results (11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); Investing.com (transcript of CoreWeave's Q2 2026 call): Earnings call transcript: CoreWeave tops Q2 2026 estimates, shares jump 13.5% (11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
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| Measure | Gigawatts | Type of figure |
|---|---|---|
| Active, 30 Jun 2026 | 1.5 | Reported |
| Active, 30 Sep 2026 | 1.7 | Reported (more than) |
| Active target, end 2026 | 1.85 | Company target (more than), kept in November |
| Contracted, 30 Jun 2026 | 3.7 | Reported |
| Contracted, 30 Sep 2026 | 4.6 | Reported (more than) |
| Contracted outside US, 30 Sep | 1.3 | Reported (more than), includes India, Indonesia and Spain |
| Active goal, 2030 | 8 | Company goal (at least), given in August |
| Measure | 11 Aug 2026 | 10 Nov 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 revenue | US$12.4bn to US$13.2bn | US$13.0bn to US$13.3bn (raised) |
| 2026 adjusted operating income | US$960m to US$1.15bn | US$1.275bn to US$1.375bn (raised) |
| 2026 capex | US$35bn to US$39bn | US$37bn to US$39bn (low end raised) |
| Annualised revenue run rate at end 2026 | US$18.5bn to US$19.5bn | US$20bn to US$21bn (raised) |
| Q4 2026 interest expense | not given | US$1.05bn to US$1.15bn |
| Active power at end 2026 | more than 1.85 GW | more than 1.85 GW (unchanged) |
Sources: Investing.com (transcript of CoreWeave's Q2 2026 call): Earnings call transcript: CoreWeave tops Q2 2026 estimates, shares jump 13.5% (11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); CoreWeave investor relations: CoreWeave Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (10 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab). Results date: CoreWeave investor relations: CoreWeave Announces Date of Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Conference Call (27 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab).
Key takeaways
- Q3 revenue of US$3.661bn beat the top of CoreWeave's own range (US$3.6bn), and adjusted operating income of US$379m beat the top of its range (US$260m).
- Capex of US$14.5bn ran above the top of the US$11.5bn to US$13.5bn range because some Q4 deliveries came early, and construction in progress fell to US$9.3bn from US$11.9bn, as stated on the call.
- Interest expense of US$846m came in just below the guided range, but CoreWeave expects US$1.05bn to US$1.15bn in Q4, still well above Q3 adjusted operating income (our comparison of different measures).
- More than 200 MW of active power was added in the quarter to more than 1.7 GW, while contracted power rose by more than 900 MW to more than 4.6 GW, so the gap still to build widened. More than 1.3 GW of contracted power is outside the US, including India, Indonesia and Spain.
- On the call CoreWeave put new four to five year contracts at US$20m to US$25m of annual revenue per MW and short contracts at about US$40m, its weighted average cost of debt at 7.9%, and said it expects about US$9bn of customer prepayments and deposits in the next three months.
Sources: CoreWeave investor relations: CoreWeave Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results (10 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab); The Motley Fool (transcript of CoreWeave's Q3 2026 call): CoreWeave (CRWV) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (10 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab).
Our commentary (not advice): for cooling, power and construction suppliers the useful numbers are capex running ahead of plan and contracted power growing faster than active power: equipment is being installed early, and the queue of sites still to fit out got longer, not shorter. More than a quarter of contracted power is now outside the US. The financing signals are mixed: interest is still rising each quarter, while CoreWeave says it is leaning more on customer prepayments and secured loans tied to contracts than on unsecured bonds. Related: Oracle and CoreWeave capex, debt and backlog, bitcoin miners' AI pivot, hyperscaler free cash flow, direct liquid cooling.
Nebius Nebius Q3 2026 earnings preview: what Nebius guided, what analysts expect and who pays for the build-out Filed Forecast
Not investment advice. Revenue, ARR, cash, debt, deferred revenue and cash capex are from Nebius's results releases and shareholder letters. The 2026 ranges are Nebius's own guidance as stated on its earnings calls, and the Q3 2026 revenue bar is the Zacks consensus estimate published on 9 November 2026: both are forecasts, not results. Q3 2025 revenue, the sums and the revenue still needed in the second half are our calculation. Nebius reports before the US market opens on 12 November 2026 and this block will be updated with the actual figures. We do not set price targets or rate the shares.
Nebius, listed on Nasdaq and based in Amsterdam, rents out NVIDIA GPU capacity from its own and leased data centres in Europe, the US and Israel, and is building gigawatt-scale sites in Missouri and Pennsylvania. It is one of the 'neoclouds' whose results show whether contracted AI capacity is turning into revenue, and how much of the cost of building it customers pay up front. The charts set what Nebius has reported against what it has promised for 2026.
Confirmed
US$3.0bn
annualised run-rate revenue (ARR) at 30 June 2026, up from US$1.25bn at the end of 2025; guidance is US$7bn to US$9bn by the end of 2026 (company forecast)
Sources: Nebius Group (results release): Nebius reports second quarter 2026 financial results (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab); The Motley Fool (call transcript): Nebius (NBIS) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
US$981.3m
revenue in the first half of 2026. Full-year guidance of US$3bn to US$3.4bn needs US$2.02bn to US$2.42bn in the second half (our calculation)
Sources: Nebius Group (results release): Nebius reports second quarter 2026 financial results (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab); The Motley Fool (call transcript): Nebius (NBIS) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
US$8.13bn
paid for equipment and data centres in the first half (cash flow), against 2026 capex guidance of US$20bn to US$25bn
Sources: Nebius Group (results release): Nebius reports second quarter 2026 financial results (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab); The Motley Fool (call transcript): Nebius (NBIS) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Projected
5 GW
of contracted power targeted by the end of 2026 (company target, land and power secured), with 800 MW to 1 GW by the end of 2026 of connected power
Sources: Nebius Group (SEC Form 6-K, exhibit 99.2): Letter to shareholders, Q2 2026 (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab); The Motley Fool (call transcript): Nebius (NBIS) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Solid bars are reported revenue; the dashed bar is the Zacks consensus estimate of US$916.78m published on 9 Nov 2026, an analyst forecast, not a Nebius figure. Q3 2025 is our calculation from the full-year 2025 total. Nebius gave no guidance for Q3 alone. Tap or hover a bar for its basis.
Sources: Nebius Group (results release): Nebius reports second quarter 2026 financial results (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab); Nebius Group: Letter to shareholders, Q1 2026 (13 May 2026) (opens in a new tab); Nebius Group: Letter to shareholders, Q4 2025 (12 February 2026) (opens in a new tab); Zacks Investment Research (via Yahoo Finance): Nebius Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell? (9 November 2026) (opens in a new tab) (forecast). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
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| Quarter | Group revenue (US$m) | Type of figure |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 50.9 | reported (year-earlier column) |
| Q2 2025 | 105.1 | reported (year-earlier column) |
| Q3 2025 | 146.1 | our calculation: full-year 2025 US$529.8m minus first half US$156.0m and Q4 US$227.7m |
| Q4 2025 | 227.7 | reported |
| Q1 2026 | 399 | reported |
| Q2 2026 | 582.3 | reported |
| Q3 2026 | 916.78 | forecast: Zacks consensus estimate published 9 November 2026, not a Nebius figure |
Nebius calculates ARR as AI cloud revenue in the last month of the quarter times 12. The dashed bar is the low end of its US$7bn to US$9bn guidance for the end of 2026, reaffirmed on 12 August; it is a company forecast. Reaching it means more than doubling ARR in six months, from capacity that Nebius says takes several months to turn into revenue after it is connected.
Sources: Nebius Group: Letter to shareholders, Q4 2025 (12 February 2026) (opens in a new tab); Nebius Group: Letter to shareholders, Q1 2026 (13 May 2026) (opens in a new tab); Nebius Group (results release): Nebius reports second quarter 2026 financial results (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab); The Motley Fool (call transcript): Nebius (NBIS) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab) (guidance). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
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| Date | ARR (US$bn) | Type of figure |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2025 | 0.551 | reported |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 1.25 | reported |
| 31 Mar 2026 | 1.92 | reported |
| 30 Jun 2026 | 3 | reported |
| 31 Dec 2026 target (low end) | 7 | company guidance of US$7bn to US$9bn, reaffirmed 12 August 2026 |
The first three bars are Nebius's own guidance ranges for 2026; the last is cash paid for property, equipment and intangible assets in January to June from the cash flow statement, a different measure from Nebius's own capex figure (about US$2.5bn in Q1 and about US$5.7bn in Q2, as stated in its letters). Nebius raised the range in May to build capacity for 2027 and reaffirmed it in August. Tap or hover a bar for its basis.
Sources: The Motley Fool (call transcript): Nebius (NBIS) Q1 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 13 May 2026) (opens in a new tab); The Motley Fool (call transcript): Nebius (NBIS) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab); Nebius Group (results release): Nebius reports second quarter 2026 financial results (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab); Nebius Group (SEC Form 6-K, exhibit 99.2): Letter to shareholders, Q2 2026 (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
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| Measure | Low (US$bn) | High (US$bn) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capex guidance, 12 Feb 2026 | 16 | 20 | Prior range, as stated on the 13 May 2026 call |
| Capex guidance, 13 May 2026 (raised) | 20 | 25 | Raised for 2027 capacity coming online early next year |
| Capex guidance, 12 Aug 2026 (reaffirmed) | 20 | 25 | Reaffirmed on the Q2 call |
| Paid in H1 2026 (cash flow) | 8.13 | 8.13 | Purchases of property and equipment and intangible assets, first half, from the cash flow statement: US$8,130.3m. Nebius's own capex measure was about US$2.5bn in Q1 and about US$5.7bn in Q2 |
Deferred revenue is mostly customer prepayments: Nebius says about 70% of the deals it closed in Q2 included a prepayment covering 50% to 60% of the related capex, and it expects more than US$9bn of prepayments in 2026. Debt and deferred revenue each add the current and non-current lines (our calculation). Since 30 June Nebius has raised or arranged about US$10.0bn more (our sum of the table below; the Citi facility is a 364-day facility, not necessarily drawn).
Sources: Nebius Group (results release): Nebius reports second quarter 2026 financial results (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab) (balance sheets); Nebius Group (SEC Form 6-K, exhibit 99.2): Letter to shareholders, Q2 2026 (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab) (prepayments). Accessed 11 Nov 2026.
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| Measure | 31 Dec 2025 (US$m) | 30 Jun 2026 (US$m) |
|---|---|---|
| Cash and cash equivalents | 3,678.1 | 8,042.1 |
| Debt (current plus non-current) | 4,127.7 | 8,545.7 |
| Deferred revenue (customer prepayments, current plus non-current) | 1,577.5 | 5,975.2 |
| Date | What | Amount | Terms |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | First secured debt facility, backed by deployed GPUs and an investment-grade customer contract (Nebius Group (SEC Form 6-K, exhibit 99.2): Letter to shareholders, Q2 2026 (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab)) | US$0.775bn | SOFR plus 2.50% |
| 24 Aug 2026 | Convertible senior notes closed: US$3.45bn of 0.50% notes due 2030 and US$2.3bn of 4.50% notes due 2034 (Nebius Group (newsroom): Closing of private offering of convertible senior notes, gross proceeds of about US$5.75 billion (24 August 2026) (opens in a new tab)) | US$5.75bn | 0.50% and 4.50% coupons |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Senior secured facility from Citi for data centre development and GPU procurement (Nebius Group (newsroom): Nebius secures US$3.5 billion financing facility with Citi (22 October 2026) (opens in a new tab)) | US$3.5bn | 364-day maturity, Term SOFR plus 2.75% rising to at most 3.50% |
What to watch on 12 November
- Revenue against the Zacks consensus of about US$917m (analyst forecast, 9 November), and whether Nebius keeps its US$3bn to US$3.4bn full-year range, which needs at least US$2.02bn in the second half (our calculation) (Zacks Investment Research (via Yahoo Finance): Nebius Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell? (9 November 2026) (opens in a new tab); The Motley Fool (call transcript): Nebius (NBIS) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
- ARR against the US$7bn to US$9bn year-end target, from US$3bn at 30 June. Nebius said capacity deployed late in Q2 would start to contribute in Q3, and that most of the deals signed in Q2, at more than US$20m of annual revenue per MW, are for capacity arriving in late 2026 and will mainly add to 2027 revenue (The Motley Fool (call transcript): Nebius (NBIS) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab); Nebius Group (SEC Form 6-K, exhibit 99.2): Letter to shareholders, Q2 2026 (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
- Connected power against 800 MW to 1 GW by the end of 2026, and progress at Vineland, New Jersey, where Nebius switched to Bloom Energy fuel cells and a public hearing on the amended site plan adjourned without a vote before the August call (The Motley Fool (call transcript): Nebius (NBIS) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
- Microsoft: Nebius said in August it had delivered all capacity tranches due under its Microsoft contract so far. CNBC reported on 6 November, citing unnamed sources, that Microsoft plans to work with fewer neoclouds and has not decided which; Microsoft said its strategy is 'built on flexibility and choice' (Nebius Group (SEC Form 6-K, exhibit 99.2): Letter to shareholders, Q2 2026 (12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab); CNBC: Microsoft plans to use fewer neoclouds as AI buildout shows signs of strain (6 November 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
- Funding: the quarter's capex against cash, how much came from prepayments, the ATM share programme (US$2.8bn raised in Q2) and the convertibles and Citi facility since June, and any first guidance for 2027, which Nebius said it would give later in the year (The Motley Fool (call transcript): Nebius (NBIS) Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (call of 12 August 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
Our commentary (not advice): for cooling, power and construction suppliers, Nebius's capex range is the order book signal: Nebius says the money goes mainly on GPUs and related hardware and on data centre expansion, and the May increase was to build capacity for 2027, so halls and plant for that capacity are being bought now. Customer prepayments covering half or more of the capex make those projects less dependent on debt markets, but the gap between connected power and revenue is several months, so any slip in fit-out or commissioning shows up in ARR. For operators and procurement teams, Nebius's own price points (more than US$20m of annual revenue per MW for one to three year contracts, US$40m to US$50m for short ones) show what scarce capacity earns. Related: CoreWeave Q3 against guidance, AI clouds on borrowed money, miners' AI pivot.
Big Tech bond issuance for AI: debt, borrowing and what they pay Filed
Not investment advice. Debt, borrowing and capex are from each company's 10-Q and 10-K on SEC EDGAR. Bond amounts, coupons and maturities are from each issuer's pricing term sheet or prospectus supplement. Shares of capex, sums and changes are our calculation. A coupon is the interest rate fixed at issue, not today's market yield. We do not rate the bonds or the shares.
In the first nine months of 2025 Amazon borrowed US$0.7bn and Meta nothing, according to their cash flow statements. In the same months of 2026 Amazon, Alphabet and Meta between them borrowed about US$225bn, and in the six days from 29 October to 3 November Microsoft, Oracle, Meta and Alphabet priced another US$50bn of dollar bonds and €6bn of euro bonds (our sums of the term sheets). These charts show how fast the debt has grown, how much of the building it pays for and what each company pays to borrow.
Key takeaways
- Long-term debt at Amazon, Alphabet and Meta rose by about US$291bn in seven quarters, from US$11.9bn (Alphabet), US$57.6bn (Amazon), US$28.8bn (Meta) at the end of 2024 (our calculation).
- New borrowing matched about 66% of Amazon's capex and 65% of Alphabet's in the first nine months of 2026, against 1% and 60% a year earlier.
- Microsoft's debt fell to US$35.5bn by 30 September 2026 and its cash flow statement shows no new long-term borrowing in fiscal 2026, before its US$25bn bond on 29 October.
- For 10-year money, Microsoft's coupon is 5.55%, Meta's 6.55% and Oracle's 8.000% (its 2037 notes), so the market charges Oracle much more to borrow.
Microsoft · US$25bn · 29 Oct 2026Oracle · US$10bn · 2 Nov 2026Meta · US$15bn · 3 Nov 2026Alphabet · €6bn · 2 Nov 2026
Confirmed
US$50bn
of dollar bonds priced by Microsoft, Meta and Oracle between 29 October and 3 November 2026, plus Alphabet's €6bn (our sum of the term sheets)
Sources: Microsoft via SEC EDGAR: Prospectus supplement for US$25bn of notes, dated 29 Oct 2026 (424B2) (opens in a new tab); Oracle via SEC EDGAR: Prospectus supplement for US$10bn of notes, filed 4 Nov 2026 (424B2) (opens in a new tab); Meta via SEC EDGAR: Pricing term sheet for US$15bn of senior notes, trade date 3 Nov 2026 (FWP) (opens in a new tab); Alphabet via SEC EDGAR: Pricing term sheet for €6bn of notes, trade date 2 Nov 2026 (FWP) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
US$115.1bn
Amazon's new long-term borrowing in the first nine months of 2026, against US$0.7bn a year earlier
Confirmed
US$126.1bn
Alphabet long-term debt at 30 September 2026, about 10.6 times the level at the end of 2024 (our calculation)
Confirmed
2,066
Maturity year of Microsoft's longest new notes (6.350% coupon), 40 years after issue
Carrying value of current plus non-current long-term debt as filed, excluding leases and commercial paper. Microsoft (dashed) has a June fiscal year, but its balance sheet dates are the same calendar quarter ends. Click a name in the legend to hide or show it, and hover or tap a quarter for the basis.
Sources: Alphabet via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (filed 29 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); Amazon via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (filed 30 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); Meta via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (filed 22 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); Microsoft via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (filed 28 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); earlier quarters from SEC EDGAR: XBRL company facts API (quarter-end long-term debt as tagged in each 10-Q and 10-K) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 4 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Quarter end | Alphabet (US$m) | Amazon (US$m) | Meta (US$m) | Microsoft (US$m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2024 | 11,882 | 57,640 | 28,826 | 44,970 |
| 31 Mar 2025 | 11,886 | 58,388 | 28,829 | 42,881 |
| 30 Jun 2025 | 24,607 | 55,723 | 28,832 | 43,151 |
| 30 Sept 2025 | 23,602 | 54,739 | 28,834 | 43,208 |
| 31 Dec 2025 | 48,543 | 68,396 | 58,744 | 40,262 |
| 31 Mar 2026 | 79,499 | 121,906 | 58,748 | 40,262 |
| 30 Jun 2026 | 100,164 | 132,224 | 83,664 | 40,294 |
| 30 Sept 2026 | 126,118 | 179,952 | 83,669 | 35,481 |
Capex is purchases of property and equipment from each cash flow statement. Borrowing is gross new debt as filed, before repayments, and each company names the line differently (see the table). Money is fungible, so this does not show which bond paid for which building, only the scale of borrowing next to spending.
Sources: Alphabet via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (filed 29 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); Amazon via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (filed 30 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); Meta via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (filed 22 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 4 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Capex 9M 2025 (US$m) | Capex 9M 2026 (US$m) | New borrowing 9M 2025 (US$m) | New borrowing 9M 2026 (US$m) | Repayments 9M 2026 (US$m) | Borrowing as % of capex 9M 2026, our calculation | Cash flow line used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | 63,596 | 131,953 | 38,002 | 85,222 | 8,879 | 65% | Proceeds from issuance of debt, net of costs (includes commercial paper) |
| Amazon | 92,297 | 175,670 | 746 | 115,100 | 2,759 | 66% | Proceeds from long-term debt |
| Meta | 48,308 | 83,055 | 0 | 24,910 | 0 | 30% | Proceeds from issuance of long-term debt |
Each dot is one fixed-rate tranche, sized by the amount sold. Floating rate notes are left out because they have no fixed coupon. Alphabet's line (dashed) is in euros, where base interest rates are lower, so compare its shape rather than its level with the dollar lines. Click a name in the legend to hide or show it.
Sources: Microsoft via SEC EDGAR: Prospectus supplement for US$25bn of notes, dated 29 Oct 2026 (424B2) (opens in a new tab); Microsoft via SEC EDGAR: Pricing term sheet, trade date 29 Oct 2026 (FWP) (opens in a new tab); Oracle via SEC EDGAR: Prospectus supplement for US$10bn of notes, filed 4 Nov 2026 (424B2) (opens in a new tab); Meta via SEC EDGAR: Pricing term sheet for US$15bn of senior notes, trade date 3 Nov 2026 (FWP) (opens in a new tab); Alphabet via SEC EDGAR: Pricing term sheet for €6bn of notes, trade date 2 Nov 2026 (FWP) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 4 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Issuer | Priced | Total | Fixed-rate tranches (maturity, coupon, amount in millions) | Also | Ratings in the term sheet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | 29 Oct 2026 | US$25bn | 2028: 4.850%, 2,000 · 2029: 5.000%, 3,250 · 2031: 5.200%, 3,250 · 2033: 5.350%, 2,500 · 2036: 5.550%, 4,000 · 2046: 6.150%, 2,000 · 2056: 6.250%, 4,000 · 2066: 6.350%, 2,000 | plus US$1bn of floating rate notes due 2028 and US$1bn due 2029 | Aaa (Moody's), AAA (S&P), as stated in the term sheet |
| Oracle | 2 Nov 2026 | US$10bn | 2029: 7.000%, 2,000 · 2031: 7.450%, 1,750 · 2033: 7.850%, 2,250 · 2037: 8.000%, 2,500 · 2046: 8.650%, 1,500 | alongside a concurrent offering of 86,206,897 new shares | Not stated |
| Meta | 3 Nov 2026 | US$15bn | 2031: 5.850%, 3,250 · 2033: 6.250%, 3,250 · 2036: 6.550%, 4,000 · 2046: 7.350%, 1,750 · 2056: 7.500%, 2,750 | a euro offering in six tranches was launched on 4 November and had not been priced when we checked | Aa3 stable (Moody's), AA- negative (S&P), as stated in the term sheet |
| Alphabet | 2 Nov 2026 | €6bn | 2028: 3.700%, 750 · 2030: 4.050%, 1,250 · 2032: 4.250%, 750 · 2035: 4.500%, 750 · 2039: 4.875%, 750 · 2045: 5.250%, 1,000 | plus €750m of floating rate notes due 2028; euro coupons are not comparable with dollar coupons because base interest rates differ | Not stated |
Also in the filings: Oracle sold its US$10bn of notes alongside 86,206,897 new shares (Oracle via SEC EDGAR: Prospectus supplement for 86,206,897 shares of common stock, filed 4 Nov 2026 (424B5) (opens in a new tab)), and its own debt, capex and backlog are tracked in AI clouds on borrowed money. Meta launched its first euro bonds on 4 November in six tranches, with amounts not yet filled in when we checked (Meta via SEC EDGAR: Preliminary prospectus supplement for euro senior notes, 4 Nov 2026 (424B5, amounts not yet completed) (opens in a new tab)). Bloomberg reports that Microsoft's bond was its first US offering since 2017 (Bloomberg Law: Oracle Raises $20 Billion for AI Growth as Meta Weighs New Debt (Microsoft's first US offering since 2017, as reported) (opens in a new tab), reported).
Our commentary (not advice): the filings show the largest AI spenders moving from paying for data centres out of cash flow to borrowing for a large part of it, and paying higher coupons on long-dated money than on short. For suppliers of cooling, power and construction, order books now depend partly on bond markets staying open to these buyers, not only on their cash flow. Signs to watch are the next 10-Q filings (debt and interest cost), the pricing of Meta's euro bonds and whether coupons on new deals keep rising. Related: is capex bigger than their cash flow?, Oracle and CoreWeave debt and backlog, hyperscaler capex 2026.
Chip makers: NVIDIA vs AMD vs Broadcom revenue, gross margin and data centre sales by quarter Filed
Not investment advice. Revenue, gross profit and operating income are GAAP figures from each company's 10-Q and 10-K on SEC EDGAR. Fourth fiscal quarters are not filed on their own, so they are our calculation (full year less nine months), and so are all margins and shares. Guidance is each company's own forecast with its date, not ours. We do not rate the shares.
Key takeaways
- NVIDIA's revenue roughly doubled in a year, from US$46.7bn to US$96.2bn a quarter, and 92% of it now comes from data centres.
- Broadcom's AI chip revenue (US$16.7bn, up 221%) grew fastest of the three measures. Broadcom attributes the demand to custom AI accelerators and networking.
- AMD's data centre revenue more than doubled to US$6.7bn, but its gross margin (53.8%) is far below NVIDIA's (75.0%).
These three companies design many of the chips going into AI data centres: GPUs from NVIDIA and AMD, and custom accelerators and network chips from Broadcom. Every chip they sell has to be installed in a rack with power and cooling, so their results are a useful read-across for data centre builders and suppliers. See how chip power drives rack density and cooling.
NVIDIAAMDBroadcom
Confirmed
US$89.0bn
NVIDIA data center segment revenue, Q2 FY27, up 117% on a year earlier
Confirmed
US$6.7bn
AMD data center segment revenue, Q2 2026, up 107% on a year earlier
Confirmed
US$16.7bn
Broadcom ai semiconductor revenue (company measure), Q3 FY26, up 221% on a year earlier
Confirmed
75.0%
NVIDIA GAAP gross margin, Q2 FY27, against 72.4% a year earlier
Each company's fiscal quarter is placed under the calendar quarter it mostly covers (our alignment), and the tooltip shows the exact fiscal quarter. NVIDIA's fiscal year ends in late January, so Q2 FY27 is 27 April to 26 July 2026. AMD's fiscal year follows the calendar year. Broadcom's fiscal year ends in early November, so Q3 FY26 is 4 May to 2 August 2026. Fourth fiscal quarters are our calculation from the 10-K. Hover or tap a quarter for details.
Sources: NVIDIA via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 July 2026 (filed 26 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); NVIDIA via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 October 2025 (filed 19 Nov 2025) (opens in a new tab); NVIDIA via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-K for the year ended 25 January 2026 (filed 25 Feb 2026) (opens in a new tab); NVIDIA via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 April 2026 (filed 20 May 2026) (opens in a new tab); AMD via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 June 2026 (filed 5 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); AMD via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 27 September 2025 (filed 5 Nov 2025) (opens in a new tab); AMD via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-K for the year ended 27 December 2025 (filed 4 Feb 2026) (opens in a new tab); AMD via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 28 March 2026 (filed 6 May 2026) (opens in a new tab); Broadcom via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 August 2026 (filed 10 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab); Broadcom via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-K for the year ended 2 November 2025 (filed 18 Dec 2025) (opens in a new tab); Broadcom via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 1 February 2026 (filed 11 Mar 2026) (opens in a new tab); Broadcom via SEC EDGAR: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 3 May 2026 (filed 9 Jun 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 4 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company and fiscal quarter | Calendar quarter (our alignment) | Revenue (US$m) | Gross profit (US$m) | Operating income (US$m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Q2 FY26 (28 Apr to 27 Jul 2025) | Q2 2025 | 46,743 | 33,853 | 28,440 |
| NVIDIA Q3 FY26 (28 Jul to 26 Oct 2025) | Q3 2025 | 57,006 | 41,849 | 36,010 |
| NVIDIA Q4 FY26 (27 Oct 2025 to 25 Jan 2026), our calculation | Q4 2025 | 68,127 | 51,093 | 44,299 |
| NVIDIA Q1 FY27 (26 Jan to 26 Apr 2026) | Q1 2026 | 81,615 | 61,157 | 53,536 |
| NVIDIA Q2 FY27 (27 Apr to 26 Jul 2026) | Q2 2026 | 96,221 | 72,142 | 63,734 |
| AMD Q2 2025 (to 28 Jun 2025) | Q2 2025 | 7,685 | 3,059 | -134 |
| AMD Q3 2025 (to 27 Sep 2025) | Q3 2025 | 9,246 | 4,780 | 1,270 |
| AMD Q4 2025 (to 27 Dec 2025), our calculation | Q4 2025 | 10,270 | 5,577 | 1,752 |
| AMD Q1 2026 (to 28 Mar 2026) | Q1 2026 | 10,253 | 5,416 | 1,476 |
| AMD Q2 2026 (to 27 Jun 2026) | Q2 2026 | 11,536 | 6,203 | 1,990 |
| Broadcom Q3 FY25 (5 May to 3 Aug 2025) | Q2 2025 | 15,952 | 10,703 | 5,887 |
| Broadcom Q4 FY25 (4 Aug to 2 Nov 2025), our calculation | Q3 2025 | 18,015 | 12,249 | 7,508 |
| Broadcom Q1 FY26 (3 Nov 2025 to 1 Feb 2026) | Q4 2025 | 19,311 | 13,157 | 8,563 |
| Broadcom Q2 FY26 (2 Feb to 3 May 2026) | Q1 2026 | 22,187 | 15,415 | 10,788 |
| Broadcom Q3 FY26 (4 May to 2 Aug 2026) | Q2 2026 | 29,591 | 20,456 | 15,955 |
Gross margin is revenue less the cost of making and delivering the products, as a share of revenue (our calculation from filed figures). A percentage, so it has its own chart. Q2 2025 includes about US$800m of inventory and related charges for Instinct MI308 GPUs after US export controls, as stated by AMD. The tooltip also shows operating margin.
Sources: the same 10-Q and 10-K filings as the revenue chart above. Accessed 4 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company and fiscal quarter | Gross margin, our calculation (%) | Operating margin, our calculation (%) |
|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Q2 FY26 (28 Apr to 27 Jul 2025) | 72.4 | 60.8 |
| NVIDIA Q3 FY26 (28 Jul to 26 Oct 2025) | 73.4 | 63.2 |
| NVIDIA Q4 FY26 (27 Oct 2025 to 25 Jan 2026) | 75 | 65 |
| NVIDIA Q1 FY27 (26 Jan to 26 Apr 2026) | 74.9 | 65.6 |
| NVIDIA Q2 FY27 (27 Apr to 26 Jul 2026) | 75 | 66.2 |
| AMD Q2 2025 (to 28 Jun 2025) | 39.8 | -1.7 |
| AMD Q3 2025 (to 27 Sep 2025) | 51.7 | 13.7 |
| AMD Q4 2025 (to 27 Dec 2025) | 54.3 | 17.1 |
| AMD Q1 2026 (to 28 Mar 2026) | 52.8 | 14.4 |
| AMD Q2 2026 (to 27 Jun 2026) | 53.8 | 17.3 |
| Broadcom Q3 FY25 (5 May to 3 Aug 2025) | 67.1 | 36.9 |
| Broadcom Q4 FY25 (4 Aug to 2 Nov 2025) | 68 | 41.7 |
| Broadcom Q1 FY26 (3 Nov 2025 to 1 Feb 2026) | 68.1 | 44.3 |
| Broadcom Q2 FY26 (2 Feb to 3 May 2026) | 69.5 | 48.6 |
| Broadcom Q3 FY26 (4 May to 2 Aug 2026) | 69.1 | 53.9 |
Each company measures this differently: NVIDIA and AMD report a Data Center segment, while Broadcom reports AI semiconductor revenue, a company measure inside its semiconductor segment. So the bars show each company's own split, not a like-for-like market share.
Sources: NVIDIA via SEC EDGAR: NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 26 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); AMD via SEC EDGAR: AMD Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 4 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); Broadcom via SEC EDGAR: Broadcom Inc. Announces Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results and Quarterly Dividend (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 4 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Quarter | Measure | Data centre or AI revenue (US$m) | Total revenue (US$m) | Share, our calculation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA | Q2 FY27 (27 Apr to 26 Jul 2026) | Data Center segment revenue | 89,000 | 96,221 | 92 |
| AMD | Q2 2026 (to 27 Jun 2026) | Data Center segment revenue | 6,700 | 11,536 | 58 |
| Broadcom | Q3 FY26 (4 May to 2 Aug 2026) | AI semiconductor revenue (company measure) | 16,700 | 29,591 | 56 |
Ranges are the companies' own forecasts, given with their last results: NVIDIA for Q3 FY27 (to late October 2026), AMD for Q4 2026 (to late December 2026), Broadcom for Q4 FY26 (to 1 November 2026). Broadcom gave a single figure. Exact wording is in the table. These are not CoolPower Index forecasts.
Sources: NVIDIA via SEC EDGAR: NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 26 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); AMD Investor Relations: AMD Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (press release, 3 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab); Broadcom via SEC EDGAR: Broadcom Inc. Announces Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results and Quarterly Dividend (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 4 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Quarter | Company guidance |
|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA | Q3 FY27 (to late October 2026) | Revenue of US$108.0bn, plus or minus 2%, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points. NVIDIA assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China. |
| AMD | Q4 2026 (to late December 2026) | Revenue of about US$17bn, plus or minus 3%, and non-GAAP gross margin of about 55% (given 3 Nov 2026 with Q3 results). The range in the chart is our arithmetic on AMD's plus or minus 3%. |
| Broadcom | Q4 FY26 (to 1 November 2026) | Revenue of about US$34.8bn and AI semiconductor revenue of about US$21.7bn, with non-GAAP operating income of about 66% of revenue. |
Just reported: AMD Q3 2026, data centre sales nearly double Filed
Not investment advice. Figures from AMD's Q3 2026 earnings release and slides filed on 3 November 2026 (GAAP, US$). Segment margins and the guidance check are our calculation. Guidance is AMD's own forecast, not ours.
Confirmed
US$8.5bn
Data Center segment revenue, Q3 2026, up 97% on a year earlier
Confirmed
64%
of AMD's revenue came from data centres in Q3 2026, against 47% a year earlier (our calculation)
Confirmed
33.7%
Data Center operating margin, against 24.7% a year earlier (our calculation from segment figures)
Projected
US$17.0bn
Q4 2026 revenue guidance midpoint, plus or minus 3% (AMD forecast, not ours)
Bars show each segment a year apart and a quarter apart. Client and Gaming are one reporting segment at AMD and are shown as its two disclosed businesses. Tap or hover a segment for year-on-year change and operating margin (our calculation).
Sources: AMD Investor Relations: AMD Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (press release, 3 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab); AMD via SEC EDGAR: AMD Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (8-K, 3 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab); AMD via SEC EDGAR: Q3 2026 financial results slides (8-K Exhibit 99.2, 3 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab). Published 3 November 2026, accessed 4 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Segment or business | Q3 2025 revenue (US$m) | Q2 2026 revenue (US$m) | Q3 2026 revenue (US$m) | Year-on-year change, our calculation (%) | Operating margin Q3 2026, our calculation (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | 4,341 | 6,718 | 8,546 | 97 | 33.7 |
| Client | 2,750 | 3,062 | 2,949 | 7 | reported with Gaming |
| Gaming | 1,298 | 779 | 773 | -40 | reported with Gaming |
| Embedded | 857 | 977 | 1,109 | 29 | 40.8 |
| Total | 9,246 | 11,536 | 13,377 | 45 | 21.2 |
Q3 guidance was given on 4 August 2026 and Q4 guidance on 3 November 2026, both AMD forecasts. The middle bar is reported Q3 2026 revenue, drawn in the same style only so the three sit on one scale. These are not CoolPower Index forecasts.
Sources: AMD via SEC EDGAR: AMD Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 4 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); AMD Investor Relations: AMD Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (press release, 3 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 4 Nov 2026.
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| Item | Low (US$m) | High (US$m) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 guidance, given 4 Aug 2026 | 12,700 | 13,300 | AMD forecast |
| Q3 2026 reported revenue | 13,377 | 13,377 | Filed 3 Nov 2026 |
| Q4 2026 guidance, given 3 Nov 2026 | 16,490 | 17,510 | AMD forecast (about US$17bn plus or minus 3%, range our arithmetic) |
Below the headline (from the release): GAAP net income included a US$1.1bn charge for the change in fair value of warrants AMD issued to certain customers, which AMD says moves with its share price and does not affect non-GAAP results or free cash flow. Free cash flow was US$0.6bn, against US$1.5bn a year earlier, and total debt rose to US$7.1bn from US$3.2bn at the end of June. AMD says Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure are running workloads on its first Helios rack-scale systems with Instinct MI450 GPUs. AMD's Q3 2026 quarter is not yet in the five-quarter charts above, which stop at calendar Q2 2026 so all three companies line up; it will move in when NVIDIA and Broadcom have also reported the same calendar quarter. The buyers' side: hyperscaler capex 2026 by quarter.
Our commentary (not advice): chips sold have to be installed in racks with power and cooling, so these results matter beyond the chip industry. All three companies guided higher for the next quarter. NVIDIA keeps about three quarters of each sales dollar as gross profit, against just over half at AMD, and Broadcom attributes its growth to custom AI accelerators and networking. For cooling and power suppliers the mix matters, because the newest rack-scale systems from NVIDIA (GB300 NVL72) and AMD (MI455X) are specified for liquid cooling, while custom accelerators follow each buyer's own rack design. Dates to watch: NVIDIA: NVIDIA reports Q3 FY27 on 17 November 2026 (opens in a new tab). Related: TSMC vs SK hynix vs Micron (memory and foundry), AI clouds on borrowed money, hyperscaler free cash flow, Rubin shipping specifications, NVIDIA Kyber explained.
AI servers and switches: Supermicro and Arista earnings, Q3 2026 Filed
Not investment advice. Figures from each company's results release of 3 November 2026 for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (US$, GAAP unless stated). Supermicro calls its figures preliminary and unaudited. Margins, growth rates and the cash bridge sums are our calculation. Guidance and targets are each company's own, not ours. We do not rate the shares.
Key takeaways
- Supermicro's sales rose about 298% in a year to US$19.9bn, more than five times Arista's US$3.7bn. Arista grew 58.5%, which it calls its fastest since its IPO.
- The two earn very different margins: Supermicro kept 10.4% of sales as operating income, Arista 44.9% (our calculation).
- Supermicro's record profit did not turn into cash this quarter: money owed by customers and inventory grew by about US$6.0bn, so operating cash flow was minus US$0.4bn even after US$3.1bn of customer prepayments (deferred revenue).
Every AI rack needs servers to hold the chips and switches to connect them. Supermicro builds the servers and complete racks, many of them liquid cooled, and Arista sells the Ethernet switches that join GPUs into clusters. Both report the same calendar quarter, so their results are a direct read on how fast AI clusters are being built, one step after the chip makers and one step before the power and cooling suppliers.
Supermicro · AI servers and rack-scale systems, including direct liquid cooled racksArista Networks · Ethernet switches and routers for AI and cloud data centres
Confirmed
US$19.9bn
Supermicro net sales, Q1 FY2027 (Jul to Sep 2026), against US$5.0bn a year earlier (preliminary)
Confirmed
US$3.66bn
Arista revenue, Q3 2026, up 58.5% on a year earlier and above its own US$3.3bn guidance
Projected
4,000
direct liquid cooled racks a month Supermicro says it is on track to build by December 2026, out of more than 8,000 racks (company target)
Projected
77
US$bn, midpoint of Supermicro's fiscal 2027 sales guidance of US$72bn to US$82bn (company forecast, not ours)
Both quarters end on 30 September, so the bars compare the same three months. Supermicro's fiscal year starts in July, so these are its Q1 FY2026 and Q1 FY2027. Tap a legend item to hide a year, and hover or tap a company for growth.
Sources: Supermicro (Business Wire): Supermicro Announces First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results (3 Nov 2026, preliminary, unaudited) (opens in a new tab); Arista Networks (Business Wire): Arista Networks, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (3 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab); Arista Networks via SEC EDGAR: Form 8-K, results for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (filed 3 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab). Published 3 November 2026, accessed 4 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company and fiscal quarter | Revenue (US$m) | Gross profit (US$m) | Operating income (US$m) | Net income (US$m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supermicro Q1 FY2026 (Jul to Sep 2025) | 5,017.8 | 467.4 | 182.3 | 168.3 |
| Supermicro Q1 FY2027 (Jul to Sep 2026) | 19,945.8 | 2,541 | 2,064.5 | 1,594.2 |
| Arista Networks Q3 2025 (Jul to Sep 2025) | 2,308.3 | 1,490.2 | 978.2 | 853 |
| Arista Networks Q3 2026 (Jul to Sep 2026) | 3,657.6 | 2,325.7 | 1,642.4 | 1,560.4 |
Gross margin is revenue less the cost of the products sold, operating margin also takes off research, sales and admin costs, both GAAP and as a share of revenue (our calculation from the released figures). Supermicro's gross margin was 17.5% in the April to June quarter, its release says, so the latest quarter fell back from that.
Sources: the same two releases as the revenue chart. Accessed 4 Nov 2026.
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| Measure | Jul to Sep 2025 (%) | Jul to Sep 2026 (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Supermicro gross margin | 9.3 | 12.7 |
| Supermicro operating margin | 3.6 | 10.4 |
| Arista Networks gross margin | 64.6 | 63.6 |
| Arista Networks operating margin | 42.4 | 44.9 |
Green bars add cash, red bars take it away, and the dark bar is the result. From the condensed cash flow statement in the release. Receivables are money owed by customers, prepayments are deferred revenue (customers paying before delivery), non-cash items are depreciation, share-based pay and other non-cash lines. Non-cash items and other working capital are our sums of the lines shown there.
Source: Supermicro (Business Wire): Supermicro Announces First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results (3 Nov 2026, preliminary, unaudited) (opens in a new tab) (condensed consolidated statement of cash flows, preliminary). Accessed 4 Nov 2026.
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| Line | US$m |
|---|---|
| Net income | 1,594.2 |
| Non-cash | 153.8 |
| Receivables | -3,559.8 |
| Inventory | -2,477.4 |
| Prepayments | 3,053.7 |
| Other working capital | 801.5 |
| Operating cash flow | -434.0 |
| Company | Period | Company guidance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supermicro | Q2 FY2027 (Oct to Dec 2026) | Net sales of US$19.5bn to US$21.5bn for the quarter ending 31 December 2026 | Supermicro (Business Wire): Supermicro Announces First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results (3 Nov 2026, preliminary, unaudited) (opens in a new tab) |
| Supermicro | Fiscal year 2027 (Jul 2026 to Jun 2027) | Net sales of US$72.0bn to US$82.0bn, raised on the call from US$65bn to US$72bn | Supermicro (Business Wire): Supermicro Announces First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results (3 Nov 2026, preliminary, unaudited) (opens in a new tab) |
| Arista Networks | Q4 2026 (Oct to Dec 2026) | Revenue of US$3.9bn to US$4.0bn and a non-GAAP operating margin of 48% to 49% | Arista Networks (Business Wire): Arista Networks, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (3 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| Arista Networks | 2027 (first outlook) | About US$18.5bn, growth of 38% to 40%, said on the call | The Motley Fool: Arista (ANET) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (3 Nov 2026 call) (opens in a new tab) |
What the companies said about racks, cooling and scale (company statements and targets, not verified by us):
- Charles Liang said Supermicro is on track to produce more than 8,000 racks a month, including more than 4,000 direct liquid cooled (DLC) racks, by December 2026. (company target; The Motley Fool: Super Micro (SMCI) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript (3 Nov 2026 call) (opens in a new tab))
- Supermicro said one large data centre customer made up 44% of revenue in the quarter, against 28% for fiscal 2026 as a whole, and that AI-related products were about 71% of revenue. (company statement; The Motley Fool: Super Micro (SMCI) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript (3 Nov 2026 call) (opens in a new tab))
- Arista launched a liquid-cooled rack-scale portfolio for AI networks, including the Etherlink SU-144 architecture for up to 144 accelerators per rack in a single hop. (company statement; Arista Networks (Business Wire): Arista Networks, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results (3 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab))
- Jayshree Ullal said Arista forecasts more than 10 GW of AI deployments across 10 or more types of accelerator by the end of 2027. (company target; The Motley Fool: Arista (ANET) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (3 Nov 2026 call) (opens in a new tab))
Our commentary (not advice): for data centre builders the useful signal is the rack count, not the share price. If Supermicro reaches its own target of more than 4,000 direct liquid cooled racks a month, each of those racks needs a coolant distribution unit or a share of one, plus heat rejection outside, so the target is a read-across to CDU, pump and dry cooler demand. Arista's move into liquid-cooled switch racks points the same way. Both are company targets, and Supermicro's results are still preliminary. See how the secondary cooling loop works and what 1 GW of IT load needs in power and water.
AI optical networking stocks: Corning, Coherent and Lumentum results to September 2026 Filed
Not investment advice. Figures are from each company's own quarterly report (10-Q) and results release: Corning for Q3 2026 (to 30 September, released 27 October), Coherent for its fiscal Q1 2027 (to 30 September, 4 November) and Lumentum for its fiscal Q1 2027 (to 26 September, 2 November 2026). Revenue and gross profit are GAAP figures as filed. Growth rates, shares and margins are our calculation. Segment profit is each company's own measure, so it is shown in the table, not compared on a chart. Guidance is the companies' own.
Every GPU in an AI cluster talks to thousands of others through optical links: fibre and connectors from the rack to the spine, laser-driven transceivers at each end, and, increasingly, optical circuit switches and optics packaged next to the chip. These three listed US companies make much of that kit, so their results show how fast AI networks are being built. For data centre teams, more optics means more heat at the switch and the rack, and more fibre to plan into halls and between campuses.
Confirmed
79.1%
rise in Coherent's Datacenter & Communications revenue on a year earlier, to US$1.95bn (our calculation)
Source: Coherent Corp. (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
84%
growth in Corning's Enterprise Networks sales (including hyperscale data centres) in Q3 2026, as stated
Confirmed
136.5%
rise in Lumentum's quarterly revenue on a year earlier, to US$1.26bn
Source: Lumentum (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 September 2026 (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
more than US$108m
Lumentum revenue from optical circuit switches in the quarter, as stated in its 10-Q
Source: Lumentum (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 September 2026 (opens in a new tab)
Corning: Optical Communications segment. Coherent: Datacenter & Communications segment. Lumentum reports no data centre line, so its whole revenue is shown. Each segment also sells to telecom carriers, so none of these is pure data centre revenue. The quarters end on slightly different dates (tap a bar).
Sources: Corning (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (opens in a new tab); Coherent Corp. (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (opens in a new tab); Lumentum (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 September 2026 (opens in a new tab). Accessed 10 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Line shown | Quarter | A year earlier (US$m) | Latest (US$m) | Change (%, our calculation) | Share of company revenue now (%, our calculation) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corning | Optical Communications segment | Q3 2026 (to 30 Sep 2026) | 1652 | 2379 | 44 | 49 |
| Coherent Corp. | Datacenter & Communications segment | Fiscal Q1 2027 (to 30 Sep 2026) | 1090 | 1951.7 | 79.1 | 82.3 |
| Lumentum | Whole company (no separate data centre line) | Fiscal Q1 2027 (to 26 Sep 2026) | 533.8 | 1262.6 | 136.5 | 100 |
Our calculation from GAAP revenue and cost of sales; it matches the gross margins the companies print (Corning 37.3%, Coherent 39.1%, Lumentum 51.0%). Gross margin depends on product mix (fibre, lasers, modules and, at Corning, display glass and solar), so a higher figure is not a ranking.
Sources: Corning (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (opens in a new tab); Coherent Corp. (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 (opens in a new tab); Lumentum (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 September 2026 (opens in a new tab). Accessed 10 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company | Gross margin a year earlier (%) | Gross margin now (%) | Profit measure (company's own) | A year earlier (US$m) | Latest (US$m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corning | 37.1 | 37.3 | Optical Communications segment net income | 295 | 532 |
| Coherent Corp. | 36.6 | 39.1 | Datacenter & Communications segment profit | 269.3 | 508.7 |
| Lumentum | 34 | 51 | GAAP income from operations (no segment profit reported) | 6.7 | 359.8 |
Systems, which include cloud transceivers and optical circuit switches, more than tripled. Lumentum's two largest end customers took 37% and 11% of revenue in the quarter. Lumentum has agreed to be bought by Marvell Technology in an all-stock deal the companies value at about US$115bn, expected to close in the first half of 2028 subject to approvals.
Sources: Lumentum (SEC filing): Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 September 2026 (opens in a new tab); Marvell Technology and Lumentum: Marvell and Lumentum to combine, creating a category leader in AI connectivity (2 November 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 10 Nov 2026.
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| Product type | Quarter to 27 Sep 2025 (US$m) | Quarter to 26 Sep 2026 (US$m) |
|---|---|---|
| Components (laser chips, pump lasers, transport) | 379.2 | 754.2 |
| Systems (cloud transceivers, optical circuit switches) | 154.6 | 508.4 |
What the companies expect (their forecasts, not ours)
- Corning: Q4 2026 core sales (a non-GAAP measure) of US$5.2bn to US$5.3bn, about 19% higher than a year earlier, and core EPS of US$0.96 to US$1.00; Optical Communications sales rose 44% in Q3, with Enterprise Networks up 84% and generative AI product sales more than doubling. Source: Corning (SEC filing, Exhibit 99.1): Corning Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results (27 October 2026) (opens in a new tab).
- Coherent Corp.: Fiscal Q2 2027 revenue of US$2.55bn to US$2.75bn and non-GAAP gross margin of 40% to 42%; expects its first US$3bn revenue quarter by the end of fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2027 pro forma revenue growth above 60%. Source: Coherent Corp. (SEC filing, Exhibit 99.1): Coherent Corp. Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Results (4 November 2026) (opens in a new tab).
- Lumentum: Fiscal Q2 2027 revenue of US$1.575bn to US$1.625bn and non-GAAP operating margin of 45.0% to 46.0%; says it secured a second major near- or co-packaged optics win backed by purchase commitments above US$5bn. Source: Lumentum (SEC filing, Exhibit 99.1): Lumentum Announces First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results (2 November 2026) (opens in a new tab).
Key takeaways
- Optics is growing faster than the rest of these companies: Coherent's data centre and communications segment was 82.3% of its revenue, against 68.9% a year earlier, and Optical Communications was 49% of Corning's sales.
- Margins rose with volume at all three, most of all at Lumentum (gross margin 34% to 51%), which points to tight supply of lasers and transceivers. Coherent says it is adding indium phosphide capacity in Sherman, Texas, and Sweden to meet an industry-wide shortage.
- Buyers are paying up front: Corning recorded a US$1.0bn customer deposit under a supply agreement running to the end of 2029, and Lumentum says its second near- or co-packaged optics win is backed by purchase commitments above US$5bn.
- Policy is a risk to supply: Reuters reported on 10 November that Microsoft is lobbying against an expected US ban on new models of Chinese optical transceivers (Reuters (via Investing.com): Exclusive: Microsoft presses Trump to scuttle expected ban on Chinese data center technology (10 November 2026) (opens in a new tab)).
Our commentary (not advice): for data centre designers, optics is a power and cooling question as well as a network one. Every pluggable transceiver adds watts at the switch, and co-packaged optics moves that heat onto the switch package, where liquid cooling is more likely. More fibre per rack also takes space in trays and risers. Related: AI servers and switches, chip makers, M&A deals, how chip power drives rack density and cooling, direct liquid cooling.
Memory and foundry: TSMC vs SK hynix vs Micron revenue and margins by quarter Filed
Not investment advice. Revenue and operating income are as each company reported them in its own currency (TSMC in NT$, SK hynix in won, Micron in US$). SK hynix's latest quarter is preliminary and unaudited. Index values and margins are our calculation. Guidance is each company's own forecast with its date, not ours. We do not rate the shares.
Every AI accelerator is made in a foundry and needs stacks of high bandwidth memory (HBM) beside it. TSMC is a contract chipmaker (a foundry) that manufactures chips other companies design, and SK hynix and Micron make the DRAM and HBM memory that AI servers use. Their results show how hard the AI build-out is pulling on chip supply before the chips reach a data centre rack.
Key takeaways
- Memory grew fastest: revenue in the latest quarter was about 4.3 times a year earlier at SK hynix and 4.8 times at Micron, against 1.5 times at TSMC (our calculation, each in its own currency).
- Margins swapped places: a year ago TSMC had the highest operating margin of the three (50.6%). In Q3 2026 SK hynix (79.7%) and Micron (80.7%) were both above TSMC (58.7%).
- AI is most of TSMC: high performance computing, which includes AI accelerators, was 68% of TSMC revenue in 3Q26, up from 57% a year earlier.
TSMC
SK hynixMicron
Confirmed
US$46.7bn
TSMC revenue in 3Q26 (NT$1,494.24bn), up 50.9% on a year earlier in NT$
Source: TSMC: TSMC Reports Third Quarter EPS of NT$29.43 (15 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
104.6 tn won
SK hynix revenue in 3Q26, up 327.9% on a year earlier (preliminary)
Source: SK hynix Newsroom: SK hynix Announces 3Q26 Financial Results (28 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
US$54.2bn
Micron revenue in its fiscal Q4 2026 (to 3 Sep 2026, 14 weeks), against US$11.3bn a year earlier
Confirmed
68%
share of TSMC revenue from high performance computing in 3Q26, as reported
Source: TSMC Investor Relations: 3Q26 Management Report (15 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab)
An index shows growth without converting currencies: 200 means revenue doubled since Q3 2025. Micron's fiscal quarters are placed under the calendar quarter they mostly cover (our alignment) and its latest quarter had 14 weeks instead of 13, which flatters it slightly. Hover or tap a quarter for the reported revenue. Tap a legend name to hide or show a company.
Sources: TSMC Investor Relations: 3Q26 Management Report (15 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); TSMC Investor Relations: 1Q26 Management Report (16 Apr 2026) (opens in a new tab); TSMC Investor Relations: 4Q25 Management Report (15 Jan 2026) (opens in a new tab); SK hynix Newsroom: SK hynix Announces 3Q26 Financial Results (28 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); SK hynix Newsroom: SK hynix Announces 1Q26 Financial Results (23 Apr 2026) (opens in a new tab); SK hynix Newsroom: SK hynix Announces FY25 Financial Results (28 Jan 2026) (opens in a new tab); Micron via SEC EDGAR: Micron Technology Reports Record Fiscal Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2026 Results (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 30 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab); SEC EDGAR: Micron Technology company facts (XBRL from 10-Q and 10-K filings, fiscal 2025 and 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 2 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company and quarter | Calendar quarter (our alignment) | Revenue as reported | Operating income as reported | Index (Q3 2025 = 100) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSMC 3Q25 | Q3 2025 | NT$989.92bn | NT$500.69bn | 100 |
| TSMC 4Q25 | Q4 2025 | NT$1,046.09bn | NT$564.9bn | 106 |
| TSMC 1Q26 | Q1 2026 | NT$1,134.1bn | NT$658.97bn | 115 |
| TSMC 2Q26 | Q2 2026 | NT$1,270.38bn | NT$766.6bn | 128 |
| TSMC 3Q26 | Q3 2026 | NT$1,494.24bn | NT$876.45bn | 151 |
| SK hynix 3Q25 | Q3 2025 | 24.4 trillion won | 11.4 trillion won | 100 |
| SK hynix 4Q25 | Q4 2025 | 32.8 trillion won | 19.2 trillion won | 134 |
| SK hynix 1Q26 | Q1 2026 | 52.6 trillion won | 37.6 trillion won | 215 |
| SK hynix 2Q26 | Q2 2026 | 79.3 trillion won | 60.5 trillion won | 324 |
| SK hynix 3Q26 | Q3 2026 | 104.6 trillion won | 83.3 trillion won | 428 |
| Micron FQ4 2025 (May to Aug 2025), our calculation | Q3 2025 | US$11.3bn | US$3.7bn | 100 |
| Micron FQ1 2026 (Aug to Nov 2025) | Q4 2025 | US$13.6bn | US$6.1bn | 121 |
| Micron FQ2 2026 (Nov 2025 to Feb 2026) | Q1 2026 | US$23.9bn | US$16.1bn | 211 |
| Micron FQ3 2026 (Feb to May 2026) | Q2 2026 | US$41.5bn | US$33.3bn | 366 |
| Micron FQ4 2026 (May to Sep 2026, 14 weeks), our calculation | Q3 2026 | US$54.2bn | US$43.8bn | 479 |
Operating income as a share of revenue, our calculation from the reported figures (TSMC TIFRS, SK hynix K-IFRS, Micron GAAP). Accounting standards differ, so read the lines as a trend rather than an exact comparison. A percentage, so it has its own chart.
Sources: the same releases and filings as the chart above. Accessed 2 Nov 2026.
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| Calendar quarter | TSMC operating margin | SK hynix operating margin | Micron operating margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 50.6% | 46.6% | 32.3% |
| Q4 2025 | 54% | 58.4% | 45% |
| Q1 2026 | 58.1% | 71.5% | 67.6% |
| Q2 2026 | 60.3% | 76.3% | 80.4% |
| Q3 2026 | 58.7% | 79.7% | 80.7% |
TSMC groups revenue by platform. HPC covers the processors and AI accelerators that go into data centres and PCs. Smartphones were 21% of revenue in 3Q26. Hover or tap a bar for revenue and gross margin.
Sources: TSMC Investor Relations: 3Q26 Management Report (15 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab); TSMC Investor Relations: 1Q26 Management Report (16 Apr 2026) (opens in a new tab); TSMC Investor Relations: 4Q25 Management Report (15 Jan 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 2 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Quarter | HPC share | Net revenue (NT$bn) | Net revenue (US$bn) | Gross margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3Q25 | 57% | 989.92 | 33.10 | 59.5% |
| 4Q25 | 55% | 1,046.09 | 33.73 | 62.3% |
| 1Q26 | 61% | 1,134.1 | 35.90 | 66.2% |
| 2Q26 | 66% | 1,270.38 | 40.20 | 67.7% |
| 3Q26 | 68% | 1,494.24 | 46.72 | 66.4% |
Ranges are the companies' own forecasts, given with their last results. SK hynix does not give numeric revenue guidance, so it is not shown. These are not CoolPower Index forecasts.
Sources: TSMC Investor Relations: 2026 Q3 Quarterly Results and 4Q26 guidance (opens in a new tab); Micron via SEC EDGAR: Micron Technology Reports Record Fiscal Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2026 Results (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 30 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 2 Nov 2026.
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| Company | Quarter | What the company said |
|---|---|---|
| TSMC | 4Q26 | Revenue US$52.3bn to US$54.3bn, gross margin 65.0% to 67.0%, operating margin 56.5% to 58.5%, at an assumed US$1 = NT$31.8 (given 15 Oct 2026). TSMC Investor Relations: 2026 Q3 Quarterly Results and 4Q26 guidance (opens in a new tab) |
| SK hynix | 4Q26 | No numeric revenue guidance. In its 3Q26 release SK hynix says it has signed long-term agreements with 14 major customers, including leading cloud companies, covering more than 50% of its 2027 to 2028 production capacity (company statement, 28 Oct 2026). SK hynix Newsroom: SK hynix Announces 3Q26 Financial Results (28 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| Micron | FQ1 2027 | Revenue US$61.5bn plus or minus US$1.5bn, GAAP gross margin about 85.95% (given 30 Sep 2026). Micron via SEC EDGAR: Micron Technology Reports Record Fiscal Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2026 Results (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 30 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
Our commentary (not advice): memory makers are now earning margins that used to belong to the foundry. A year ago Micron kept about a third of its revenue as operating profit. In its latest quarter it kept 80.7%, and SK hynix 79.7%. That points to memory, not only GPUs, as a constraint on how many AI servers can be built, which matters for data centre schedules and for the cooling and power orders that follow them. SK hynix says long-term agreements cover more than half of its 2027 to 2028 production capacity. Dates to watch: TSMC's monthly revenue reports and its 4Q26 results against the guidance above, and Micron's fiscal Q1 2027 results against its own range. Related: NVIDIA vs AMD vs Broadcom, chip power and rack density, Asia Pacific.
Who is buying data centre cooling and power companies? M&A deals, prices and multiples, 2024 to 2026 Committed
Not investment advice. Prices are the headline figures in each buyer's or seller's announcement, on the basis and in the currency it states (cash at closing, purchase price, enterprise value or total transaction value). Earn-outs are shown separately and never added in. Multiples are the buyer's own unless marked as our calculation. Deals are not added up because the bases differ. This is a tracker of announced deals, not a complete census, and we do not rate the shares.
Liquid cooling and power distribution have become things the biggest equipment groups would rather buy than build. Since October 2024, makers of electrical gear (Eaton, Schneider Electric, nVent, Vertiv), HVAC groups (Trane Technologies, Johnson Controls), and newcomers from water chemistry (Ecolab), oilfield services (SLB), electronics manufacturing (Flex), building materials (Kingspan) and consumer electronics (Samsung) have all paid for cooling or power specialists. For buyers of equipment this matters because a supplier you know may now sit inside a larger group, with new contracts, support routes and product bundles. See the supplier directory and Q3 results of listed suppliers.
Key takeaways
- Liquid cooling makers fetched the highest multiples: buyers stated about 29 times EBITDA for CoolIT Systems and 22.5 times for Boyd Thermal. The other deals with a multiple, cooling (Kelvion about 11, PurgeRite about 10) and power (9.4 to 13), sat between about 9 and 13 times (buyers' figures and our calculation, on different years' EBITDA).
- The largest deal is still Eaton and Boyd Thermal: US$9.5bn, announced 3 Nov 2025, of which US$1.5bn of Boyd Thermal's forecast 2026 sales of US$1.7bn is liquid cooling.
- 2026 is busier: 14 of the 19 deals we track were announced in 2026, and Vertiv alone has made 4 purchases since November 2025 (PurgeRite, Strategic Thermal Labs, UtilityInnovation Group, King Environmental Services).
MotivairFibrebondFläktGroupBoyd ThermalPurgeRiteLiquidStackAlloy EnterprisesBMC Manufacturing GroupMaverick PowerUtilityInnovation GroupEPC PowerFlow Control HoldingsCOL GroupKing Environmental Services
Confirmed
19
cooling and power deals tracked since October 2024, 14 of them announced in 2026
Sources: company announcements listed below
Confirmed
US$9.5bn
largest headline price: Eaton for Boyd Thermal (liquid cooling), completed 12 Mar 2026
Source: Eaton: Eaton signs agreement to acquire Boyd Thermal (3 Nov 2025) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
29x
highest stated multiple: Ecolab paid about 29 times CoolIT's estimated next-12-month adjusted EBITDA
Source: Ecolab: Ecolab to acquire CoolIT Systems (20 Mar 2026) (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed
4
acquisitions by Vertiv since November 2025 (two services, one cold-plate engineering, one power)
Source: Vertiv announcements
Each dot is one announced acquisition or merger, teal for cooling and thermal, amber for power and electrical. Hover or tap a dot for the price, what was bought and whether the deal has closed. Deals with undisclosed prices are included.
Sources: the buyers' and sellers' announcements listed in the table. Accessed 3 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Announced | Buyer | Bought | Area | What it makes or does | Headline price | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2024 | Schneider Electric | Motivair (75% stake) (Buffalo, New York) | Cooling and thermal | Liquid cooling: CDUs, rear door heat exchangers, cold plates and chillers | US$850m in cash for an initial 75% stake, including the value of a tax step-up. Schneider expects to buy the remaining 25% in 2028. | Completed 28 Feb 2025 | Schneider Electric: Schneider Electric acquires Motivair Corporation (17 Oct 2024) (opens in a new tab); Schneider Electric: Schneider Electric completes acquisition of Motivair Corporation (28 Feb 2025) (opens in a new tab) |
| 11 Mar 2025 | Eaton | Fibrebond (Minden, Louisiana) | Power and electrical | Pre-integrated modular power enclosures | US$1.4bn | Completed | Eaton: Eaton signs agreement to acquire Fibrebond Corporation (11 Mar 2025) (opens in a new tab); Eaton: Eaton completes acquisition of Fibrebond (opens in a new tab) |
| 14 May 2025 | Samsung Electronics | FläktGroup (Herne, Germany) | Cooling and thermal | HVAC, including air and liquid cooling for data centres | €1.5bn for all shares | Completed 6 Nov 2025 | Samsung Global Newsroom: Samsung Electronics acquires leading global HVAC solutions provider FläktGroup (14 May 2025) (opens in a new tab); FläktGroup: Samsung Electronics completes acquisition of HVAC company (6 Nov 2025) (opens in a new tab) |
| 3 Nov 2025 | Eaton | Boyd Thermal (United States) | Cooling and thermal | Liquid cooling and thermal systems (US$1.5bn of forecast 2026 sales of US$1.7bn in liquid cooling) | US$9.5bn | Completed 12 Mar 2026 | Eaton: Eaton signs agreement to acquire Boyd Thermal (3 Nov 2025) (opens in a new tab); Eaton: Eaton completes acquisition of Boyd Thermal (12 Mar 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| 3 Nov 2025 | Vertiv | PurgeRite (Houston, Texas) | Cooling and thermal | Flushing, purging and filtration of liquid cooling loops (services) | About US$1.0bn in cash at closing. Plus up to US$250m in cash tied to 2026 performance. | Completed 4 Dec 2025 | Vertiv: Vertiv announces intent to acquire PurgeRite (3 Nov 2025) (opens in a new tab); Vertiv: Vertiv completes acquisition of PurgeRite (4 Dec 2025) (opens in a new tab) |
| 10 Feb 2026 | Trane Technologies | LiquidStack (Carrollton, Texas) | Cooling and thermal | Liquid and immersion cooling | Not disclosed | Signed, expected to close early 2026 (completion not checked) | Trane Technologies: Trane Technologies to acquire LiquidStack (10 Feb 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| 18 Feb 2026 | Johnson Controls | Alloy Enterprises (Boston, Massachusetts) | Cooling and thermal | Direct liquid cooling components (cold plates) | Not disclosed | Signed, expected to close in Johnson Controls' fiscal Q3 (completion not checked) | Johnson Controls: Johnson Controls signs agreement to acquire Alloy Enterprises (18 Feb 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| 20 Mar 2026 | Ecolab | CoolIT Systems | Cooling and thermal | Direct liquid cooling: CDUs, cold plates, liquid loops and rack manifolds | About US$4.75bn in cash at closing | Completed 2 Jul 2026 | Ecolab: Ecolab to acquire CoolIT Systems (20 Mar 2026) (opens in a new tab); Ecolab: Ecolab closes CoolIT acquisition (2 Jul 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Vertiv | Strategic Thermal Labs | Cooling and thermal | Cold-plate design and server-side liquid cooling validation | Not stated | Completed 27 Apr 2026 | Vertiv: Vertiv acquires Strategic Thermal Labs (27 Apr 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Kingspan | BMC Manufacturing Group (Ashbourne, Co Meath, Ireland) | Power and electrical | Low-voltage switchgear and critical power management for data centres | €850m initially (€600m cash and €250m in new Kingspan shares), as reported. Up to €50m more deferred, contingent on profit targets (deal worth up to €900m). | Completed 25 Sep 2026 | The Irish Times: Kingspan buys data centre specialist BMC Manufacturing in deal worth up to €900m (11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); Kingspan Group plc (Euronext Dublin): Acquisition update: completion of the acquisition of BMC Manufacturing Group (25 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| 24 Aug 2026 | nVent | Maverick Power (McKinney, Texas) | Power and electrical | Low- and medium-voltage switchgear, switchboards and modular power | US$1.75bn. Plus up to US$550m in cash tied to 2027 and 2028 performance. | Completed | nVent: nVent to acquire Maverick Power (24 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); nVent: nVent completes acquisition of Maverick Power (opens in a new tab) |
| 31 Aug 2026 | SLB | Kelvion | Cooling and thermal | Thermal management and heat exchange (data centres expected to be US$1.2bn to US$1.3bn of 2026 revenue) | About US$3.4bn in cash plus about US$0.7bn of debt assumed | Signed, expected to close in the first half of 2027 | SLB: SLB to acquire Kelvion (31 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| 2 Sept 2026 | Vertiv | UtilityInnovation Group (Raleigh, North Carolina) | Power and electrical | Microgrid controls, onsite generation orchestration and behind-the-meter power | About US$1.45bn in cash at closing. Plus up to US$1.15bn in cash tied to EBITDA targets over 12 and 24 months. | Completed 27 Oct 2026 | Vertiv: Vertiv announces agreement to acquire UtilityInnovation Group (2 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab); Vertiv: Vertiv completes acquisition of UtilityInnovation Group (27 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| 3 Sept 2026 | Flex | EPC Power (California) | Power and electrical | 800V data centre power conversion and grid-forming systems | US$4.4bn. EPC Power expects about US$800m of revenue in 2026 (price about 5.5 times that, our calculation). No EBITDA multiple given. | Completed | Flex: Flex to acquire EPC Power (3 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab); Flex: Flex completes acquisition of EPC Power (opens in a new tab) |
| 10 Sept 2026 | Blackstone | Flow Control Holdings (Cincinnati, Ohio) | Cooling and thermal | Flow components for CDUs, in-row manifolds and secondary fluid networks | Not disclosed | Signed, expected to close in Q4 2026 | Blackstone: Blackstone to acquire Flow Control Holdings (10 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| 25 Sept 2026 | Eaton | COL Group (Turin, Milan, Bergamo and Catania, Italy) | Power and electrical | Medium-voltage switchgear (SF6-free), grid automation and modular power | Enterprise value of €810m. COL Group forecasts sales of €250m for 2027. | Signed, expected to close in Q1 2027 | Eaton: Eaton signs agreement to acquire COL Group (25 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 3C | Datalec (merger, now 3C Datalec) | Cooling and thermal | Liquid cooling and data centre engineering services | Not disclosed | Merged | 3C Datalec: 3C merges with Datalec (14 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Vertiv | King Environmental Services (near Dublin, Ireland) | Cooling and thermal | Flushing, treatment and commissioning of liquid cooling pipework (services) | Not disclosed (not material to Vertiv) | Completed 26 Oct 2026 | Vertiv: Vertiv completes acquisition of King Environmental Services (26 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
| 2 Nov 2026 | Omen AI | Aquatic Labs | Cooling and thermal | Real-time coolant chemistry sensing | US$16m in cash and stock | Completed | Omen AI via PR Newswire: Omen AI acquires Aquatic Labs (2 Nov 2026) (opens in a new tab) |
Teal bars are cooling and thermal deals, amber bars power and electrical. Bases differ: Motivair is 75% of the equity, Kelvion includes about US$0.7bn of debt assumed (our sum), and Vertiv's and nVent's earn-outs are not included. Omen AI's US$16m purchase of Aquatic Labs is in the table only. Hover or tap a bar for the basis and source.
Sources: Eaton: Eaton signs agreement to acquire Boyd Thermal (3 Nov 2025) (opens in a new tab); Ecolab: Ecolab to acquire CoolIT Systems (20 Mar 2026) (opens in a new tab); Flex: Flex to acquire EPC Power (3 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab); SLB: SLB to acquire Kelvion (31 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); nVent: nVent to acquire Maverick Power (24 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); Vertiv: Vertiv announces agreement to acquire UtilityInnovation Group (2 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab); Eaton: Eaton signs agreement to acquire Fibrebond Corporation (11 Mar 2025) (opens in a new tab); Vertiv: Vertiv announces intent to acquire PurgeRite (3 Nov 2025) (opens in a new tab); Schneider Electric: Schneider Electric acquires Motivair Corporation (17 Oct 2024) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 3 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Deal | Area | Headline price | Basis | Announced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eaton / Boyd Thermal | Cooling and thermal | US$9.5bn | Purchase price | 3 Nov 2025 |
| Ecolab / CoolIT Systems | Cooling and thermal | About US$4.75bn in cash at closing | Cash at closing | 20 Mar 2026 |
| Flex / EPC Power | Power and electrical | US$4.4bn | Transaction value | 3 Sept 2026 |
| SLB / Kelvion | Cooling and thermal | About US$3.4bn in cash plus about US$0.7bn of debt assumed | Total transaction value (cash plus assumed debt, our sum) | 31 Aug 2026 |
| nVent / Maverick Power | Power and electrical | US$1.75bn | Purchase price | 24 Aug 2026 |
| Vertiv / UtilityInnovation Group | Power and electrical | About US$1.45bn in cash at closing | Cash at closing | 2 Sept 2026 |
| Eaton / Fibrebond | Power and electrical | US$1.4bn | Purchase price | 11 Mar 2025 |
| Vertiv / PurgeRite | Cooling and thermal | About US$1.0bn in cash at closing | Cash at closing | 3 Nov 2025 |
| Schneider Electric / Motivair | Cooling and thermal | US$850m in cash for an initial 75% stake, including the value of a tax step-up | Cash for 75% of the equity | 17 Oct 2024 |
Shown separately in euros so no exchange rate is chosen for you. Kingspan's figure is the initial price, with up to €50m more deferred.
Sources: Samsung Global Newsroom: Samsung Electronics acquires leading global HVAC solutions provider FläktGroup (14 May 2025) (opens in a new tab); The Irish Times: Kingspan buys data centre specialist BMC Manufacturing in deal worth up to €900m (11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); Eaton: Eaton signs agreement to acquire COL Group (25 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 3 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Deal | Area | Headline price | Basis | Announced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samsung Electronics / FläktGroup | Cooling and thermal | €1.5bn for all shares | Purchase of all shares | 14 May 2025 |
| Kingspan / BMC Manufacturing Group | Power and electrical | €850m initially (€600m cash and €250m in new Kingspan shares), as reported | Initial consideration | 11 Aug 2026 |
| Eaton / COL Group | Power and electrical | Enterprise value of €810m | Enterprise value | 25 Sept 2026 |
EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, a common yardstick for deal prices. The years differ (2025, 2026, 2027 or the next 12 months) and some include expected synergies, so read the bars as a rough guide. Fibrebond and BMC are our calculation from the price and the EBITDA figure in the announcement or report.
Sources: Ecolab: Ecolab to acquire CoolIT Systems (20 Mar 2026) (opens in a new tab); Eaton: Eaton signs agreement to acquire Boyd Thermal (3 Nov 2025) (opens in a new tab); Vertiv: Vertiv announces agreement to acquire UtilityInnovation Group (2 Sep 2026) (opens in a new tab); Eaton: Eaton signs agreement to acquire Fibrebond Corporation (11 Mar 2025) (opens in a new tab); nVent: nVent to acquire Maverick Power (24 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); SLB: SLB to acquire Kelvion (31 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab); Vertiv: Vertiv announces intent to acquire PurgeRite (3 Nov 2025) (opens in a new tab); The Irish Times: Kingspan buys data centre specialist BMC Manufacturing in deal worth up to €900m (11 Aug 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 3 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Deal | Area | Multiple | On what | Who calculated it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecolab / CoolIT Systems | Cooling and thermal | about 29x | estimated next-12-month adjusted EBITDA (24 times estimated 2027) | Stated by the buyer |
| Eaton / Boyd Thermal | Cooling and thermal | about 22.5x | Boyd Thermal's estimated 2026 adjusted EBITDA | Stated by the buyer |
| Vertiv / UtilityInnovation Group | Power and electrical | about 13x | expected 2027 EBITDA | Stated by the buyer |
| Eaton / Fibrebond | Power and electrical | about 12.7x | 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate of US$110m | Our calculation |
| nVent / Maverick Power | Power and electrical | about 11.5x | anticipated 2026 adjusted EBITDA (about 10.5 times adjusted for tax benefits) | Stated by the buyer |
| SLB / Kelvion | Cooling and thermal | about 11x | estimated 2026 EBITDA before synergies (about 8.5 times with expected synergies) | Stated by the buyer |
| Vertiv / PurgeRite | Cooling and thermal | about 10x | expected 2026 EBITDA including expected cost synergies | Stated by the buyer |
| Kingspan / BMC Manufacturing Group | Power and electrical | about 9.4x | expected 2026 EBITDA of about €90m, as reported | Our calculation |
Our commentary (not advice): the two highest multiples went to makers of direct liquid cooling hardware. Ecolab and Eaton paid more than 20 times EBITDA for CoolIT and Boyd Thermal, while the other cooling, services and power deals with a multiple sat between about 9 and 13 times. That suggests buyers were paying most for proven liquid cooling products and customer relationships, not for cooling or power in general. Several buyers also pay part of the price only if the business keeps growing (Vertiv's earn-outs of up to US$1.15bn for UIG and US$250m for PurgeRite, nVent's up to US$550m for Maverick Power), which shifts some of the risk back to the sellers. For equipment buyers, check who owns your supplier now, whether product lines or service contracts change, and whether a bundled power and cooling offer is better value than buying separately. Dates to watch: SLB and Kelvion (first half of 2027), Eaton and COL Group (Q1 2027) and Blackstone and Flow Control Holdings (Q4 2026). Related: supplier results, cooling technologies, directory.
AI lab funding: Anthropic vs OpenAI valuation over time, rounds and revenue multiples (with Mistral AI), 2025 to 2026 Committed
Not investment advice. These are private companies. Each figure is from the lab's own announcement of a priced round: money raised, lead investors and post-money valuation (what investors valued the company at, including the new money). Run-rate revenue is the company's own statement. Valuation divided by run-rate revenue is our calculation. Mistral AI's rounds are in euros and are never converted or added to the US$ figures. Rounds that are only reported as in talks are shown separately and are not used as a valuation.
The AI labs are the customers behind many of the biggest data centre and chip orders, so how much money they can raise decides how much compute they can sign for. In 2026 alone, Anthropic and OpenAI announced priced rounds that together raised about US$217bn (our sum of 3 announced rounds), and both say the money goes largely on compute. Anthropic's Series H announcement also lists agreements for up to 5 GW of new capacity with Amazon and 5 GW of TPU capacity with Google and Broadcom. See chip makers' results, AI clouds on borrowed money and AI news.
Key takeaways
- Anthropic overtook OpenAI: its Series H on 28 May 2026 valued it at US$965bn post-money, against US$852bn for OpenAI's round closed on 31 Mar 2026.
- 15.7 times in 15 months: Anthropic's post-money valuation went from US$61.5bn (Series E, 3 Mar 2025) to US$965bn (our calculation from its announcements).
- Less paid per dollar of revenue: on Anthropic's own run-rate figures, its valuation was at most about 36.6 times run-rate revenue at the Series F, about 27.1 times at the Series G and at most about 20.5 times at the Series H (our calculation). OpenAI's March 2026 round works out at about 35.5 times its stated US$2bn a month (our calculation).
- Europe's biggest round is much smaller: Mistral AI raised €3bn at more than €21bn post-money on 8 Sept 2026, led by Samsung Electronics, after ASML led its €1.7bn Series C at €11.7bn a year earlier.
AnthropicOpenAIMistral AI
Confirmed
US$965bn
Anthropic post-money valuation after its US$65bn Series H, 28 May 2026
Confirmed
US$852bn
OpenAI post-money valuation after its US$122bn round, closed 31 Mar 2026
Confirmed
US$122bn
largest single round: OpenAI's committed capital, March 2026
Confirmed
€21bn+
Mistral AI post-money valuation after its €3bn Series D, 8 Sep 2026
Orange bars are Anthropic, green bars are OpenAI. Post-money valuations as each company announced them. Hover or tap a bar for the amount raised, the lead investors and what the round included. A valuation is the price investors agreed, not revenue or cash.
Sources: Anthropic: Anthropic raises Series E at $61.5B post-money valuation (3 Mar 2025) (opens in a new tab); OpenAI: New funding to build towards AGI (31 Mar 2025) (opens in a new tab); Anthropic: Anthropic raises $13B Series F at $183B post-money valuation (2 Sep 2025) (opens in a new tab); Anthropic: Anthropic raises $30 billion in Series G funding at $380 billion post-money valuation (12 Feb 2026) (opens in a new tab); OpenAI: OpenAI raises $122 billion to accelerate the next phase of AI (31 Mar 2026) (opens in a new tab); Anthropic: Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation (28 May 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 3 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Round | Date | Raised | Post-money valuation | Led by | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic Series E, Mar 2025 | 3 Mar 2025 | US$3.5bn | US$61.5bn | Lightspeed Venture Partners | Anthropic |
| OpenAI SoftBank-led round, Mar 2025 | 31 Mar 2025 | US$40bn | US$300bn | SoftBank Group | OpenAI |
| Anthropic Series F, Sept 2025 | 2 Sept 2025 | US$13bn | US$183bn | ICONIQ | Anthropic |
| Mistral AI Series C, Sept 2025 | 9 Sept 2025 | €1.7bn | €11.7bn | ASML | Mistral AI |
| Anthropic Series G, Feb 2026 | 12 Feb 2026 | US$30bn | US$380bn | GIC and Coatue | Anthropic |
| OpenAI funding round, Mar 2026 | 31 Mar 2026 | US$122bn | US$852bn | SoftBank, with a16z, D. E. Shaw Ventures, MGX, TPG and T. Rowe Price-advised accounts | OpenAI |
| Anthropic Series H, May 2026 | 28 May 2026 | US$65bn | US$965bn | Altimeter, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital | Anthropic |
| Mistral AI Series D, Sept 2026 | 8 Sept 2026 | €3bn | more than €21bn | Samsung Electronics | Mistral AI |
OpenAI's 2025 round was up to US$40bn paid in two closings. Anthropic's Series G and Series H include money that hyperscalers had committed earlier (US$15bn of the Series H, including US$5bn from Amazon), so not all of it was new that day.
Sources: Anthropic: Anthropic raises Series E at $61.5B post-money valuation (3 Mar 2025) (opens in a new tab); OpenAI: New funding to build towards AGI (31 Mar 2025) (opens in a new tab); Anthropic: Anthropic raises $13B Series F at $183B post-money valuation (2 Sep 2025) (opens in a new tab); Anthropic: Anthropic raises $30 billion in Series G funding at $380 billion post-money valuation (12 Feb 2026) (opens in a new tab); OpenAI: OpenAI raises $122 billion to accelerate the next phase of AI (31 Mar 2026) (opens in a new tab); Anthropic: Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation (28 May 2026) (opens in a new tab); SoftBank Group: Announcement regarding follow-on investments in OpenAI (1 Apr 2025) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 3 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Round | Raised | What it included |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic Series E, Mar 2025 | US$3.5bn | As announced |
| OpenAI SoftBank-led round, Mar 2025 | US$40bn | Up to US$40bn agreed, paid in two closings (April and December 2025). SoftBank's filing gives a pre-money valuation of US$260bn. |
| Anthropic Series F, Sept 2025 | US$13bn | As announced |
| Anthropic Series G, Feb 2026 | US$30bn | Includes a portion of the investments previously announced by Microsoft and NVIDIA. |
| OpenAI funding round, Mar 2026 | US$122bn | Committed capital. Anchored by Amazon, NVIDIA and SoftBank, with Microsoft. OpenAI also expanded an undrawn revolving credit facility to about US$4.7bn. |
| Anthropic Series H, May 2026 | US$65bn | Includes US$15bn of investment previously committed by hyperscalers, of which US$5bn from Amazon. Micron, Samsung and SK hynix joined as strategic investors. |
Post-money valuation divided by the run-rate revenue the company stated in the same announcement. Anthropic said 'over US$5bn' (Series F) and 'crossed US$47bn' (Series H), so those two multiples are upper bounds. OpenAI said it generates US$2bn of revenue a month, which we annualise to US$24bn. Run-rate revenue is a company measure, not audited annual revenue.
Sources: Anthropic: Anthropic raises $13B Series F at $183B post-money valuation (2 Sep 2025) (opens in a new tab); Anthropic: Anthropic raises $30 billion in Series G funding at $380 billion post-money valuation (12 Feb 2026) (opens in a new tab); OpenAI: OpenAI raises $122 billion to accelerate the next phase of AI (31 Mar 2026) (opens in a new tab); Anthropic: Anthropic raises $65B in Series H funding at $965B post-money valuation (28 May 2026) (opens in a new tab). Accessed 3 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Round | Post-money valuation | Run-rate revenue (company statement) | Multiple (our calculation) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic Series F, Sept 2025 | US$183bn | over US$5bn by August 2025 | at most 36.6x |
| Anthropic Series G, Feb 2026 | US$380bn | US$14bn | about 27.1x |
| OpenAI funding round, Mar 2026 | US$852bn | US$2bn of revenue a month (US$24bn a year, our annualisation) | about 35.5x |
| Anthropic Series H, May 2026 | US$965bn | crossed US$47bn in May 2026 | at most 20.5x |
One dot per priced round. Hover or tap a dot for the amount raised and the post-money valuation, in the currency each company used (Mistral AI in euros).
Sources: the company announcements listed in the table above. Accessed 3 Nov 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Date | Lab | Round | Raised | Post-money valuation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Mar 2025 | Anthropic | Series E | US$3.5bn | US$61.5bn |
| 31 Mar 2025 | OpenAI | SoftBank-led round | US$40bn | US$300bn |
| 2 Sept 2025 | Anthropic | Series F | US$13bn | US$183bn |
| 9 Sept 2025 | Mistral AI | Series C | €1.7bn | €11.7bn |
| 12 Feb 2026 | Anthropic | Series G | US$30bn | US$380bn |
| 31 Mar 2026 | OpenAI | funding round | US$122bn | US$852bn |
| 28 May 2026 | Anthropic | Series H | US$65bn | US$965bn |
| 8 Sept 2026 | Mistral AI | Series D | €3bn | more than €21bn |
In talks, not closed Reported, not confirmed: OpenAI is seeking up to US$20bn, down from about US$30bn, at a reported US$1.25tn post-money valuation. The round had not closed. (31 Oct 2026, CNBC: OpenAI pares fundraising goal, now seeking up to $20B in latest round (31 Oct 2026) (opens in a new tab)) Not used as a valuation above until a round is announced as closed.
Our commentary (not advice): for data centre builders and suppliers, these rounds matter less as prices and more as the cash behind compute contracts. The largest backers are increasingly the companies that sell the labs chips, memory and cloud capacity (Amazon, NVIDIA and Microsoft in OpenAI's round, Micron, Samsung and SK hynix in Anthropic's Series H, Samsung leading Mistral AI's Series D), so part of the money returns to the same supply chain. That is a strength while demand grows and a shared risk if AI revenue disappoints. On its own run-rate figures, Anthropic's valuation has grown more slowly than its revenue since its Series F in September 2025, which narrows that risk for its suppliers. Related: cloud revenue against capex, AI model guide, how much power and water AI data centres use.
Gulf and Africa: where the money is going
Not investment advice. Amounts below are different kinds of money (pledges, planned investment, a cost estimate, a loan, a reported cost) over different periods, so they are shown side by side and never added up.
Knight Frank's figure for the combined data centre market valuation of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The end 2027 bar (dashed) is Knight Frank's forecast, published January 2026, not ours.
Source: Knight Frank: Data Centres Global Forecast 2026 (opens in a new tab) Published January 2026. Accessed 31 Oct 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Period | US$bn | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | US$35bn | Knight Frank figure |
| End 2027 (forecast) | US$115bn | Forecast (Knight Frank) |
Projected · Cost estimate
about US$77bn
HUMAIN
Cost at market rates of reaching 6.6 GW by 2034, as estimated by its CEO.
Projected · Reported
US$30bn
Stargate UAE (G42, OpenAI, Oracle and partners)
Cost of the 1 GW first phase of the Abu Dhabi AI campus, as reported by Reuters.
Confirmed · Investment pledge
US$15.2bn
Microsoft in the UAE
Spending in the UAE from 2023 to 2029, including its G42 stake.
Source: Microsoft: Microsoft's $15.2 billion USD investment in the UAE (opens in a new tab)
Projected · Planned investment
more than US$5.3bn
AWS in Saudi Arabia
Planned investment in its first Saudi cloud region, due December 2026.
Projected · Planned investment
US$1bn
Africa Data Centres Egypt
Total investment at full 200 MW capacity, about US$200m for phase one.
Confirmed · Loan
R8bn
Teraco
Syndicated loan funding the 40 MW JB7 and part of its solar programme.
Source: Teraco: Teraco announces JB7 and a new R8 billion syndicated loan (opens in a new tab)
Confirmed · Planned investment
US$22m
Equinix in Lagos
LG3, first phase of a plan of around US$100m over two years.
Our commentary (not advice): Gulf money is mostly state-linked (PIF's HUMAIN, Abu Dhabi's G42) paired with US hyperscalers and chip makers, while African projects are smaller and often debt-funded or telecom-led (Teraco's rand loan, Vodafone and MTN ventures). Knight Frank's own warning matters for anyone pricing these assets: more than 14 GW of MENA projects announced against about 5 GW it sees as realistic by 2030, and the March 2026 drone strikes on AWS in the UAE and Bahrain added physical risk to the picture. Regional detail: Middle East and Africa data centres.
Latin America: hyperscaler pledges and the biggest project budgets
Not investment advice. These are the companies' own headline pledges, each over its own period (three years, through 2034 or 15 years), so they are shown side by side and never added up or turned into yearly rates. Amounts announced in Brazilian reais are shown with the US$ figure the company or Reuters gave at the time.
Amber bars are AWS, blue bars are Microsoft. Each bar is a separate announcement with its own period and scope: Microsoft's pledges include AI skills programmes as well as infrastructure. Hover or tap a bar for its period, date and source. A pledge is a company statement of intent, not money already spent.
Sources: Amazon (press release): AWS to Launch an Infrastructure Region in Mexico (opens in a new tab); Amazon (press release): Amazon to Invest More Than $4 Billion to Launch Infrastructure Region in Chile (opens in a new tab); Microsoft News Center Brasil: Microsoft announces 14.7 billion Reais investment over three years in Cloud and AI infrastructure (opens in a new tab); About Amazon Brasil: AWS investirá mais de R$10 bilhões para expandir infraestrutura no Brasil (opens in a new tab); Microsoft Source LATAM: Microsoft announces $1.3 billion USD investment in Cloud and AI infrastructure in Mexico (opens in a new tab). Accessed 31 Oct 2026.
Show the data as a table
| Company and country | Headline pledge | Period and scope | Announced | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon Web Services, Mexico | more than US$5bn | Mexico, over 15 years, for the AWS Mexico (Central) Region | 26 Feb 2024 | Amazon (press release): AWS to Launch an Infrastructure Region in Mexico (opens in a new tab) |
| Amazon Web Services, Chile | more than US$4bn | Chile, long term, for the AWS South America (Chile) Region due by the end of 2026 | 7 May 2025 | Amazon (press release): Amazon to Invest More Than $4 Billion to Launch Infrastructure Region in Chile (opens in a new tab) |
| Microsoft, Brazil | R$14.7bn (about US$2.7bn) | Brazil, over three years, cloud and AI infrastructure plus AI skills training. US$ figure as converted by Reuters | 26 Sept 2024 | Microsoft News Center Brasil: Microsoft announces 14.7 billion Reais investment over three years in Cloud and AI infrastructure (opens in a new tab) |
| Amazon Web Services, Brazil | R$10.1bn (US$1.8bn) | Brazil, through 2034, to expand, build, connect, operate and maintain data centres in São Paulo state. US$ figure as given by AWS | 11 Sept 2024 | About Amazon Brasil: AWS investirá mais de R$10 bilhões para expandir infraestrutura no Brasil (opens in a new tab) |
| Microsoft, Mexico | US$1.3bn | Mexico, over three years, AI infrastructure plus skills, connectivity and small business programmes | 24 Sept 2024 | Microsoft Source LATAM: Microsoft announces $1.3 billion USD investment in Cloud and AI infrastructure in Mexico (opens in a new tab) |
Confirmed · Planned investment
R$50bn
Omnia, ByteDance and Casa dos Ventos
First phase of the Pecém campus: about R$12bn of Omnia infrastructure, R$34bn of ByteDance technology and R$4bn of renewable energy.
Projected · Official estimate
R$159bn (US$28.7bn)
Brazil, projects at an advanced stage
Estimated investment in 7.1 GW of data centre projects at a more advanced stage, a Ministry of Mines and Energy estimate.
Confirmed · Reported investment
US$630m
ODATA (Aligned Data Centers)
First phase of DeltaFlow liquid cooling at its SP04 campus in Brazil and QR03 in Mexico, as reported by Intelligent CIO LATAM.
Projected · Reported investment
US$200m
Estimated investment in the redesigned, air-cooled Cerrillos data centre near Santiago.
Our commentary (not advice): Latin American data centre money is led by US hyperscalers' long-dated pledges and by a few very large single projects, such as Omnia's campus for ByteDance at Pecém. Two things decide how much of it turns into running capacity: grid access (Brazil's data centre requests of 38 GW dwarf the 7,040 MW ONS has accepted) and rules, such as Brazil's Redata tax regime, which still needs its implementing regulation. In Chile, Santiago's vacancy of 4.3% and the AWS region due by the end of 2026 point to tight supply. Regional detail: Latin America data centres.
Planned: company guidance Forecast
- Microsoft: about US$170bn, Calendar year (stated on the 28 October 2026 call). Capital expenditure including finance leases (Microsoft records the full principal value of finance leases in capex at lease commencement). Given 28 Oct 2026. Microsoft Investor Relations: Fiscal Year 2027 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call (opens in a new tab)
- Alphabet: US$195bn to US$205bn, 2026. Company-wide capital expenditure. Given 28 Oct 2026. CNBC: Alphabet (GOOGL) earnings Q3 2026 (opens in a new tab)
- Amazon: about US$220bn, 2026. Cash capital expenditures (Amazon's own measure, net of proceeds and incentives, so it differs from gross purchases of property and equipment). Given 29 Oct 2026. Amazon.com, Inc.: Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Results (opens in a new tab)
- Meta: US$135bn to US$145bn, 2026. Capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases. Given 21 Oct 2026. Meta Platforms (SEC Form 8-K, exhibit 99.1): Meta Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab)
- Oracle: US$90bn to US$95bn, Fiscal 2027 (June 2026 to May 2027). Capital expenditure; Oracle also said net cash capex, net of customer prepayments, would be not more than $70 billion. Given 10 Sept 2026. The Motley Fool (call transcript): Oracle (ORCL) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Transcript (opens in a new tab)
- SpaceX: US$35bn to US$40bn of capital investment planned for Q4 2026. Q3 2026 capital expenditure was US$19.6bn as SpaceX builds Colossus II and invests in Starship. CFO forecast on the results livestream; Q3 figure from the regulatory filing, both as reported by TechCrunch. TechCrunch: SpaceX's AI business is beating expectations (opens in a new tab)
Committed: disclosed future payments Committed
Anthropic · 26 Oct 2026
US$542bn to US$567bn of compute and infrastructure commitments
Fortune's total: about US$417bn of agreements with future minimum payments, plus an estimated US$125bn to US$150bn for capacity delivered in 2028 to 2031, where terms are not final and the S-1 gives a range. Datacenterfeed notes the S-1 separately lists about US$245bn signed after 30 June 2026 plus about US$21bn of short-term agreements, which Fortune's range does not mention.
Basis: Company disclosure in an S-1 registration statement that has not yet become effective, as reported by the press. Commitments are future payments, not money spent.
Sources: Fortune: Anthropic plans to spend up to $567 billion on compute and set up its own data centers, S-1 reveals (opens in a new tab), Datacenterfeed: Anthropic's S-1 Discloses $417 Billion in Added Compute Commitments (opens in a new tab)
Anthropic · 26 Oct 2026
Anthropic Direct: US$125.2bn of rent over a five-year lease, excluding interest
Partners secure real estate, power and facilities and run the data centres; Anthropic leases the compute. Agreements began around 30 September 2026.
Basis: Lease commitments disclosed in the S-1, as reported by Fortune.
Reported deals Reported, not confirmed
20 Oct 2026 · Status: In talks, not signed
Anthropic and Nscale: talks on a second deal worth about US$45bn for another 460 MW building in West Virginia
Originally reported by Bloomberg first; CNBC and Reuters from a source. CNBC: Anthropic in talks for second $45 billion Nscale data center deal: source (opens in a new tab)
29 Oct 2026 · Status: In talks, not signed
NVIDIA in talks to guarantee Nscale debt for the 460 MW building Anthropic plans to use
Originally reported by The Information; Bloomberg. The Next Web: Nvidia in talks to guarantee debt for Nscale's Anthropic data centre (opens in a new tab)
More reported developments are on AI news.
Capacity: running vs planned
Show data (3 figures)
| Company | Type | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX (Super Intelligence) | Operational | 1.7 GW of compute Reported for the neocloud business in Q3 2026. 20 Oct 2026. | TechCrunch: SpaceX's AI business is beating expectations (opens in a new tab) |
| Meta | Planned | About 1 million GPUs at full scale Prometheus in New Albany, Ohio. Today it has hundreds of thousands of GPUs; the first phase is complete. 19 Oct 2026. | Engineering at Meta: Inside Prometheus: Meta's Journey to a Gigawatt-Scale Supercluster (opens in a new tab) |
| Google Cloud | Planned | Up to 960,000 Rubin GPUs across multiple sites A5X general availability is due next month (November 2026). 21 Oct 2026. | NVIDIA Blog: Google Cloud and NVIDIA Announce General Availability of NVIDIA Vera Rubin Infrastructure (opens in a new tab) |
GW of compute and GPU counts measure different things and are not added together.
Watch
Official videos from the International Energy Agency, Amazon and NVIDIA. They load from YouTube only when you press play. Company videos are promotional, so check figures against the filings above.
Companies are listed for information only. This is not investment advice. Compare markets on Compare markets.
Common questions
Who pays for all these data centres?
Mainly the big tech companies from their own profits, plus a growing amount of borrowed money and investment funds.
What is capex?
Capital expenditure: money a company spends on long-lasting things like buildings, servers and equipment.
Why it matters Big Tech capex is the clearest public sign of how much is being built for AI.
Is there an AI bubble?
Nobody knows. Some analysts warn of one and others do not. We show their views as clearly labelled predictions next to the known facts.
Why it matters Nothing on this site is investment advice.
Where do the money figures come from?
From company filings and named reports, each linked next to the number.
Is AI capex paying off?
Partly. Cloud revenue at AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud grew 39% to 103% in the year to Q3 2026, but their parent companies' capex grew faster and was larger than cloud revenue in the quarter.
Why it matters Cloud revenue is the clearest public sign that the new data centres are being filled and paid for.
Source: Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet Q3 2026 results (SEC Form 8-K)
Which US utilities plan to spend the most on capex for data centre growth?
Among six large utilities serving data centre load, Duke Energy (US$103bn for 2026 to 2030) and AEP (US$100bn for 2027 to 2031) have the largest five-year capital plans, followed by Southern Company, Xcel Energy, Entergy and Dominion Energy.
Why it matters Data centres need generation, substations and transmission lines before they can be energised, so these plans show where grid capacity is being built.
Source: Company filings and results releases: Duke Energy, AEP, Southern Company, Xcel Energy, Entergy, Dominion Energy
SK hynix vs Micron vs TSMC: whose revenue grew fastest in 2026?
Comparing the July to September 2026 quarter with a year earlier, SK hynix's revenue rose 328% to 104.6 trillion won and Micron's latest quarter was 379% higher at US$54.2bn (a 14-week quarter), while TSMC grew 51% to NT$1,494bn (US$46.7bn).
Why it matters AI servers need memory as well as processors, and memory prices rose as demand for AI memory such as HBM grew, so memory makers' revenue and margins jumped fastest.
- SK hynix operating margin 80% (3Q26)
- Micron operating margin 80.7% (fiscal Q4 2026)
- TSMC operating margin 58.7% (3Q26)
Source: TSMC 3Q26 Management Report, SK hynix 3Q26 results release, Micron fiscal Q4 2026 results (SEC 8-K)
Which data centre cooling companies have been bought, and for how much?
Big deals since late 2024 include Eaton buying Boyd Thermal for US$9.5bn, Ecolab buying CoolIT Systems for about US$4.75bn, SLB agreeing to buy Kelvion for about US$3.4bn in cash plus about US$0.7bn of debt, Samsung buying FläktGroup for €1.5bn and Vertiv buying PurgeRite for about US$1.0bn. Trane Technologies (LiquidStack) and Johnson Controls (Alloy Enterprises) did not disclose prices.
Why it matters Buyers stated about 29 times EBITDA for CoolIT and 22.5 times for Boyd Thermal, against about 9 to 13 times for the power deals with a multiple (buyers' figures and our calculation).
Source: Company announcements from Eaton, Ecolab, SLB, Samsung, Vertiv, Trane Technologies and Johnson Controls
What did Eaton report for Q3 2026?
Eaton's sales rose 28% to a record US$8.9bn in the July to September 2026 quarter, with 19% organic growth, and its Electrical backlog was 46% higher than a year earlier.
Why it matters Part of the jump is bought: Boyd Thermal, the liquid cooling maker Eaton acquired in March 2026, added 31 percentage points to Electrical Global's 58% sales growth.
- Sales US$8.9bn, up 28% (19% organic)
- Electrical backlog up 46% (Electrical Global up 121%)
- Full-year 2026 organic growth guidance 13% to 15% (company forecast)
Source: Eaton third quarter 2026 results press release (Business Wire, 3 Nov 2026)
What are Anthropic and OpenAI valued at?
Anthropic was valued at US$965bn post-money after its US$65bn Series H on 28 May 2026. OpenAI was valued at US$852bn post-money after its US$122bn round closed on 31 Mar 2026. Mistral AI was valued at more than €21bn after its €3bn Series D on 8 Sep 2026.
Why it matters These labs sign many of the largest data centre, chip and cloud contracts, so the money they raise sets how much compute they can pay for.
- Anthropic US$965bn (Series H, May 2026)
- OpenAI US$852bn (March 2026)
- Mistral AI more than €21bn (Series D, September 2026)
Source: Anthropic, OpenAI and Mistral AI funding announcements
How much did AMD's data centre business grow in Q3 2026?
AMD's Data Center segment sold US$8.5bn in the quarter to 26 September 2026, almost twice the US$4.3bn of a year earlier, and AMD expects about US$17bn of total revenue in Q4 2026, plus or minus 3% (its own forecast).
Why it matters Every AMD GPU and server CPU sold goes into a rack that needs power and cooling, so its data centre sales are a read-across for data centre builders.
- Data Center revenue US$8.5bn, up 97%
- 64% of AMD revenue from data centres
- Q4 2026 guidance about US$17bn (AMD forecast)
Source: AMD Q3 2026 earnings release, 3 Nov 2026
How much are Big Tech companies borrowing for AI in 2026?
Far more than a year earlier. In the first nine months of 2026 Amazon borrowed about US$115bn, Alphabet about US$85bn and Meta about US$25bn, and between 29 October and 3 November 2026 Microsoft (US$25bn), Meta (US$15bn), Oracle (US$10bn) and Alphabet (€6bn) priced new bonds.
Why it matters Borrowing now pays for a large share of data centre building, so open bond markets matter to cooling, power and construction suppliers as well as cash flow.
- Amazon new long-term borrowing US$115.1bn in 9 months of 2026, against US$0.7bn a year earlier
- Alphabet long-term debt US$126.1bn at 30 September 2026
- Oracle's 2046 notes carry an 8.650% coupon
Source: Company 10-Q filings for Q3 2026 and bond term sheets on SEC EDGAR, 29 Oct to 4 Nov 2026
How did Supermicro and Arista do in Q3 2026?
Both grew fast in the quarter to 30 September 2026. Supermicro's net sales nearly quadrupled to US$19.9bn (preliminary) and Arista's revenue rose 58.5% to US$3.66bn. Arista kept far more of each dollar as operating income (about 45%) than Supermicro (about 10%), and Supermicro's operating cash flow was negative because receivables and inventory grew.
Why it matters Servers and switches are bought just before racks are powered and cooled, so these results are an early read on how many AI racks are about to need liquid cooling and power.
- Supermicro net sales US$19.9bn, up from US$5.0bn a year earlier
- Arista revenue US$3.66bn, Q4 2026 guidance US$3.9bn to US$4.0bn (Arista forecast)
- Supermicro target of more than 4,000 direct liquid cooled racks a month by December 2026 (company target)
Source: Supermicro and Arista results releases, 3 Nov 2026, and earnings call transcripts
How much does electricity cost in European data centre markets in 2026?
On the wholesale market, power in the UK averaged about €124 per MWh from January to October 2026, up from about €96 in the same months of 2025. Italy was the dearest of the 13 markets we track (about €154) and Finland the cheapest (about €58). A data centre pays more than this, because network charges, taxes and supplier margins come on top.
Why it matters Electricity is the biggest running cost of a data centre, so the price gap between countries is one of the things that decides where new capacity is built.
- UK wholesale average €123.7 per MWh, January to October 2026 (our calculation from Ember's monthly data)
- 1 MW running all year at that price: about €1.08m of wholesale energy (our calculation)
- All 13 markets averaged more in January to October 2026 than in the same months of 2025
Source: Ember, European Wholesale Electricity Price Data (from ENTSO-E, EMR and SEMOpx), accessed 4 Nov 2026
Did CoreWeave beat its Q3 2026 guidance?
Yes on revenue and adjusted operating income: CoreWeave reported US$3.66bn of revenue for the quarter to 30 September 2026, above its own range of US$3.45bn to US$3.6bn, and US$379m of adjusted operating income, above US$200m to US$260m. It also spent more than planned: capex was US$14.5bn against a range of US$11.5bn to US$13.5bn.
Why it matters CoreWeave is one of the biggest single buyers of data centre power and cooling, so its spending shows how fast AI capacity is being fitted out.
- Active power more than 1.7 GW and contracted power more than 4.6 GW at 30 September 2026
- Revenue backlog about US$132.5bn
- 2026 revenue guidance raised to US$13.0bn to US$13.3bn (company forecast)
Source: CoreWeave Q3 2026 results release and earnings call, 10 Nov 2026; Q3 guidance from its 11 Aug 2026 call. Not investment advice.
How fast are data centre cooling orders growing at Carrier and Johnson Controls?
Very fast: Carrier said its data centre orders rose about 300% in July to September 2026 on a year earlier, and Johnson Controls' orders in the Americas rose 58%, which it put down to sustained data centre demand.
Why it matters Chillers and coolant distribution units are ordered months before a data centre opens, so these order books show the cooling plant still to be delivered.
- Carrier backlog more than US$8.5bn, up 60%, at 30 September 2026
- Johnson Controls backlog US$23.0bn, up 43% organically
- Carrier data centre sales more than US$550m in the quarter, with a US$2bn target for 2026 (company target)
Source: Carrier Q3 2026 results release and call, 29 Oct 2026; Johnson Controls fiscal Q4 2026 results release, 27 Oct 2026. Not investment advice.
Why did Digital Realty and Goodman buy 9.9% of NEXTDC?
They have not given a reason beyond seeking to work with NEXTDC's board on the challenges facing the company. They bought 9.9% at an average A$9.22 a share from 3 to 6 November 2026, after NEXTDC's shares fell when it cut its FY27 guidance over a power delay at its M3 Melbourne campus, and both reserve the right to bid for control later.
Why it matters The stake shows how a single grid connection delay can move the value of a data centre operator, and puts two large operators on NEXTDC's share register.
- 75,215,528 shares, about A$693.7m in total (our calculation from the Form 603 notice)
- FY27 net revenue guidance cut from A$615m to A$640m to A$475m to A$500m on 21 October 2026 (company guidance)
- Forward order book 565.1 MW at 30 June 2026 (pro forma)
Source: Goodman Group and Digital Realty ASX release and Form 603 notice, 9 Nov 2026; NEXTDC ASX releases of 27 Aug and 21 Oct 2026. Not investment advice.
When does Nebius report Q3 2026 results, and what are analysts expecting?
Nebius reports its third-quarter 2026 results before the US market opens on Thursday 12 November 2026, with a call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time. The Zacks consensus estimate published on 9 November was revenue of US$916.78m and a loss of 61 cents a share, against Q2 revenue of US$582.3m. Nebius gave no guidance for Q3 alone; its 2026 guidance is US$3.0bn to US$3.4bn of revenue and US$7bn to US$9bn of annualised run-rate revenue by the end of the year.
Why it matters Nebius is a neocloud building AI data centres in Europe and the US, so its revenue, capex and connected power show whether contracted capacity is being built and paid for on time.
- Q3 2026 revenue consensus US$916.78m (Zacks, 9 Nov 2026, analyst forecast)
- ARR US$3.0bn at 30 June 2026; guidance US$7bn to US$9bn by end-2026 (company forecast)
- 2026 capex guidance US$20bn to US$25bn, raised from US$16bn to US$20bn in May (company forecast)
Source: Nebius results release and shareholder letter of 12 Aug 2026, Q1 2026 call of 13 May 2026, results date notice of 30 Oct 2026; Zacks via Yahoo Finance, 9 Nov 2026. Not investment advice.